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  1. #511
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    Default Data on attached file

    Hi Ananda,

    I'm a newbie and I have a question.

    I find the data on "up" and "down" volume, number of advancers and decliners interesting. Would you know if these data are available for ASX or NZX? Also is the "up" and "down" volume for each counter available?

    Cheers

  2. #512
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tee View Post
    I'm a newbie and I have a question.
    I find the data on "up" and "down" volume, number of advancers and decliners interesting. Would you know if these data are available for ASX or NZX? Also is the "up" and "down" volume for each counter available? Cheers
    Hi Tee,

    ...no idea what market internals are available on the ASX or NZX; you could check that out on their respective websites; as far as the up/down volume is concerned, have only the NYSE and NASDAQ data set since trading the US indexes only;

    Kind Regards

  3. #513
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    -Initial jobless claims: Actual 545K, consensus 555K, prior 557K (revised from 550K)
    -Continuing claims: Actual 6230K, consensus 6100K, prior 6088K
    -Housing Starts: Actual 598K, consensus 583K, prior 589K (revised from 581K)
    -Building permits: Actual 579K, consensus 598K, prior 564K
    -Philly Fed: Actual 14.1, consensus 8.0, prior 4.2

    ... SPX 500 set another 11-month High *1075 early; after that, the market decided to go for a light profit-taking retrace supported at intraday Low *1061; as a consequence, *1082 remains an immdiate target

    ...at *1082, risk increases for a minimum shake-out back to *1027/*1035 congestion, given the worsening bearish divergences in daily momentum

    ...downside risks are starting to dominate upside potential

    ...as far as the NYSE concerned, values are touching top of channel and breaking out of the channel would mean Blow-Off Territory (see attachment)

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: short 10% equity covered; short bias (+); with equity exposure;

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 18-09-2009 at 10:23 AM.

  4. #514
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    Any idea on how Mr Bernanke's statement on the recession will have on the US markets?
    And I could not help noticing that you employ hedging and I was wondering whether hedging costs will be higher than say internet brokerage.(During "down" months, my brokerage as a percentage of net profit/loss is pretty high.)

  5. #515
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    Tee:

    ...just to give you an idea how the market reacted to the Bernanke/Buffet Ramp yesterday, take a look at the NEW HIGHS compared to the SPX 500 in 2007 and now:

    (see attachment)

    ...all important liquidity inflows (thanks to Fed pumping) remain at extreme high levels at present creating a possibility of upside run-away gaps if Institutions don't start some profit taking
    ...at the same time, the major US indexes are developing negative MACD divergences currently not playing out due to very high short term RSI data
    ...markets are stretched and this sort of short term strength will be difficult to maintain
    ...consequently confident, hedging will pay dividend soon; by the way Tee, hedging in upward trends > neutral = no/minimal cost; it is only when markets become top-heavy that hedging is applied; cost on profits according to hedge book 10% at present;

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 19-09-2009 at 07:22 AM.

  6. #516
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    Bond Market:

    16:01 ET 10-Yr: -23/32..3.469%.. USD/JPY: 91.4180.. EUR/USD: 1.4701
    Slammed: Treasuries were hit on the session with the mid-curve leading the move lower as the market considers the record supply on tap and players squared-up into the weekend. The auctions kick off Tuesday with the $43B 2-yrs, $40B 5s and $29B 7s with $27B 1-yrs Tuesday, $29B each of 3-and-6-mos Monday. The session saw wafer thin trade and was knocked lower with no data or other market movers to help things along. The week saw big size in corporate and sovereign issuance and trade is setting up for more of the same next week on top of the government offerings. The economic calendar starts pretty slow, with the FOMC kicking off Tuesday and junior league data through the week until Thursday. The curve came in flattening but unwound into the late session to take the 2-10-yr yield spread to 248, but the bias remains on the flatter slant. The dollar was given a breather from its recent sell-off, although it did nothing impressive and the index was stalled near 76.50. The euro was battling to hold over 1.4700 and is expected to return to the recent highs early in the week while holding near the month's best on the yen. The yen will likely have a little more trouble staying bid as the safety plays continue to pull back, but has been able to remain near the 7-mo highs. The Fed will be in doing a single bond buying operation Monday, getting into the 2013 to 2016 maturity range. The day has only leading indicators (10) while Fed-speak should remain on hold through the FOMC statement Wednesday.

    NY Fed purchased $4.05 bln in agency debt maturing from Oct 2010 - Sep 2011

    Stock Market:

    ...SPX 500 trading mixed below the September 17 High *1075 on quadruple witching Friday; despite the fact that the index stayed in positive territory after laboring back from intra-day Low *1064, the whole market was neutral at best; as a consequence, the immediate target *1082/*1090/*1119 is still in play for next week

    ...at this level however, risk increases for a minimum shake-out back to *1027/*1035 congestion, given the worsening bearish divergences in daily momentum and negative MACD in the major US indexes

    ...the implication of the correction could be the start of a double top process which would be confirmed by a second test and subsequent failure of the *1082/*1090/*1119 level

    ...as far as the Fed Ramp of the Stock Markets is concerned (see attachment)

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: short 10% equity covered; short bias (+); with equity exposure;

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 19-09-2009 at 07:26 AM.

  7. #517
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    The QE is basically doing what it should. The crunch should come when the program is wound back. I'm not expecting the 'crunch' to be significant thos - mainly just a slow down in the rise.
    Hi Belgarion, although tend to agree so far, there are a couple of things I like to point out, which makes the whole show suspect

    Headwinds:

    -lack of income growth
    -wealth destruction
    -credit tight as ever
    -Green Shoots may be no more or less, than correcting an over correction in business activity during the worst of the crisis when business cut back production to hard -plus a bit of stimulus induced growth

    Stocks:

    -valued on far to over optimistic earnings expectations at present
    -prices driven up really hard by hedge funds, zombie banks, and power brokers using their superior market positions and (illegal) trading strategies like Flash- and HFT trading
    -instead of using the funds the Fed is virtually paying them to borrow and channel them into the economy, they use the funds for speculative purposes only
    -when valuations are at a point that even the most deluded punter realizes it is time to quit, it is them who take the opposite side of the trading and drive the whole show down

    Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession anchored just east of Singapore
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/mosl...-Singapore.htm

    Kind Regards

  8. #518
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    BDI index down for the 7th day in a row, doesn't bode well for commodities. Also of note is that the BDI index bottomed Dec 08 started to rise about 3 1/2 months before the march 'rally'. Peaked beginning of June and has been trending down for the 3 1/2 months since.

  9. #519
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    US Calendar:

    Sep 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Aug 0.6% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 0.6%
    (The leading indicator index does not provide much information on where the economy is headed. It is composed of 7 key economic variables that are known prior to the release and 3 estimated components. Therefore, the only differences between the actual indicator and the consensus is due to the estimation techiniques for money supply, new orders of nondefense captial goods, and new orders for consumer goods. Usually the differences between the leading indicator estimates and consensus estimates for these variables are minor and do not effect the overall index)

    Bond Market:

    15:33 ET 10-Yr: -02/32..3.471%.. USD/JPY: 92.0225.. EUR/USD: 1.4684
    Clinging to Gains: The dollar has backed off its better levels but is still holding at better levels on the majors in slowed, holiday infected trade. The index has gotten caught near 76.75 after its early push through 77. The euro has been holding near the 1.4683 level on the buck, while being able to tick back up to get 135.20 yen per euro. The yen has been stalled out near 92.00 on the buck, ticking either side in a quite Japanese holiday session. The pound remains under pressure, trading near September's lows, with extended "quantitative easing" talk with the BOE due 9/23. The general short covering rally on the buck may see some follow through Tuesday with the FOMC sitting in the wings and players continue to square-up, but there is no chance the Fed will be doing anything on rates, and the statement will likely offer little for dollar trade. There‘s little in the way of EuroZone or Japanese reports due. Gold and crude continue to suffer as the buck gets bid with spot now 1003.40 (-4.20) while crude is on offer with November closing 69.93 (-3.56)

    -Fed bought $4.050B of the $15.299B dealers dumping in the 2013 to 2016 maturity range-

    Stock Market:

    ...SPX 500 still below the September 17 High *1075 trading with a slightly more bullish tone in Monday's session; maybe the Japenese holidays could be blamed for the restful attitude of the market since the index manages only a recovery from intraday Low *1057 and closes down at *1065;

    ...although decliners leading advancers more than 2:1 on quite negative volume, there remains short term strength in the market to achieve the immediate target *1082/*1090/*1119 level still in play for later this week;

    ...on a cautionary note, the market seems to loose more and more momentum and the outlook for a topping process strengthens

    ...consequently, at *1082/*1090/*1119 risk increases for a minimum shake-out back to *1027/*1035 congestion and the implication of such a correction could be the start of a double top process which would be confirmed by a second test and subsequent failure of the *1082/*1090/*1119 level

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: short 10% equity covered; short bias (+); with equity exposure;

    Long Term: THE BEAR

  10. #520
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    US Calendar:

    U.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.3% in Jul, but fell 4.2% vs year-ago reading

    Bond Market:
    15:58 ET 10-Yr: +09/32..3.446%.. USD/JPY: 91.1800.. EUR/USD: 1.4800

    Bid in Face of Supply, FOMC: Treasuries were able to come back from early selling with the 5-yrs leading the way higher ahead of a record $40B auction tomorrow and the FOMC statement in what should remain thinned trade. The market is once again running with stocks, trading higher even as riskier plays are renewed and supply crowds the bond market. On top of the record 5-yr issue there remains another record sized $29B 7-yr set to go off Thursday, the only of the big, new coupon issues on the week to get in behind the Fed's updates on stimulus plans, exit strategies and economic outlook. The statement will not likely be drastically changed, but there will be some note taking of better general numbers and some reference to the soon-to-be-over, dwindling, bond buyback operation (there is no meeting between now and the end of October) and potentially some talk of additions to the mortgage related programs set to end year-end. The market has become fairly well accustomed to supply and, possibly, a touch overconfident in the face of the deluge as offering after offering goes smoothly if not well. The market got a little spooked after the early 1-yr bill went only OK, but recovered well on the 2-yrs highest demand ratio in 2 years. The curve was ultimately swung well flatter with the 2-10-yr yield spread now 248.7 from near 252 in early trade. The dollar has been taken back down, seeing a year low in the index and against the euro, while flirting with its worst on the yen in 7 months. The euro took out 1.48 but couldn't hold while the yen was able to keep itself near 91. The day ahead has the FOMC (14:15) statement and the $40B 5-yr auction (13), meaning a potential snoozer, or crazy, indefinable, low-volume swings.

    Stock Market:

    ...SPX 500 still below the September 17 High *1075 with bullish sentiment becoming more apparent in Tuesdays' session; it seems the upside break-out is almost a fact, maybe it is the Japenese holidays holding it back at present;

    ... the index found renewed support above yesterdays' Low *1065 and remained range bound consolidating comfortably between *1057/*1075 support/resistance

    ...advancers outpaced decliners 2:1 and as long as a positive accumulating tick indicates continued buying pressure within this level, the market will achieve the immediate target *1082/*1090/*1119 level later this week or during next weeks' trading; although NYSE up/down volume is strongly positive, NASDAQ up/down volume diverges negatively to almost 1:1 towards the end of the trading session

    ...on a cautionary note: downside risks are starting to overshadow upside potential and a possible failure at *1082/*1090/*1119 increases risk for a minimum shake-out back to *1027/*1035 congestion and the implication of such a correction could be the start of a double top process which would be confirmed by a second test and subsequent failure of the *1082/*1090/*1119 level;

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: short 10% equity covered; short bias (+); with equity exposure;

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards

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