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  1. #521
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    US Calendar:
    FOMC left rates unchanged (0.25%), elevated econ view, inflation tame, MBS pace slowed

    Bond Market:
    14:52 ET 10-Yr: +03+/32..3.431%.. USD/JPY: 91.0875.. EUR/USD: 1.4807
    Buck Beat Down: The buck got taken out following the FOMC, with the promise of continually low rates in a slow, plodding growth scenario, the index was clocked to make new year lows and trade back to early August 08 levels. The euro was flung back through to near 1.4845 on the news. The yen took a delayed reaction run back through to 90.85 from just off the session high near 91.50 while paring some of its losses on the euro in the process. The run-off on the buck allowed the gold to make a run at session highs with spot now 1015.00 (+0.50) while crude was unable to get much back in the face of prolonged slow domestic, demand, now 68.99 (-2.77).

    Stock Market:
    ...as expected, SPX 500 traded higher into lower end of immediate target *1082/*1090/*1119 level after FOMC statement; at this stage, a brief slip back of the index to affirm the current *1057 trading range floor is possible

    ...the US economic calendar features Initial Claims tomorrow 24 September and disappointment could threaten the *1057 support; failure at this level would increase risk for a minimum shake-out back to *1027/*1035 congestion and the implication of such a correction could be the start of a double top process which would be confirmed by a second test and subsequent failure of the *1082/*1090/*1119 level;

    ...on a cautionary note: downside risks based on momentum and VIX cycle studies are starting to overshadow upside potential and possible failure at *1082/*1090/*1119 (see attachments)

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: short 10% equity covered; short bias (+); with equity exposure;

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 24-09-2009 at 06:22 AM.

  2. #522
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    Vic continuing its cycle up as you say A77, currently up 5.62% and approaching 25. Fed announced it is scaling back 2 stimulus methods, firstly the amound of money available to the banks in the short term under TAF.
    Secondly it is scaling back the program where investment firms can swap dodgy securities for safer treasury ones. Sales of exisiting homes fell for the first time since march, 2.7% drop in august.
    On the other side 7 year bond went well with bid to cover at 2.79.

  3. #523
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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  4. #524
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    US Calendar:
    U.S. initial jobless claims 21k to 530k, below median 546k for Sep-19 week
    U.S. existing home sales sank 2.7% to 5.10 mln in Aug, below median 5.35 mln

    Bond Market:
    15:36 ET 10-Yr: +12/32..3.374%.. USD/JPY: 91.2400.. EUR/USD: 1.4656
    Ramped Up: Bonds backed off the highs on profit-taking heading into the close, but are holding the best levels in a week on the shorter end and in 2 weeks on the 7-30-yrs. The market is done for the week as far as big events are concerned and came through with, if not flying colors, parasailing ones. The record $29B 7-yr offering today went very well, coming on the back of an OK 5-yr and solid 2-yr. It helped that it is the final big offering for the quarter, buffered by other window dressing buyers and general newly minted safety buyers. The day's data was a mixed bag, but mostly bond friendly. That the Fed and assorted central banks are saying they are reeling in (via baby-steps) some measures of liquidity-pumping, which is giving hope that they will be able to wiggle out of the bailout mess without blowing things up. EuroZone bonds also got boosted, with added push as the deteriorating housing report put some doubt on the recovery story. Treasuries will likely be giving some back into Friday's session, with little in the way of market movers on tap, but with a recess from large supply and general safe-haven concerns there will be a floor under prices and the 10-yr should be able to stay clear of the 3.475% yield level. The curve was generally flatter, but in a fairly tame range with the 2-10-yr yield spread 243.9. The dollar took off as safety buyers stepped in, stock slumped and commodity prices crumbled. The index was able to get back to the 77 handle as the removal of funds is a step toward higher rates. The euro was clocked back to the 1.4630 area after topping out just over 1.4802, while backing off eventually on against the yen from a mid-session 134.30 to 133.60. The yen was backed up 1.4% from overnight levels on the buck, but spent the last hour working back some ground. The pound got slammed to a 5-mo low as officials show little concern over its dropping value. The day ahead has durable orders (8:30), revised UofM sentiment (9:55) and new home sales (10), while Fed-speak is popping again with gov Warsh speaking on the economy (13).

    Stock Market:
    ...as expected, the economic data set out this morning disappointed and the SPX 500 extended the downslide
    ...short term support *1057 taken out decisively but the market stopped short to affirm Aug 28 High *1039/ Sep 14 Low *1035 and the market is mounting an attempt of a recovery on intraday Low *1046
    …...the first market top of a possible double top process is in place and rest assured, this top needs to be tested for the market to stake out its future territory; considering the bearish undertone in the market at present, it is very unlikely however, that a sustainable bottom for a second test of the *1082/*1090/*1119 level could be in place without a thorough test of *1039/*1035/*1027

    ...further 'undercover' indications for a possible topping process: institutional buy/sell spread narrowing with a new High in selling (see attachment)

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: short 10% equity covered; short bias (+); with equity exposure;

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 25-09-2009 at 08:01 AM.

  5. #525
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    US Economic Calendar:
    U.S. new home sales rose 0.7% to 429k in Aug, below median 445k vs 426k Jul
    U.S. durable goods orders sank 2.4% in Aug, below median 0.5% vs 4.8%
    U.S. consumer sentiment (final) rose to 73.5 in Sep, above prelim & 70.4 median (Sentiment readings are a reflection of a variety of events rather than an accurate tool for forecasting consumer spending. Gas prices and political events can have an outsized impact on sentiment. In general, these data are of very little economic value)

    Stock Market:

    ...SPX 500 traded back from intraday Low *1041 and as a result, established the upper end of the Aug 28 High *1039/Sep 14 Low *1035 range as first line support

    ...possible contributing factors to the result:
    -liquidity inflows remain strongly in positive territory
    -(+1088) Tick buying power on the NYSE past the intraday Low
    -end of Q3 window dressing may have kept stocks elevated

    ...the relative shallow sell-off so far starting two sessions ago and todays' relative strong performance could indicate a second test of the *1082/*1090/*1119 level in the not too distant future

    ...a cautionary note from Kevin Lane (Fusion IQ): (see attachment) and considering current fundamentals or 'funnymentals' as mentioned in some trading circles, a double top between the *1082/*1119 level should trigger a sharp 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 that should affirm its July Low *869 before stabilizing

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: short 10% equity covered; short bias (+); with equity exposure;

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards

  6. #526
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    Things are looking a bit fragile. I sense the beginnings of a pullback ...
    ...traders have been extremely careful not to let momentum slip too close to the SPX 500 *1039 (Dow *9630) level today;

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 26-09-2009 at 10:39 AM.

  7. #527
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    US Calendar:
    empty

    Bond Market:
    Treasury yields rangebound near lows amid holiday-thinned trade, despite firm stocks
    USD-JPY rebounded back above 89.0 vs 88.2 trend low, half-year end flows abating
    USD index bounced 0.4% to 76.90 despite stock rally and firm bond market

    Stock Market:

    Marketwatch:
    Recouping last week's loss
    Wall Street plays off fresh merger activity as Abbott Labs and Xerox announce multi billion-dollar deals

    ...SPX 500 defended the upper end of the Aug 28 High *1039/Sep 14 Low *1035 range and surged higher in what could turn out the early stages of another bull run towards the *1080/*1090/*1119 range in the near future

    ...the advance featured so far today:
    -NYSE advance/decline ratio ~ 4:1
    -NYSE strong up-volume within unspectacular total volume
    -market direction neutral to bullish
    -(-460/+226 buying power) diminishing towards day end
    -selling into the most bullish market phase apparent

    ...as a result, until the index closes above the Sep 17 Peak *1075, the early stages of the envisioned bull run could include a second testing of support with a downside break-out possible

    ...looking ahead, a double top between *1080/*1092/*1119 should trigger a sharp 20% (+) sell-off during most of Q4 that should affirm its July low at 869 before stabilizing

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: short 10% equity covered; short bias (+); with equity exposure;

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

  8. #528
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    Smile Ananda77

    It's amazing how we miss your posts when you don't check in. I guess there are more of us lurking and reading than one realises. Maybe we are becoming to reliant on your updates.

  9. #529
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    ...too busy even to fit in a proper update until around 10th October but try to post if there is a dramatic change in trend

    ...taking out SPX 500 *1075 still relevant for a bullish turn around with the minimum hurdle being *1069; trading under *1069 Close is bearish; trading above *1069 start of bullish sentiment returning for a second test of *1080/*1092/*1119 range

    Kind Regards

  10. #530
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    ...writing in between jobs, today's update seems to be an easy one as the SPX 500, as mentioned stuck to *1041 support area and surged higher; have not checked market internals but looks like today's trading is the overture to another test of *1080/*1092/*1119 range;

    ...failure > double top established > 20% (+) correction

    ...break-out > more in the next update, but currently not my favorite option

    Kind Regards

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