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Thread: Dow

  1. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by trendy View Post
    I believe the Dow heading to 8k and then will turn. 8k is the support level on the long-term linear growth charts. Last 10 years of exponential growth are over. We will not pull out of recession until 2010 at the earliest.

    Guys you wouldn't believe the level of personal debt Americans hold. It makes Kiwi's personal debt levels look like a drop in the ocean.

    We know some people earning US$300k who are maxed out on all credit lines....it takes years of easy and low cost credit to get a culture in this position.

    It's all coming home to roost now.
    Not far now to 8000.....but will be 2010 at the earliest before we pull out of recession. Trust me everyone has stopped spending their discretionary income.
    The trend is your friend.

  2. #77
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    I just watch the DOW jump up 750 points in 45 minutes!

    Someone must have said somethig???

    Bounced off 8000 but jump off 8100 to 8850 and still open. should make an interesting candle.
    Last edited by Financially dependant; 11-10-2008 at 07:52 AM. Reason: numbers

  3. #78
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    That had all the markings of government intervention. Look's like they are starting to use the $700B and buying the index.
    The trend is your friend.

  4. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by trendy View Post
    That had all the markings of government intervention. Look's like they are starting to use the $700B and buying the index.
    Presidential Workign Group/Plunge Protection Team?

    Beyond mere coincidence that a world-class slaughter ends on a high note after one of the worst weeks in financial history, in my opinion

  5. #80
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    As tempting as it may be to cite "the Invisible Hand" as the reason for the late rally, don't be tempted.....the stock market is their least concern right now....credit markets must be thawed urgently. If the credit freeze starts to feed through to the corporate sector, there will be no stock market - it would take very little time for companies to collapse if debtors stopped paying their Accounts Payable, especially if the Receiver cannot borrow credit to fill the gap, which is highly possible given the Bank situation.

    If corporate creditors stop paying their bills, others quickly do the same, and the money flow in the Corporate sector comes to a complete standstill.

    You can see why the focus is on restoring interbank money markets.....


    In my view the 1000 pip decline on Friday was continued hedge fund forced liquidation - the 850 pip rally was real money entering the market from the sidelines, in anticipation of G7, G20 coming up with the goods over the weekend

    Monday will tell us if Fridays action was a (imperfect) key day reversal........the last half hour spoiled the perfect set-up

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    Anecdotal evidence of massive private investor selling via 401k and IRA accounts - . People are exchanging assets in their accounts from equity to treasury money market. This is further increasing demand on short dated treasury hence next to zero yields on 3 month t bills. Treasury is having to issue more treasury bills to meet demand.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...xIM&refer=home
    The trend is your friend.

  7. #82
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    In my view the 1000 pip decline on Friday was continued hedge fund forced liquidation - the 850 pip rally was real money entering the market from the sidelines, in anticipation of G7, G20 coming up with the goods over the weekend

    Monday will tell us if Fridays action was a (imperfect) key day reversal........the last half hour spoiled the perfect set-up
    DOW up 936 piparoonies......think we have a bottom in place guys and gals

  8. #83
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    Don't bet on it just yet. Deep recession coming market will grind down...even if gov spend $1trillion on injecting capital into banks.
    The trend is your friend.

  9. #84
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    Why is it, everytime the DOW drops xHundred amount of points they come out with a headline:

    Stocks slump on recession fears

    I mean, we already, have already , constantly already know this , All the time and its like a groundhog day everyday over there with the same news which obviously is not good, but the Norm is becoming the same story each time over and over.

    To me, it is lack of Journalism or words to write about so they just repeat what the obvious is.

  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by drillfix View Post
    Why is it, everytime the DOW drops xHundred amount of points they come out with a headline:

    Stocks slump on recession fears

    I mean, we already, have already , constantly already know this , All the time and its like a groundhog day everyday over there with the same news which obviously is not good, but the Norm is becoming the same story each time over and over.

    To me, it is lack of Journalism or words to write about so they just repeat what the obvious is.
    its the realisation that the current 'crisis' is more than subprime and the credit crisis .... its the realisation that fundamantally the us and other economies are stuffed and that earnings will be down ...... can't be many say ..... in denial last week so when the dow falls again thats the reason ..... recession fears went away last week now back in existence .... you and i might know it but most don't yet drillfix so dont be surprised when yiou read the same headline next week as well

  11. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    its the realisation that the current 'crisis' is more than subprime and the credit crisis .... its the realisation that fundamantally the us and other economies are stuffed and that earnings will be down ...... can't be many say ..... in denial last week so when the dow falls again thats the reason ..... recession fears went away last week now back in existence .... you and i might know it but most don't yet drillfix so dont be surprised when yiou read the same headline next week as well
    I've been as clear as I can about how I think things will continue to unfold.

    The markets and the economy will continue to spiral downward.....regardless of what the empty headed "experts" would have us believe on CNBS...er CNBC

    Wait until layoffs/redundancies/unemployment figures sky(relatively speaking, many 1st world countries have near 20,30,40 year low unemployment using newer skewed to the positive statistics)

    Wait until the US private/public pension underfunding/insolvency problem rears it's ugly head.

    In my opinion, the US and to a lesser extent the global economy, is in a "flat spin".

    Market drops accelerate

    Bailouts accelerate in frequency and scale

    Bankruptcy/Insolvency/Receiverships will accelerate in frequency and scale

    Redundancies/Unemployment will accelerate in frequency and scale

    Leading to forced liquidations of personal/corporate assets

    Until we either hit the ground(complete financial implosion which I strongly doubt) or regain control via reinflation and aerodynamic lift from the denser air and far more appealing low altitude valuations.

    Allowing us to once again achieve stable flight and SLOWLY climb to cruising altitude.

    Personally, I think we've only seen the first few spin rotations.....there's lots more nauseating spinning and screaming, and screaming and spinning before we get low enough for the reinflation rudder and the screaming bargain ailerons to bite.

    Just my personal 0.02c.....hopefully I haven't offended any pilots or aviation fans.

  12. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by drillfix View Post
    Why is it, everytime the DOW drops xHundred amount of points they come out with a headline:

    Stocks slump on recession fears

    I mean, we already, have already , constantly already know this , All the time and its like a groundhog day everyday over there with the same news which obviously is not good, but the Norm is becoming the same story each time over and over.

    To me, it is lack of Journalism or words to write about so they just repeat what the obvious is.
    try this one

    Bush blames the Economic down turn on the President of the US

    Dumb SOB and **** for brains W. Bubba Bush ,blames all this **** on Dick Chaney, he says.

    He told the FWWE news that all was OK until that SOB (Chaney), decided to do some crazy deals with his Buddies(ENRON & OTHERS), or Homies as he calls them.

    He washes his hands of any blame,he claims extreme stupidity and utter ignorance mixed with his mongoloid communication skills plus his desire to be the worst President ever in History, for all that has happened, in this past 84-86 month.

    In a related note,Laura Bush declare her Husband an embarrassment to the mongoloids of the world, when compared to them,and also a useless moron with an peanut shell for brain.

    She added that even in bed he his clueless and if it was not for all those very handsome and virile Secret Service Guys, that screwed her with gusto all this YEARS she would of killed his stupid ass, she added.



    or

    Dow Drops 666; McCain Claims Obama is the Anti-Christ!
    Last edited by dumbass; 23-10-2008 at 08:12 AM.

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    its the realisation that the current 'crisis' is more than subprime and the credit crisis .... its the realisation that fundamantally the us and other economies are stuffed and that earnings will be down ...... can't be many say ..... in denial last week so when the dow falls again thats the reason ..... recession fears went away last week now back in existence .... you and i might know it but most don't yet drillfix so dont be surprised when yiou read the same headline next week as well
    Now that the impending recession headlines have reached morning TV and talk back radio this might be a good sign the bottom is close even if its not going to turn as soon as Belg would have us believe
    Last edited by STRAT; 23-10-2008 at 09:05 PM.

  14. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    note that you could probably substitute breakfast new 'talking heads' for taxi drivers ...
    I was thinking that too

  15. #90
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    Watch the following PBS video on "foreclosure alley". Sobering.

    http://www.kcet.org/socal/2008/09/fo...ure-alley.html
    The trend is your friend.

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