Dow

[baller18]

Man, it's not looking too good is it hoop? sighsss

[Hoop]

Man, it's not looking too good is it hoop? sighsss

In the short and possibly the short/medium term its ugly...and for those who haven't yet suffered a bull market correction of over 10%, I can tell you they do hurt and make you all paranoid...The is why I give out correction warnings on the S&P 500 thread..

Is it the end of theWall St Bull Market Cycle?...No not yet.... it is to early to tell where the market is headed...Looking at the long term chart this recent correcting fall is only a microscopic blip in the grand scheme of things...so to the "buyers and holders" there's no worries yet.

Going on history there has to be a decent Standard Deviation Line break..something less than 15300 within the next week or two..If the correction dropped below 14200 that would be a real worry..

On the positive side Karlos said I mentioned 20000 was possible a couple of years ago...It doesn't look very far away now does it....Xmas 2015 if the DOW stays in its SD channel ( assumes the continuation of the present Bull market cycle )

[Valuegrowth]

There are two schools of thoughts on DOW and other indexes. Eg:

http://www1.realclearmarkets.com/201...15_160941.html

Prof. Siegel: Expect a Big Stock Market Correction in 2015

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102306448#.

Dow could hit 21,500 in 2015, strategist says

Most probably we may see strong correction or beginning of bear market in 2015.

DYOR.

[golden city]

hi anyone can tell me..if we can open broker trading account in nz

[stoploss]

hi anyone can tell me..if we can open broker trading account in nz

You might have to be more specific , where exactly are you trying to open one from ? It is possible to open sharebroker accounts in New Zealand.

[Daytr]

I think very DOW specific we will see corporate earnings hurt in this quarter due to the high dollar & a dump in energy.
Lower energy prices are likely to have a positive impact on retail such as Home Depot & Walmart although consumer confidence has been on the wane.
Obviously the likes Exxon & Chevron will drag down the index considerably.

Most of the DOW companies earn quite a bit offshore & this is where a high dollar hurts.

By the way I have just shorted. ;-)

[kiora]

Maybe interest rates will go up sooner than later with US unemployment dropping ?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11413967

[Daytr]

DOW bounces becoming shorter & shorter, forming lower highs.
I have been batting the DOW back & forth quite successfully for most of the year, picking it up around 17.5k and selling 18.1-2k area & shorting.
Looks like we may see a test of the lows. Apple now being part of the index has been hurting it in recent days as expectations of expanding growth are being reigned in. In percentage terms their growth is likely to come back but in dollar terms its still expanding quickly. Higher USD weighing on multi nationals, soon to be higher interest rates (not such a problem imo).
So I'm a little torn as I back the likes of Apple to come good, however the index itself looks vulnerable.
Perhaps lower first & that creates an opportunity?
Others thoughts?

[Hoop]

DOW bounces becoming shorter & shorter, forming lower highs............. however the index itself looks vulnerable.
Perhaps lower first & that creates an opportunity?
Others thoughts?

I'm going to make an opinionated guess (risk of egg on face) and say .....The 6 year old DOW Bull is dead... it died 5 months ago
Note: ..Not yet confirmed by DOW Theory(Confirmed by DOW transport (considered unreliable these days) but not yet by the S&P500)

I personally think the DOW has been in Stage 1 of a Cyclic Bear Market Cycle for 5 months in the shape of a longer term trading range pattern... Many of my personal Cycle Reversal Indicating "Ducks" have been waddling around in an increasingly lengthening row with other ducks joining the line every now and again since early 2014... Usually Stage 1 of the Bear Cycle is very hard to determine and leading indicators can get slowed down or arrested once formed (e.g FED manipulation) ...that's my excuse if I'm wrong..

Something else to remember with Cycle Theory ...Cycles always go forward, never backwards..they are distance traveled events and not time dependent...therefore a cycle can be slowed or stopped but can not go in reverse..Like death and taxes a bear cycle after a bull cycle is inevitable.

In DOW Theory Stage 1 is the Distribution Phase
This phase can be variable in time...and can take various pattern shapes..Since 1999 the DOW has seen two different types of Stage One Bear Cycles
1... a trading range pattern with one or 2 warning dips that quickly recover due to dip buying. This pattern lasted for many months (8 months in 2000) with only a hint from the straddled MA200 of a slightly bent downward trend.
2...The 2007 stage 1 lasted for only 9 weeks with a double top bearish pattern and consisted of a sharper peak type formation with larger volatility. The Media and the Public think of a bear market cycle as dramatic so they assume every bear cycle will have this type of Stage 1. In practice it is the rarer of the two types mentioned.

Usually a stage 1 bear is the 1 type mentioned above and therefore goes unnoticed by most investors as they are still optimistic about the future outlook of their country's economy..and the fundamentally rosy looking forward earning projections

Stage 1 becomes noticeable after it ends and the more destructive Stage 2 (10-20+%) dips with sucker rally recoveries become the "norm"...even then there will be investors + Gurus still in denial..This is the stage that TAers see their sell signals appear and sell long and start buying short or play the sucker rally game.

The last stage (3) is the characteristic doom and gloom capitulation phase that most people think of when talking Bear Market Cycles..

[Hoop]

Written 7th August 2015 Post #769

I'm going to make an opinionated guess (risk of egg on face) and say .....The 6 year old DOW Bull is dead... it died 5 months ago
Note: ..Not yet confirmed by DOW Theory(Confirmed by DOW transport (considered unreliable these days) but not yet by the S&P500)......

Mark Hulbert reckons under old Dow theory it fired a sell signal on 20st August.....(that's one more confirmation for me...........Jack Schannep says the updated Version didn't fire on Thursday ......... Schanneps updated Dow Theory specifics