Thread: Dow

Corporate · 21-09-2010, 07:56 AM

Jeez I was expecting to see the DOW down overnight...but BANG 160+points

**Phaedrus** · 25-09-2010, 07:51 AM

Corporate · 25-09-2010, 12:45 PM

hey P...i can't see it?

**Financially dependant** · 25-09-2010, 01:02 PM

Originally Posted by Corporate

hey P...i can't see it?

I can see it ok!

Dark green....can't get any stronger.

**Lizard** · 03-11-2010, 07:36 AM

This 11,200 level on the Dow seems to be pretty significant, as we've seen the market fail around there numerous times on a daily and intra-day basis.

Am interested in TA as to probability of this breaking up or down? I am presuming any move is like to be quite strong once the magnetic pull of 11,200 is broken?

**Phaedrus** · 03-11-2010, 10:01 AM

I don't see 11,200 (or any other level) as being of particular significance, Liz. Looking at the short-term chart below we can see that 11,200 has been broken plenty of times before and doubtless will be broken again.

Long-term I guess you are referring to the April peak of 11,309 when the Close was 11,205. Certainly the Dow closed today below this level, but that was just another peak in an uptrend that is still intact. A clear break above this level would simply re-confirm the uptrend.

Here is an update of the long-term Dow chart. You can see that the plot remains resolutely Green and the MSI is as high as it can go. Is that not positive enough for you?! It certainly is enough to keep me Bullish! In my opinion, there is a high probability that the Dow will break "up".

**Hoop** · 03-11-2010, 01:33 PM

Hi Liz
As P says there is no significance at 11200. However if you use candlesticks or OHLC format you can clearly see the 11250/60 resistance (see chart)... There has been a couple of intra-day attempts recently to break this level and each time it has failed. (see my first chart)

Chances are there could be a correction as the market rally has reached its TA target point and the purple Bollinger bands are squeezed at this moment indicating a trend change (see my second chart)

The market has had a good rally lately (Sept - Oct) and maybe this could signal time for the market to catch it's breath.

If there is a market correction ..how big??..All rumours suggest the institutions will be buying into this next anticipated correction so maybe it will be a shallow correction (-5%) downwards to test the trend lines somewhwere around the 10700 area (there's a support line here too, not drawn in on the chart).
There's been traps this year so a bear scare such as seeing a break of one of these trendlines is possible around this 10700 area***. Remember trendlines aren't foolproof and false breaks are common....of course if this happens the usual Doom watchers noise will no doubt be deafening and negative media feeling will result.

Overall: ...In my Opinion I see a short small dip (correction) looming. Usually when a Down trendline is broken there is high chance the index will fall back to test that trendline before it continues to rally upwards again [***Note: This may result in seeing a temporary breaking of the long term primary uptrend line (bear trap) ]...... then I agree with P's opinion.

As my comments is a prediction only ..it would wise to take things day by day ..The present day( as at 2 Nov 2010) the key chart points to watch are :
......climb above 11260+ back to bull market mode and rally continues...
......a fall back to 10700, no problem...P's MSI probably won't be red
......fall back to below 10700, start to worry

**Lizard** · 03-11-2010, 02:36 PM

Thanks Phaedrus and Hoop. Yes, I am very "general" in my use of 11,200 as a level - just a visual squiz at the chart when I open my eyes most mornings and surprised at how many times it has hovered around/above this level before retreating back down.

Thanks, as ever, for the comments, charts and thoughts.