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Thread: Dow

  1. #1021
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Don't focus on the Dow. It's the S&P 500 that matters.

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/ma...08-gto0fg.html
    It depends on what you are trying to achieve..
    ...The S&P500 is great for short term costing or fundamental crystal ball gazing doing forward analysis of various kinds..
    ...The DOW for its longer term cyclical/secular trends and behaviour including its Theories
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    The media pushes it's own barrow in hyped up fashion and unfortunately the readers are guided into narrow thinking and go off half-cocked forming malformed deductions especially when the DOW/S&P500 suddenly do a short term correlated blip and go outside their Correlation coefficient "norm".

    For the record..The DOW of 30 stocks performs nearly identically to the S&P of 500 stocks..I googled quickly to find the correlation coefficient between the two ...the daily percent change (deviation) is 0.96163....1.0 is identical so DOW V S&P500 have very close to identical daily movements..

    So why the sudden media drama??
    ...My guess from googling is that the last 30 days the correlation coefficient has trended down to 0.91 ..If I remember correctly from doing countless statistical analysis back in the days when pterodactyls still flew around in the skies >0.85 was considered highly significant correlation...so 0.91 is by no means a bad news DOW event that the media makes it out to be..

    So when it comes to analysis or forming a base for a theory, or to correlate figures into a meaningful objectives, the longer the history/larger amounts of data the better the quality of analysis....With that in mind the DOW needs to keep functioning for as long as it is possible..for Centuries more preferably (data-wise)

    The DOW was created back in 1894..the S&P500 was created in it's present form in 1957.. IMHO.. even though S&P500 analysis is being used more frequently than the DOW these days in refining Sharemarket Theory, the S&P500 still needs many more decades of data before it could safely replace the DOW and make the DOW irrelevant....In the meantime the DOW/S&P500 showing near identical movements the hypertheoretical reliability to be able to confirm each other during Wall ST cyclical corrections and reversals is very very important....Decades ago it was the DOW industrials /Dow transport confirmations...With the S&P500 becoming the more superior index it is now DOW/S&P500 confirmation or in some cases the Russell index is included in the confirmations as well..
    Last edited by Hoop; 27-01-2017 at 09:56 PM.

  2. #1022
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    Yes, Hoop, it's true that the two indices pretty much track each other and that the Dow has the historical data argument on its side. But the fact remains that one follows 30 stocks and the other 500. For a clearer snapshot of market movements I'll go with the S&P.

    I do appreciate your technical analysis - adds an important dimension to our understanding of the market.


  3. #1023
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    Quote Originally Posted by macduffy View Post
    Yes, Hoop, it's true that the two indices pretty much track each other and that the Dow has the historical data argument on its side. But the fact remains that one follows 30 stocks and the other 500. For a clearer snapshot of market movements I'll go with the S&P.

    I do appreciate your technical analysis - adds an important dimension to our understanding of the market.


    For a clearer snapshot of market movements I'll go with the S&P
    .....Yeah sure, I do too, most of the "todays" stuff I do and read involves the S&P not the DOW...As most investors "live the moment" I would assume the S&P is their market of choice...and more companies in the index lessen any possible one company temporarily upsetting the indices...Mind you in saying that..Apple commands a large chunk of the S&P500 ...

  4. #1024
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    Another record high. It just keeps on going. When will this Bull end? Might go for another 4 years if they get their "phenomenal tax plan" in the states.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    When will this Bull end?
    As stated before I would suspect the SP will reach about 2500 based on the fifth wave approximating the same distance as the first wave.
    Last edited by peat; 18-02-2017 at 09:46 PM.

  6. #1026
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    20,500 Boom another all time high!! DOW

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    Love this chart from 'chart of the day'

    Inflation adjsuted DOW

    Just where it should be and long way to the next resistance level
    Attached Images Attached Images
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  8. #1028
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    Default I couldn't resist the temptation..sorry

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Love this chart from 'chart of the day'

    Inflation adjsuted DOW

    Just where it should be and long way to the next resistance level
    Yep...and it hits resistance every 35 years and support every 50 years or so ... by 2035 the DOW should reach it's low of 7000 .... but hang on it should also be due to hit resistance too at 40,000...WOW that's a giant crash..eh
    Last edited by Hoop; 16-02-2017 at 09:25 PM.

  9. #1029
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    At some point DOW should reach top in the current major uptrend.

  10. #1030
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    Quote Originally Posted by MARKETWINNER View Post
    At some point DOW should reach top in the current major uptrend.
    Wow 9th straight session record high... this just keeps on going.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    Wow 9th straight session record high... this just keeps on going.
    12 straight up days - from twitter

    @TheStalwart: Uh oh. Last time we had a streak this long was 1987. And we all know what happened that year. #KnowYourHistory https://t.co/jmcz5hpeLM
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  12. #1032
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    12 straight up days - from twitter

    @TheStalwart: Uh oh. Last time we had a streak this long was 1987. And we all know what happened that year. #KnowYourHistory https://t.co/jmcz5hpeLM
    No its different this time winner. you watch and see, it will be up tomorrow as well and that will be 13 straight record highs.
    Its just going to keep on going up.

  13. #1033
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    No its different this time winner. you watch and see, it will be up tomorrow as well and that will be 13 straight record highs.
    Its just going to keep on going up.
    This 'wall of worry' is very high so a lot more climbing to do I reckon

    No worries here ......though Aaron's wait for the bargains seems a forlorn wait
    “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

    –Benjamin Graham”

  14. #1034
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    This 'wall of worry' is very high so a lot more climbing to do I reckon

    No worries here ......though Aaron's wait for the bargains seems a forlorn wait
    I feel sorry for Aaron, he might learn that timing the market is pretty much impossible. But yep the wall of worry... could keep going for a while yet but keeping watch myself as things are looking a bit stretched.

  15. #1035
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    I feel sorry for Aaron, he might learn that timing the market is pretty much impossible. But yep the wall of worry... could keep going for a while yet but keeping watch myself as things are looking a bit stretched.
    I appreciate your pity.
    I am supposed to be coming up with an investing plan and starting to spend time looking at annual reports so that I might have an idea when a company is a bargain, when the crash finally happens ((not long to go now) although Warren Buffett doesn't share my pessimism but what does he know)
    As of today just procrastinating and falling further behind financially.
    Sorry to hear that Winner69 can't afford honey now that it is too expensive my woes pale into insignificance compared to the plight of the baby boomer generation.
    Last edited by Aaron; 28-02-2017 at 02:24 PM.

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