ZERO jobs should be good news for the market .... bullish in the short term ..... will make the Fed do something to stimulate the economy ..... but that would only make the inevitable crash even bigger when it does happen
ZERO jobs should be good news for the market .... bullish in the short term ..... will make the Fed do something to stimulate the economy ..... but that would only make the inevitable crash even bigger when it does happen
Winner..yes that rise did not happen.....another warning sign..ehh??
It seems from the technicals that investor behaviour is becoming "strange?"..something like an uneasy calm before a storm......there must be insider rumours operating to get these technical patterns forming (not all shown here).
My survival instincts are flashing a "get the hell outa there" sign..
11600 resistance tested and held... the possible Dead Cat Bounce (DCB)target 11600 has been reached...this could be the start of the "rout".
My chart below.....the yet to be complete DCB formation has a flag incorporated in it (Flags are not a formation on their own)...A flag raises the chance the DCB formation will be completed successfully.
Thomas Bulkowski cites a flag as being "road kill" within a trend formation ...a small bump on the highway...it this case the steep downtrend highway.
Its becoming clearer that this "reinforced" DBC formation when competed (breaks the 10700) is going to hurt long investors.
The failure rate of flags in a downtrend in a bear market is very low. For the optimist..if a flag continues it turns into a rectangle or triangle formation with better failure rates..This flag on the chart below is nearly "done" therefore it should breakout downwards any day now..if not it turns into a triangular formation and creates a slightly upward holding pattern until the lines nearly intersect around November.. this is unlikely though.
Where to if the breakout downwards occurs??.......failure rate is low so expect the 10700 support to fail.
Target price 11600 - (12750 - 10700) = 9550
Target prices are influenced by well established Support lines ...there is one at 9700 going back to Jan 1999 which has been tested numerous times. I suppect that this 9700 will be the next pause.
...starting buying - Q3 in pipeline ready to be unleashed - US = RIP - they will not be able to fix their internal problems unless ???WHO??? will take action to reign in the F.I.R.E - anyway, get ready for the next global Super Boom
A significant technical event happened today on the DOW..a retest failure which is bearish...surprise surprise you may say.
Well...not everyone is in an agreement that the Stockmarket is stuffed. I've had a couple of very optimistic people telling me that a very rapid rise is about to take place basing their limited knowledge on this double bottom / semi-complex Head and Shoulder looking formation....Hmmm...well... the neck line broke and the retest today failed ...I dent in their optimistic thinking...probably not as there is tomorrow and the next day etc for the DOW to do another retest...If it does succeed it will throw the cat amongst the pigeons or a better phrase throw the bear into the bull ring.
It has to be remembered that the countries that are economically in the crap still have their stockmarkets in cyclic bull market cycle...its the economically sound Countries such as China India Brazil Australia etc that have their stockmarkets in a cyclic Bear cycle...a paradox? ..nah..it can be explained by Stockmarket Theory.
So.. with the DOW and S&P500 displayng this strange type of bullish H&S formation within what is thought to be a bearish Dead Cat Bounce There is obviously evidence to recite for both Bull investors and Bear investors......so who's right??
TA tells the past and the "now" not the future so we don't know who's right or wh's wrong.... yet!!!
However past history gives us a better chance of being right and when TA formations gives conflicting signs you add many other TA indicators and other stockmarkets that have an effect on the one you are trying to make sense of.
so...caution is advised as the bigger picture still looks bearish...for example my chart below still shows the DOW in an area of grave concern...It is still flaunting with the cliff edge and until it moves away from this area I'm staying bearish and away from the market.
Today's bearish move down away from the retest back towards the 10700/10600 supports and the candles having wicks both indicate that the selling pressure has returned....this highlights the need to be cautious and bearish rather than blindly optimistic. ATM with this volatility, the reward could be 8% (target 11860) but the risk is a larger 10%, a possible capitulation down to 9600/9800 target if the 10700/10600 support breaks.
This was written in 1997 (Strauss/Howe 'The Fourth Turning') - The Crisis is upon us and over the next 20 years the world will change and will be much different than it is today .... and investment markets will have got rid of a lot of rubbish that has accumulated over the last 20 or so years and will operate on solid foundations where most things are 'real'/actually exist
Quote - “Through the Unraveling, people will have preferred (or, at least, tolerated) the exciting if bewildering trend toward social complexity. But as the Crisis mood congeals, people will come to the jarring realization that they have grown helplessly dependent on a teetering edifice of anonymous transactions and paper guarantees. Many Americans won’t know where their savings are, who their employer is, what their pension is, or how their government works. The era will have left the financial world arbitraged and tentacled: Debtors won’t know who holds their notes, homeowners who owns their mortgages, and shareholders who runs their equities–and vice versa.”
Keep at it Hoop .... its all unfolding to plan......
Yep Winner...however this event is being drawn out like a good soap opera ...Some good days lately to gee up the the Fundies ..
For me though it resembles a dead cat being shaken around inside a box...so I'm still bearish
The only good signs are these two factors.... this prolonged continuation pause and time...the more time factor increases the odds of a break up outside this 11600/10600 trading range area (Rectangle formation) rather than the favoured odds on break down.
The Dow is in repair mode...just above a pivot point...or another trap??
In theory the DOW has made a slightly higher high thereby weakening the bear tide....This is a bullish signal
Remember the DOW is technically still in a cyclic bull market cycle unlike some others e.g China Australia Brazil etc
Bull market corrections of 20% are possible and caution should wane with each confirmation points being broken through.
Expect a retest of the 11555 support line and/or a retest of the resumed up trend line (both marked with an orange A). If these lines hold then the Bull is still alive.
Last edited by Hoop; 18-11-2011 at 08:19 AM.
Reason: added FD's quote from the 9th October at the top of the post
Originally Posted by peat
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