Dow

[Jess9]

Dow certainly looking lofty - with little good news to support it. Perfect situation for a good drop, and a little punishment.

[Capybara]

Demand for oil drops off because the economy is faltering so the sharemarket rises... Am I missing something?

[Jess9]

Only if your not cashed up.

US housing slump discussed on RNZ at 6.55pm, about half way through and greater loss in value now expected. Freddy or Fanny have posted losses 3 times greater than analysts expectations.

[Capybara]

Good job I was short the dow then...

[lakedaemonian]

My opinion is that the recent bounce in the Dow is due to the short-term drop in energy prices.

I can actually see the Dow continue it's dead cat bounce in an inverse relationship with any further energy price drops.

But when energy price turn north again it's my opinion that the Dow will revert to a long, slow, and excrutiating downward spiral of stagnation.

With the exception of the very rare equity in the bunch(a la Microsoft which listed in 86 prior to the 87 hit), I wouldn't think about touching anything in the Dow or the index itself for years.

Commodities are the new equities and the new reserve currencies!

[Capybara]

My thoughts exactly. Go short on the bounces...

[Crypto Crude]

This weekly chart gives a great overview. You can see that the crash took the market back down to levels last seen a year before, in October 1996. You can also see the start of the recovery, as the Dow started to move higher in a choppy style.

This daily chart gives a great feel for how quickly the Crash came after the market top in late August, and just how precipitous the decline was. You can also see how the Dow retested the October lows in early December.


This hourly chart shows the market deteriorating right into October 19th, and how the selling intensified on the19th right into the close.

The 1987 sharemarket crash, and 1929 crashes are well worth studying...
The single most important factor of these two crashes (and why this time is different is evident)....
If you look at the two charts you will notice that the Markets crash is at the peak, or very close to it...

This time around the markets have had a soft landing through government intervention which diverted a big crash, but has put us in a steady downtrend... which is so much more important...
We are lucky...at this stage (unless when have a big rally up to 13,000 on the DOW) id say there wont be a crash... just a bear market down trending to 10k on the DOW and perhaps below...
its good to see the markets down a hundie points...

.^sc

[Laxmi]

http://www.kitco.com/

http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

http://finance.yahoo.com/currency/co...USD&amt=1&t=3m

[trendy]

Warning - word on the street here is that Lehman's will declare themselves bankrupt tonight. Bank of America looking to buy Merrill Lynch now.

[brettdale]

Yep people are having kittens over on some USA boards, they are expecting a massive drop tomorrow on the dow. Im guessing that will effect the asx and the nzx also?