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Thread: Dow

  1. #691
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    Didn't have to wait long for the retesting
    Support 11555 line broke down and the DOW dropped further to retest the resumed upward trend line (orange A) by resting right on it at close (11397)

  2. #692
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    Default Cyclic Bull Market Market Recovery

    It seems from the recent number of positive confirmations that the 20% decline was in fact a very large Bull Market Correction...therefore climbing to a new high is quite possible
    The DOW seems to retest everything atm so expect a 11900 support retest when this relief rally loses momentum
    If the 11900 retest holds then expect the 12380 Resistance level to come under attack...
    If the 11900 retest fails then the resumed up trend line comes back into play (orange dotted line).


  3. #693
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    Default Dow technically broken again (repair failed)

    Its all bad news....The US stockmarket is broken again...The suddeness is the worry..Expect the DOW to retest the next watched line (orange) 10700 if it fails to get above that old support (now resistance line) 11555 (orange)

    EDIT 30 minutes to closing There is a rapid late rally to regain some losses..very importantly it has regained the MA50 and the11555 to be at 11622 a very bullish very short term scenario.EDIT 10.49am...then it turned to custard again to close at 11547 ....support 11555 failed but still above the MA50 (11533)

    Last edited by Hoop; 22-11-2011 at 09:49 AM.

  4. #694
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    Default Intervention to attempt Technical Repair again...a genune rally this time?

    Today we have witnessed Market Euphoria due to a good dusting of pixie dust.

    When it wears off...the big bogey of the market intervention effecting market signals will appear...Just look at my chart!!! a red/blue arrow mess. Hoop does not like his charts being messed around like this...from my past experiences this is a bad omen.....where's the exit?

    EDIT: DOW closed at 12044 (+4.23%) higher the best day rise since March 2009 (the end of the last bear market) ....on my chart the close is testing the top trend line of the pennant feature (my highest orange dotted line to watch).
    If 11900 support holds and this downward sloping line is breached expect the testing of the 12230 /12280 resistance zone (not marked on my chart)

    Last edited by Hoop; 01-12-2011 at 09:32 AM.

  5. #695
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    Default Well done Belg

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    2011...Will it be another Year of the Bull or is it Bear-time once again?

    Well, we now know who won the race in 2010? The Bulls ..The Dow ended the 2010 year up +11%

    Good news..eh another "up" year following the 2009 year of +19%

    Therefore 2011 going to be better, especially with the global economy in recovery mode, you would think..huh?...Out with cash and lets buy up stocks...3 years of a rising market is common I hear you say...the dates and figures below proves it so...eh
    1924 - 1928....4 years in a row
    1933 - 1936....4 years in a row
    1942 - 1945....4 years in a row
    1949 - 1952....4 years in a row
    1954 - 1956....3 years in a row
    1963 - 1965....3 years in a row
    1970 - 1972...3 years in a row
    1985 - 1989....5 years in a row
    1991 - 1999....9 years in a row...wow

    and 10 years have past us by ...so ...we must be overdue for another 3+ years..eh

    Ok..party pooper time... here's the bad news....note the blue date

    History shows us that since 1901 ...only once has there been 3 "up" years in a row in a Secular Bear Market Cycle
    1970...+ 5%
    1971...+ 6%
    1972...+15%

    The DOW has seen many 3+ "up years in a row within the Secular Bull market cycle as shown above (the black dates)

    .... unfortunately the DOW is presently in the middle of a Secular Bear Market Cycle (2000-????)

    It's 2011 now and it's another blue date... do you still feel lucky?

    2009 - 20??....? years in a row
    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    Hoop, I'm feeling pretty lucky and will go out on a fairly solid limb to predict 2011 will be another 5%-10% year for the DOW. I did something a bit similar to what you did above but focussed on the years following recessions (US and worldwide/regional) that would affect american sentiment/confidence. (I also indulged in some macro tweaking to recognise "significant events", eg. oil shocks, US dollar unpegging, WWs, etc.) These events don't always lead to the indexes crashing as they did with the GFC and sometime the indexes just go nowhere - or take breather. This might happen in 2012 but 2011 I'm predicting to be pretty good as investors will be getting leery about the risks posed by being too overweight in bonds. Another factor is inflation. While there is some overcapacity in many areas, there are constraints (both price, e.g. oil and supply, e.g. rare metals) in some core areas which will push up prices and bonds will come under pressure. How the Fed reacts to this going to be interesting but I don't expect them to anything more than dovish with reagrds i-rates. Another factor is that the USD should be under more downside pressure than it is currently and if the USD weakens in a managed way, the DOW will go up.
    These posts were written a year ago on 3 January 2011...

    Congratulations Belg...well done. The historic odds were against you but you came through as a winner. You were spot on with nearly everything you predicted except the USD which bottomed out mid year.

    So for the second time in modern history the DOW managed 3 consecutive up years within a secular bear cycle....

    We now focus on 2012... Is it going to be another up year and see that 4th consecutive up year record ....surely not???

    Interesting to see the DOW outperformed the S&P500 which for the year came in just on the redside of zero. (-0.002%)...also the DOW is one of the few equity exchanges to be positive for 2011.

    DOW Statistics.for the record books.
    Year 2009...+19%
    Year 2010...+11%
    Year 2011...+ 5% .. (+5.5%)

    Others Year 2011

    NASDAQ... - 1.8%
    S&P500.....- 0.0%
    FTSE........- 5.6%
    NIKKEI......-18.0%
    AllOrds......-15.2%
    NZX50.......- 1.8%
    Shanghai...-21.6%
    India(BSE).-24.6%

    Interesting to note that the world is perceived to be relying on the big economies in Asia yet they have had the largest stockmarket falls.
    Last edited by Hoop; 31-12-2011 at 11:25 AM.

  6. #696
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    So 5 +ve years in the last 6 and still the US markets go nowhere over time

    Still an informative rable this one
    http://www.crestmontresearch.com/doc...ular-Chart.pdf

    DOW was 11497 at the beginning of this secular bear market in Dec 1999 .... 12 years on it is only 6% higher .... so much for the a buy and hold strategy .... and jsutifies sensible trading strategies as outlined in other threads to manage your way through such markets

    Hoop - and seeing the USDNZD is about the same as a years ago thats a great perf from the DOW eh .... esp relative to the rest of the world - spooky eh

  7. #697
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Another interesting chart from chartoftheday.com

    This rally a bit of a fizzer so far ..... maybe heaps more to go eh ......

    The Dow made another post-financial crisis rally high Thursday. To provide some further perspective to the current Dow rally and in response to several requests, all major market rallies of the last 111 years are plotted on today's chart. Each dot represents a major stock market rally as measured by the Dow with the majority of rallies referred to by a label which states the year in which the rally began. The difference between today's chart and last week's chart is that for last week's chart a rally was defined as an advance that followed a 15% correction (i.e. a major correction). For today's chart, however, a rally is being defined as an advance that follows a 30% decline (i.e. a major bear market). As today's chart illustrates, the Dow has begun a major rally 13 times over the past 111 years which equates to an average of one rally every 8.5 years. It is also interesting to note that the duration and magnitude of each rally correlated fairly well with the linear regression line (gray upward sloping line). As it stands right now, the current Dow rally that began in March 2009 (blue dot labeled you are here) would be classified as well below average in both duration and magnitude.
    Attached Images Attached Images

  8. #698
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    Not surprised it looks likes a fizzer against some of those benchmarks. To me the Dow is merely approaching the top of its 15 year (15!) range. At least the likes of 1987 and 1921 were making new highs. Still, a low of 7,000 to 13,000 in 3 years is nothing to sniff at.

  9. #699
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    Default Technical Repair successful Genuine rally confirmed (chart update from 30th Nov2011)

    The DOW has again today confirmed its resumed cyclic Bull market cycle by beating its May 2008 13000 high ....so the market is looking very rosy for the time being.

    Quote Originally Posted by Halebop View Post
    Not surprised it looks likes a fizzer against some of those benchmarks. To me the Dow is merely approaching the top of its 15 year (15!) range. At least the likes of 1987 and 1921 were making new highs. Still, a low of 7,000 to 13,000 in 3 years is nothing to sniff at.
    The DOW can still travel some distance upwards....but...14150 is the primary resistance level with theoretical secular bear market constraints. This is the ultimate hurdle to jump some time in the future.
    As the market climbs it increases the secular bear gravitational force.... Theoretically the physics show that at the 14150 level the index will then have such a big gravitational pull back to contend with, it will struggle to keep going up and will eventually fail.
    Therefore increasingly well above average buying demand will be needed to combat that increasing gravitational force.

    Secular bearwise..... 14150 real estate area includes a bull cemetery

    Note :..The S&P 500 is already moving upwards in this real estate area

    Last edited by Hoop; 29-02-2012 at 11:30 AM.

  10. #700
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    Red face Bernanke Testimony to Congress

    I looked at Bernanke testimony/address to Congress on CNBC.
    As CNBC puts it.
    "Stocks dipped into negative territory Wednesday amid Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to Congress on the economy"

    Something of an understatement.
    Dow is at 12948 as i write this. Down 107 from the intraday high.

    When I started watching cnbc about 4.00am NZT all 12 Europe exchanges and indexes on Yahoo Europe summary were in the green.

    After his speech all had declined and 4 are in the red.

    Dow composite hit an intraday high of 13055 up about 50 before the speech.


    The DOW declined as it got closer to Bernanke prepared speech (some may say spin) and rose somewhat on recognition of positive factors (eg employment, signs of recovery) and then declined on negative factors (eg Euro).

    Biggest decline (and wealth destruction) was when Congress spokespeople had 5 minutes each to make points and ask question (some may think of this as grandstanding).

    If the initial US players negativity is not reversed then World markets including NZX and ASX may be in for a hit today.
    Last edited by Toulouse - Luzern; 01-03-2012 at 04:42 AM. Reason: Formatting

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