Dow

[Hoop]

Business as "normal" Dow falling back as per trading pattern (uptrend channel formation).

[winner69]

Hoop - Mauldin and Crestmont have updated some of their stuff about the S&P earnings cycle and where the US markets might head in the future

EPS growth at a real high level and 'forecasted' by the experts to go even higher .... record margins even expanding and all that ..... see chart

Also love this bit .... As reflected in Figure 10, over one-third of the past 61 years have seen EPS declines despite growth in the economy. So, don’t be surprised that EPS might decline in spite of continued economic growth.

Full article
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/imag.../mwo080312.pdf

[Hoop]

Hi Winner...nice post
Already read it . It arrived in my Email box 3 1/2 hours ago via John Mauldin and InvestorsInsight... John Mauldin articles are always great reading.

So, don’t be surprised that EPS might decline in spite of continued economic growth.,,,,,Reading between the lines is the fact that Economic Business and Stock Market each have their own cycles. The article also says that EPS decline can come as a surprise to all except the readers....

The biggest surprise is in stall for those media taught investors who are waiting for the economic to "come right" and give the companies a good environment to make good profits. Through negative media many are oblivious to the fact that the biggest and predicted to be the longest running Business Bull Cycle phase ever to have taken place in the USA in modern times has been happening in front of their noses for the last 3 years.

[Hoop]

19th June 2012 Post#847.................If this is a bear market rally expect the rally to peter out below the previous high. (13300)....................

Technical cracks are appearing now.

Dow theory has a good record of being correct (+80%) therefore the DOW has a good chance of being in Bear Market (phase 1). This early phase is difficult to determine as it looks as if it is still a mature bull market phase (a small chance it still is).

[Hoop]

Since my last post the unmentionable happened ....a 6 week bull rally occurred when all the technical signs pointed towards a correction.....however the bully rally failed legs to continue well above that 13300 break level to cement in the start of another bull uptrend and thereby turned itself into a sucker. ...However this mini bull rally did break all the Technical and DOW rules and caused the DOW Theorists to run for cover and reexamine their DOW Theory cyclical change criteria.

...and the argument still continues ..is the DOW in a Cyclic Bull Market Cycle or a Cyclic Bear Market Cycle? yes no yes no.... maybe.

I take the view that during the early stages of Phase 1 of a cyclic bear market cycle it is very difficult to tell where the actual beginning of the cycle occurs...if we did know we would be all be genius's and richer than Buffett....The actual cyclic point can usually be found well after the event with hindsight.

In the short term it seems we will not know the DOW's cyclic nature as this downtrend looks to be weakening .....The next rally will create more arguments among the purists.....

What to watch for ....If this downtrend ends now and the next rally fails to break up through the 13100-13300 Resistance zone then this would create more evidence that the cyclic bear is roaming around Wall St. (lower high)
....If the downtrend pauses then continues down below 12035 ...ditto...(lower low)

EDITED CHART. ....The primary trendline is under threat... these breaks can also be cyclic change signals

[Hoop]

Hoop ... I'd suggest it was far, far safer - with all the debt shennanigans still in play, to exit at 13,100 level - bear trap or not! ... Belgie is just about all cashed up in US and is waiting from (I hope) the safety of the sidelines. ... Just one recent stock hold that keeps going up no matter how much I tighten the stops and I really, really want out of this one too!

A successful test off the primary up trend line, a spectacular spring board rebound 12766 +177 (+1.40%) as I write ...the bulls have won this round Belg

[Hoop]

People are now asking the question..how much higher can the DOW go??????



The chart of the day people posted this chart today


Looks like this rally could last another 1000days and go to 26000 to just to get to the average.........the chart shows good news...eh?

Since the year 2000 the DOW has been in a secular bear cycle

I have colour coded the chart of the day which shows only one secular bear cycle rally has gone further than the 1900-2010 average....the chart doesn't look so good now does it

[winner69]

another 1000 days sound sine to me ......up up and away ... no worries

[Hoop]

another 1000 days sound sine to me ......up up and away ... no worries

I can live with that

[winner69]

Sounds like we can't win either way ..... Read this somewhere today but can't remember where but the quote is attributed to some us guri

The central banks of the world are then caught in a classic catch-22 situation. They can’t stop printing money because this would cause the whole deck of cards to come crashing down; they can’t keep printing money because this only creates the conditions of an even bigger stock and assets price crash.