Dow

[Valuegrowth]

Dow may break even 16,000 during next six months. Still we may see bull markets in some sectors, commodities and some markets in 2014. In some point there may be correction in DOW. As I said before we may have opportunities in developed, emerging and frontier markets. We have to do home work to identify future bullish markets, sectors, commodities and currencies before others.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Hoop]

For the time being.....There's a good chance The DOW will break 16000 shortly. The latest record created a trading channel (rectangle pattern) breakout....Today's intraday drop, believe it or not, is bullish as the DOW has today successfully defended its new suppport (15708)...

Target price of the rectangle breakout is 15700 + (15700 - 14800) = 16600
See Colin Twiggs Article here

There is a risk attached to the success of this breakout...still waiting for confirmation with S&P500
EDIT...the S&P500 confirmed the next day (14th November.. NZ time)

[kiora]

Thanks Hoop; I,m always waiting for your next post with baited breath

[Valuegrowth]

Dow may break 16,000 again.

My ideas are not a recommendation to eitherbuy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own researchprior to making any investment decisions.

[Valuegrowth]

DOW may break 16500 and S&P may touch 1850 sooner that later.

If markets develop into bubble scenario we may have another financial crisis worst than 2007. As you can guess, a “melt-up” could lead to a “melt-down,” as happened in the past. There may be some volatility in 2014 still global stocks will give higher return for those who did home work. Asian and European stocks did not perform well when compare with U.S. stocks in 2013, with the notable exception of Japan. It is time to identify next winning markets, sectors, stocks, commodities, currencies and other assets globally. We may have correction in S&P 500 in 2014. Long term players may have another opportunity in 2014 and 2015. Bull will continue in undervalued global stocks markets in 2014. Remember intelligent investors will identify opportunities in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets. They outperformed others in all types of markets in 2013. They will do it in 2014 as well. In the currency market USD will outperform other currencies such as NZD and AUD in 2014 and 2015. More than USA stocks USD dollar is damp cheap now. In commodity market Gold, corn and soya bean will go down further in 2014.

The big debate among some market players is whether international markets will have bull market in 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Hoop]

DOW may break 16500 and S&P may touch 1850 sooner that later.

If markets develop into bubble scenario we may have another financial crisis worst than 2007. As you can guess, a “melt-up” could lead to a “melt-down,” as happened in the past. There may be some volatility in 2014 still global stocks will give higher return for those who did home work. Asian and European stocks did not perform well when compare with U.S. stocks in 2013, with the notable exception of Japan. It is time to identify next winning markets, sectors, stocks, commodities, currencies and other assets globally. We may have correction in S&P 500 in 2014. Long term players may have another opportunity in 2014 and 2015. Bull will continue in undervalued global stocks markets in 2014. Remember intelligent investors will identify opportunities in all types of markets such as developed, emerging and frontier markets. They outperformed others in all types of markets in 2013. They will do it in 2014 as well. In the currency market USD will outperform other currencies such as NZD and AUD in 2014 and 2015. More than USA stocks USD dollar is damp cheap now. In commodity market Gold, corn and soya bean will go down further in 2014.

The big debate among some market players is whether international markets will have bull market in 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

Yes interesting scenario MarketWinner.

How about this scenario
To think simple by applying this one single market physics factor....markets dependent on "available" money ..less money less demand for stocks, yields increase to compete and attract back that available money to the US equity market...

Expanding one this one simple factor.............. The action is happening in America atm..Is this part of the reason why US Equities are in rapid uptrend and the second biggest economy (China) Shanghai index is in the doldrums??? ...What happens if the action shifts geographically and the smart money gravitates to Shanghai (or Asia) from Wall St during an US recovered economy..Obviously fundamentally-wise Wall St prices wouldn't crash but prices could go nowhere (trading range bound), Wall St becomes stagnate and boring with all the action now happening in Asia, this would create a PE Ratio crash resulting in a typical secular bear market cycle correction while the cyclic bull market cycle is still alive but in hibernation.

[Valuegrowth]

Hoop

We cannot beat the market all the time. There are lot of things to learn. After 2007 crisis many avoided markets and they missed the train. Lot of players tried to seek more attractive destination for their money. If I am correct warren buffet invested in Japan before others. Others joined the party only recently. Some had opportunity to get attractive capital gain from selected frontier and emerging markets. Then we saw money flows into gold. So gold went up rapidly. Then what happened to NZD and AUD. All speculators and carry traders parked their money in both NZD and AUD. When they suddenly tried to pull out money we noticed some sort of instability in AUD and NZD recently. Very soon both NZD and AUD will go down dramatically.

Some of the speculative capital flows can move very quickly in and out of markets, potentially leading to market instability. Have a great 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Valuegrowth]

Still DOW has a leg. Dow broke 16500 again. There is a possibility that there could be correction in 2014. The USA reported trade deficit of four year low in November. It is becoming more energy independent.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Hoop]

Update chart from previous post #874 above.

As up to this moment in time (2.44pm 7th Jan) the DOW is going to the technical plan...its business as normal within its bull market cycle.
It is reaching its target price of 16600 as expected (~+70% chance)
It had a throw back (second chance to buy in) to test its breakout price which has an average ~58% happening after any chart pattern breakout (Bulkowski)

[Valuegrowth]

It is interesting to see DOW is trading above 16500 again. Still market has a leg. Yes I agree with you that it could break 16600.We could expect moderate returns from stocks depend on the strategy we apply to pick stocks. Even in DOW some stocks and sectors could outperform others. Overvalued markets and sectors could have corrections and undervalued markets and sectors could have bull markets in 2014.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.