Dow

[fungus pudding]

Things might go up, things might go down. You got any more wisdom to share?

Then again they could stay just as they are.

That is not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Blue Horseshoe]

The Dow's legs just got broken, down 252 points at last glance.

[Valuegrowth]

I strongly believe Fed could carry out their tapering in a systematic way and gradually. As I said before gradual tapering is a good for the world economy in the long run. We could see strong rebound in global stock markets sooner than later. There could be another great opportunity for intelligent investors in the USA and selected frontier and emerging markets. Coming weeks and months could become some of the best bullish months while having some volatility before we see some sort of correction in over valued markets. DOW, S & P 500 and NADAQ could bounce back strongly again.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

[Hoop]

This downturn and today's drop (1508 -292 -1.86%) has caused major technical damage...When all the triggers fire off together one has to assume this correction could be bigger than those experienced during the last 2.5 years .............(or cyclic reversal?)

There is strong supports around the 14600 to 14800 area.......from today's damage, a fall back to test the primary trend line over the next few weeks doesn't seem too far-fetched now...

Cyclic Bull market Cycles often revisit (and sometimes with minor breaks) with their primary up trend lines ..it has been 15 months (Nov 2012) since its last flirtation ...must be due for another...eh?

[Jay]

(ie. dont sell up everything, not everything will be caught in the downtrend).

Have to agree KW, during the GFC, I did not sell any of my (very modest) Long Term Portfolio, the stocks never hit my triggers - similar to your KW in the main. Have sold some since, but that was to fund things like a new Bathroom etc.
Keep up the informative/educational posts KW - appreciate them

[Hoop]

Amazingly 99% of US industry leaders asked by MarketWatch expect a crash in 2014 or so says Marketwatch who has some of the many very bearish reporters who obviously ask very bearish leaders...

So Is the DOW going to crash tomorrow....the chart below can't find any evidence yet that the DOW is even weakening** ...

**..The chart below is a very long term view which is less sensitive to daily or weekly changes...The shorter term view (the daily chart not shown) is not as rosy however...it is showing a possible bearish double top forming with the Bollinger bands suggesting a trend change.. and the indicators are showing slightly negative divergences ....another correction looming??...

Some mention lately about Coppock indicator down-turning and crossing zero is a good warning system that the BULL is dying.

It has to be remembered that Coppock created his indicator to reliably find the beginning of the DOW"S next Bull market cycle...nothing else was intended!!!

Over the years there seems to be another less reliable use for Coppock indicator in finding a bear cycle ..It seems the coppock indicator also works well for other other stockmarket indices e.g S&P500 and to some extent other markets such as gold as well(See the chart I made for gold click here). However, it should be remembered the Coppock indicator was designed for the DOW... the S&P500 did throw up a false positive in February 2002 of which didn't happen with the DOW......so it seems Coppock is less reliable as an indicator for other markets.

I've always been a fan of finding successful MA crossovers...I seemed to have "struck gold" with the MA4 month and MA12 month as they spookily agree with Coppock indicator (which is a rate of change indicator) when finding new Bull market cycles.

[Hoop]

Well the old 5yr bull which galloped away in 2013 had a breather in 2014 is looking set for another gallop ....or is it?
There was some black clouds out there with Media news of bearish head and shoulder pattern (FAILED) and then the bearish tripled top pattern (FAILED) all dismissed now with the rather decisive price rise today into record territory..
I don't think the bear drums will quieten down though...they will find another excuse or a piece of bad news to harp on about...eventually like a stopped clock there will be a time when the market will reverse and the bear drummers will tell you "I told you so"...

Contrary to the Media the main reason for a Bull's demise is exhaustion of available money to value the market ever higher..when investors are "all in" and debt margins reach their upper limits there are less avenues where money can be found to feed the Equity market and inevitably there's a gradual flattening off in volume momentum where finally sellers out number the buyers...This is a typical sign in the last stage of a Bull Cycle....Normally a healthy correction (-10+%) solves these exhaustion problems but with no "Walls of Worries" to climb at this stage of the Bull cycle (ie recovered economy + too much dip buying instead of realising captal gain mentality) the demise of the bull is often due to its own success and greed...

When will that tipping point (cyclic reversal) happen and the bull dies...who knows?? tommorrow? next week? next month? next year?... you choose

The chart below reinforces that above argument with the volume not enjoying the record breaking success...

Target price for the first hurdle is 16760 ..we are nearly there already (close today 16695)

[Hoop]

The target price never made it to 16760.

It got to a record of 16735 then technically threw back (throw backs are common they occur just over half of the time) to test the MA50 which successfully held as it had done the previous two times...normally that is a bullish trend continuation sign to advance upwards into record territory again ...however there is now doubt as the DOW failed to hold onto its brief 16580 resistance breakthrough...breaking back down through the 16580 support now resistance once again is a bearish sign.

The charts have been showing reduced volume for some time which is effecting the DOWs momentum push into record territory.

Often at this time of year, any reduced volume trend shows reliable trader sentiment, the unwillingness of many traders to hold large positions through the summer holiday slowdown...This is commonly seen in history and it is labeled as "Sell in May and go away behaviour"...

This negative sentiment wasn't seen last year and the DOW rose through the Summer, but the year before and often in history the pre summer volume reduction did reflect as a leading indicator to a significant drop in price at some stage during the summer period.

The next few trading days will tell the story as the resistance line at 16580 and the MA50 are key points of interest..

As is the case every April/May the bear drums become deafening and beat to the Sell in May song..but this time the drums may be right, as with the reduced volume trend history tells us there's odds on chance that some sort of price correction will occur..

[Valuegrowth]

It was a very intersecting week. There were sell off not only in stocks but also in commodities such as wheat, corn, oat, soya bean and other agri commodities. We may see this type of sell off in the second half of this year as well. Even there will be sell off in currencies sush as NZD and AUD. I believe Dow is due for correction.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sto...ing-2014-05-14

Stocks are telling you a bear market is coming

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

[winner69]

It was a very intersecting week. There were sell off not only in stocks but also in commodities such as wheat, corn, oat, soya bean and other agri commodities. We may see this type of sell off in the second half of this year as well. Even there will be sell off in currencies sush as NZD and AUD. I believe Dow is due for correction.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sto...ing-2014-05-14

Stocks are telling you a bear market is coming

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked site.

Marketwinner, that's pretty dire warning about a bear market

Do you believe that?