Dow

[Hoop]

Bulls are back. If everything goes well Dow could pass 18,000 and 19,000 and could expect some of the active months in April and May in stock markets globally. Coming months are very crucial.

http://fortune.com/2016/03/04/dow-jones-17000-2/

Dow Climbs Back Above 17,000

Yes the bulls are doing well.... gone past the 17000/17200 road block zone after a little pause to recognize the resistances..and today it tested the breakout (17200) before the FED news. That bounce off the 17200 strengthens that new support.
The next test is the 4.5 month Primary down trend line currently at 17470.....This downtrend line (17470) is one of the big milestones, above it is the first confirmation (1st of 2) that this 2 month weakness is a bull market correction and not a bear down wave..

Before one puts their party hat back on... 2 things
1....Even though this milestone is close (<1%) The Dow still has to get above this confirmation point
2....The Bollinger Bands are tightening suggesting a near future change of trend (end of the rally) and/or change of acceleration.

Dow closed at 17325 +74 +0.43% with the news that the FED is softening its rate increase stance by holding rates steady and only seeing 2 rate hikes this year now

[Valuegrowth]

Yes the bulls are doing well.... gone past the 17000/17200 road block zone after a little pause to recognize the resistances..and today it tested the breakout (17200) before the FED news. That bounce off the 17200 strengthens that new support.
The next test is the 4.5 month Primary down trend line currently at 17470.....This downtrend line (17470) is one of the big milestones, above it is the first confirmation (1st of 2) that this 2 month weakness is a bull market correction and not a bear down wave..

Before one puts their party hat back on... 2 things
1....Even though this milestone is close (<1%) The Dow still has to get above this confirmation point
2....The Bollinger Bands are tightening suggesting a near future change of trend (end of the rally) and/or change of acceleration.

Dow closed at 17325 +74 +0.43% with the news that the FED is softening its rate increase stance by holding rates steady and only seeing 2 rate hikes this year now

Yes Hoop you are right.

Madam Chair Yellen is very intelligent. She knows how to act and take decisions (with her team) according to the situation after taking consideration of the most important economic factors in the world. Fed’s decision will bring some stability not only to the USA but also to other countries including emerging and frontier countries. As I said before some stocks should break their 52 weeks high and their life time high again globally specially undervalued stocks having strong earning outlook.I think fed might raise rate most probably in 2017 than in 2016.

[Daytr]

US indices are well over valued considering the economic backdrop. The fact that the Fed is being so careful on rates says not all is ok.
Bubbles on bubbles caused by free money.
Sorry I'm a fundamentalist at heart and there is something very, very wrong with the global economic picture in my view.
Not saying you can trade to it, but I do like how gold has been behaving.

[Valuegrowth]

Dow smashed 17500 and it turned positive for 2016 as well. Whatever the reason, global markets are bouncing back after yearly low in February 2016. It is true stocks can go higher and higher in bull markets still it is better not to become too greedy or too optimistic. Globally, money is simply flowing from one bearish sector into the bullish ones. We could see some sort of rotation as well. In short, it is wise to stay with stocks which can beat both bull and bear. Currently, USA stocks are leading. We should see bullish trend while having some volatility in global stocks markets which include emerging and frontier markets. As I said before year of 2016 is going to be another year of opportunity for disciplined and patient investors. They already got some great opportunity during last two months.

[Baa_Baa]

Certainly is an impressive run-up, plowing through resistance at every point for the past 5 weeks. Will be interesting to see if that shallow down trend resistance line holds next week. Everything looking toppy right here.
Attachment 7941

[Hoop]

Hmmm... BaaBaa nice rising wedge... too steep to be sustainable and the VIX at 14 infers not much trend volatility for a little while (30 days)..an interesting mix..eh ?...either a continuing straight line up or flat-lining?

Rising wedge reversal breakouts can be lousy shorting opportunities (Bulkowski). This sort of says any break out may be more of a side way movement with pullback or two stopping any major downward trend volatility.....a plateauing out?..pause?... Therefore the low VIX makes a sudden downward crash type movement in the next month a lower (32%) probability happening..

Although VIX is an S&P500 instrument it works OK for the DOW as the S&P500 and DOW correlate very well..

VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period

** 14% / √12 = 3.46%

[macduffy]

Time for a reality check?

http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazona...ar_18_2016.pdf

[Baa_Baa]

Hmmm... BaaBaa nice rising wedge... too steep to be sustainable and the VIX at 14 infers not much trend volatility for a little while (30 days)..an interesting mix..eh ?...either a continuing straight line up or flat-lining?

Rising wedge reversal breakouts can be lousy shorting opportunities (Bulkowski). This sort of says any break out may be more of a side way movement with pullback or two stopping any major downward trend volatility.....a plateauing out?..pause?... Therefore the low VIX makes a sudden downward crash type movement in the next month a lower (32%) probability happening..

Although VIX is an S&P500 instrument it works OK for the DOW as the S&P500 and DOW correlate very well..

VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period

** 14% / √12 = 3.46%

Seems we're of the few who take notice at the moment, while the majority are relishing in the invincible NZX (good on them, make hay while it shines), but DOW has made a remarkable run, previous few days topping patterns, today slamming into resistance at the 176XX trend line. Currently futures are off the pace pointing to a breather. I have ST support at 17400-17300, or if the formation breaks 17000, 16750. A break above 176XX and 17970 (100%retrace) is in play with the all time high above that. MA's seem to have no bearing on price performance at the moment.

[Baa_Baa]

Attachment 7952

Could be the end, of the up trend? Whole up-move is on declining volume, RSI over bought turnover, STO turnover, money flow looking OK. Respect of the descending trend line looks like a top is in however falling through the steep rising pennant and back test to previous support suggests some life in this yet, as of Friday. I reckon it'll have another go at the descending trend line from the high before anything significant happens. Either way, it's close now.

[winner69]

Hoop said - VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period

Bugger - unlikely to see a new all time high then in next month ....but could get pretty close