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24-04-2016, 03:10 PM
#951
Originally Posted by Baa_Baa
Thank you for some valuable links. We can clearly see notable rising trend for USD despite selling US bonds and stocks.
How about high frequency trading,formula trading, algorithmic trading and fund trading? They also can move stock indexes and futures market at least for the short run. Fundamentals are very weak for grain. However we saw sudden spike in commodity futures recently and now they are tumbling again. What cash markets are doing is the opposite of futures.
Who were the big soybean and grain buyers? Funds have been participating with derivative trading, plus futures trades along with Over the Counter trading. Large fund traders have become smarter.
Over the past seven years China has become a centre of economic attention. When China buys or sells, their large transactions also affect markets. There is a talk, at some point they will sell 15 percent of their stockpiled corn.
AT some point we should see bear market. In other words over valued Assets should readjust at some point. Value stocks should outperform growth stocks in 2016.
Last edited by Valuegrowth; 24-04-2016 at 05:34 PM.
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03-05-2016, 10:31 PM
#952
Batten down the hatches me hearties, there's a storm brewing
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04-05-2016, 10:19 AM
#953
Originally Posted by Hoop
Batten down the hatches me hearties, there's a storm brewing
Central banks still have plenty of oil to pour on troubled waters. If successful they should destroy cashed up investors like myself before risk takers and borrowers are affected. I keep getting my hopes up that there will be an investment opportunity like 2009 again only to have them dashed time after time.
Last edited by Aaron; 04-05-2016 at 10:21 AM.
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04-05-2016, 12:41 PM
#954
Originally Posted by Aaron
Central banks still have plenty of oil to pour on troubled waters. If successful they should destroy cashed up investors like myself before risk takers and borrowers are affected. I keep getting my hopes up that there will be an investment opportunity like 2009 again only to have them dashed time after time.
Central banks still have plenty of oil to pour on troubled waters...for an increasing number of commentators the central banks continued meddling is their fear...
Having a Low interest rates and easy monetary policy period for too long breeds lazy inefficient investing..This school of thought which was pooh poohed years ago is gaining some renewed popularity.
..getting my hopes up that there will be an investment opportunity like 2009 again...Aaron are you implying now is a good investment opportunity time?
In early 2007 the DOW was around 14000 and the Earnings/share peaked at about $85 (S&P500 value) which is about the same as now (($90ish/S&P500 share), except the DOW is now at 18000.. Hmmm.. If I can remember correctly, after the crash in 2008, everyone agreed how overvalued the DOW was in 2007...It's wonderful with hindsight...ehh
Last edited by Hoop; 04-05-2016 at 12:48 PM.
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04-05-2016, 03:42 PM
#955
Originally Posted by Hoop
..getting my hopes up that there will be an investment opportunity like 2009 again...Aaron are you implying now is a good investment opportunity time?
In early 2007 the DOW was around 14000 and the Earnings/share peaked at about $85 (S&P500 value) which is about the same as now (($90ish/S&P500 share), except the DOW is now at 18000.. Hmmm.. If I can remember correctly, after the crash in 2008, everyone agreed how overvalued the DOW was in 2007...It's wonderful with hindsight...ehh
In 2007 it was 14,000 by March 2009 it was 7,000-8,000.
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04-05-2016, 06:33 PM
#956
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05-05-2016, 08:56 AM
#957
All good Hoop.
I like Stanley Drickenmiller here is his current advice.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/04/druck...-own-gold.html
I also like how he points out that current seniors are ripping off the young and yet to be born generations in the US. I imagine we have parallels in NZ. (see his youtube clips)
Also he points out easy money and low interest rates are designed to boost the stockmarket to create the "wealth effect" but in reality it is mostly helping the wealthy. A bit like "trickle down" and other dumb theories that have proven to be bull****.
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06-05-2016, 09:24 AM
#958
@RBAdvisors: .@ICI: $8B outflow from equity funds last week.$8B into bond funds. Rates must be going up soon.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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06-05-2016, 08:17 PM
#959
What do you think about following?
According to Bond-fund manager Bill Gross“Interest rates will stay low for longer, asset prices will continue to be artificially high.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...e-easing-views
Gross Sees QE4 Ahead as Citi Says Investors Revive Easing Views
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ashing-bankers
Gross Sees Helicopter Cash for Economies From Central Banks
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/28/bill-...ock-picks.html
Bill Gross picks... stocks!
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23-06-2016, 11:48 PM
#960
Originally Posted by Hoop
Hmmm... BaaBaa nice rising wedge... too steep to be sustainable and the VIX at 14 infers not much trend volatility for a little while (30 days)..an interesting mix..eh ?...either a continuing straight line up or flat-lining?
Rising wedge reversal breakouts can be lousy shorting opportunities ( Bulkowski). This sort of says any break out may be more of a side way movement with pullback or two stopping any major downward trend volatility.....a plateauing out?..pause?... Therefore the low VIX makes a sudden downward crash type movement in the next month a lower (32%) probability happening..
Although VIX is an S&P500 instrument it works OK for the DOW as the S&P500 and DOW correlate very well..
VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500 volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46% ** for the next month period
** 14% / √12 = 3.46%
Wrote this in the 19th March and since then the DOW has ranged traded around 17450 - 18100 .... ~3.5%...nice...except 14% ÷ √12 = 4.04% not 3.46% Ha!!! ..no one pick it up as wrong ..but it was close enough.
Recently the VIX has broken out of its 13-16 range and now around 21..
This indicates the DOW and S&P500 are going to be more volatile (21 ÷ √12 = 6.06%) within the next 21 days. (VIX broke out 10 days ago)
A 6% swing would present a breakout of the DOWs present trading range (17450 - 18100) ...a breakout would cause other market physics variables to come into play so the % rise or fall could end up being a lot more than ±6%..
On the DOW chart the Bollinger Bands are presently squeezed so a change of trend direction in the near future is indicated....For the last 3 months the DOW has been trendless, so the Million Dollar question.."Is the DOW going to go up and create another record high or down?"..
Trendless price lines on charts make TA indicators unreliable so Charting giving 50/50 odds isn't really much help ....In the media (as usual) we have the optimist chartists producing the indicators that only show upwards and the pessimistic chartists producing the indicators that show the downwards..
Brexit results tomorrow..so.. will the market rally or has it already bought the rumour and ready to sell the fact..
Last edited by Hoop; 24-06-2016 at 12:16 AM.
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