Dow

[winner69]

A case of lacklustre earnings still trumping negative interest rates.( Plse excuse the use of that word.)

When it looks as if trumping is actually going to happen what you reckon will happen then?

[easy money]

A weekly Bollinger would be nice, sipping on a glass of fine bubbly, but from a chart perspective the Bollinger bands are a key indicator. Any time the price moves towards and then away from the 2.5 standard deviations which are the upper and lower Bollinger bands, is time to take notice. DOW weekly takes a lot of the daily noise out, though this week it decided to pull away from the upper Bollinger band. This portends a topping with sideways and possibly downside to follow, perhaps a back test of the all time high breakouts. It is a caution signal. Don't ignore the Bollinger bands, they are very helpful indicators of highs and lows.

Attachment 8182

Dow 20000 by the end of the year....

[Hoop]

Dow 20000 by the end of the year....

and your reasonings are..?

[easy money]

and your reasonings are..?

massive money printing = low interest rates = rising sharemarkets = Dow 18000 and beyond...Gold will continue advance also.

[Hoop]

massive money printing = low interest rates = rising sharemarkets = Dow 18000 and beyond...Gold will continue advance also.

Easy Money... Gurufocus post arrived in my email this morning...here is the website address. http://www.gurufocus.com/news/429977/how-much-do-interest-rates-affect-the-markets-pe-ratio.

Ben Reynolds seems knowledgeable as he mentions (since 1971)...because before that, interest rates did not correlate with the Equity Market.

..therefore theoretically, interest rates is not a primary driver of the sharemarket....inflation is..It is important for sharemarket investors to remember their Theory as some time in the future when the FED (for reasons not yet known) may have to look towards other methods to smooth out (manipulate) market/economy volatility (gravitate away from Monetary Policy), when that happens the interest rate factor driving todays sharemarket may become less significant.

Haven't read his other work yet but it is here

[Biscuit]

massive money printing = low interest rates = ...

I'm not an economist so know nothing, but I would have guessed that massive money printing = high inflation = high interest rates ?

[bear]

Every chance of the Dow hitting some crazy numbers this year. Large tech stocks are powering ahead Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet & Facebook - some impressive results over the past few days. New highs for Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook. Was sweating a little on Amazon's numbers (you never know how spectacular the result will be) ... but very happy with the end result and nice gain after some shorters bailed in extended trading.

Even non tech stocks like J & J, Honeywell etc doing well and other super powered conglomerates

Financials and retailers (in general other than online like Amazon) will be the biggest drag on the DOW and this really because the margins are so low

and Im not a bear on the Dow

Bear

[Baa_Baa]

Who would know from a fundamental perspective? That has been screwed for many years, decades even, with economic theories all going to hell and monetary policy makers desperately trying to find ways to prop up economies and at the same time hide the incomprehensible sovereign debt overhang as a consequence. Better minds than mine can grapple with that.

In the meantime, TA shows that last weeks breakout from all time highs stumbled at weeks end, then followed through this week including yesterday a back test of the breakout. Fortunately for the bulls that test was positive and current price is still hovering above the previous all time high. Tonight (NZ time) will be interesting though as it does look like there's a slow leak in the DOW which is testing the bulls confidence.

Might be worthwhile looking into the the DOW shorts, from a historical perspective, where are they now and what is the shorts consensus position? This helps to to identify the short sell overhang who are anticipating (hoping) for a breakdown in the DOW because they make their money when it all turns to custard.

[Hoop]

BaaBaa quote..."Who would know from a fundamental perspective? That has been screwed for many years, decades even, with economic theories all going to hell...."

To bring the DOW into total perspective forget the economy and all the BS, smoke screens, and mirrors.... Investors have been discussing/arguing that for decades if not for centuries.......Think simple, think secular.

Back in 2006 the question was asked "Where do you think we're headed? The author had a good idea the DOW was entering two decades of slow share price growth...At the time the US economy was entering a boom..With that hindsight 10 years later we know the author was right..

OK..next question...Lets ask the same one now.."Where do you think we're headed?

[Baa_Baa]

Nice chart, it says invest in the DOW anytime you like and in less than 25 years you'll be doing fine (on a historical basis) but in 100 years from now you'll be in clover. But I'll be pushing up daisies well before the 100 year windfall, maybe even before the 25 year. Sigh.

Interesting interpretation though that a bull market only begins when the highs of the previous bull market are exceeded. Basically it just says buy and wait. And hope you live long enough.