Airlines r a great public service, endorsed by Skol.

[AMR]

VBA now in euphoria territory. Do you hold any other airlines skol...I notice Air Nz has done a nice technical thing as well.

[Skol]

I sold a few VBA today don't want to push my luck, still have more, but I was looking at the REX chart today, might be worth a punt. Worried about a correction had such a good run.
I'm in Oz right now and there's a lot of talk about agricultural commodities so I'm having a look at that at the moment.
I think AIR would be well worth a punt.

[dragonz]

I sold a few VBA today don't want to push my luck, still have more, but I was looking at the REX chart today, might be worth a punt. Worried about a correction had such a good run.
I'm in Oz right now and there's a lot of talk about agricultural commodities so I'm having a look at that at the moment.
I think AIR would be well worth a punt.

I just brought into VBA today for another little ride. Looking good I hope

[dragonz]

I sold a few VBA today don't want to push my luck, still have more, but I was looking at the REX chart today, might be worth a punt. Worried about a correction had such a good run.
I'm in Oz right now and there's a lot of talk about agricultural commodities so I'm having a look at that at the moment.
I think AIR would be well worth a punt.

I agree with you about agricultural commodites Skoll. Some months ago someone started a tread titled. " next bubble" I entered Consumer staples and if you look at the indexs you can see this has been one one the best performing indexes this year.

It sort of makes sense when you look at the greater scheme of things. Forget about the fancy commodities. Agriculture is the way to go for med-long term investments

[AMR]

I just brought into VBA today for another little ride. Looking good I hope

Looks like an ok entry, support found at 50c by the looksof it. Short on cash at the moment so I won't be joining you

[dragonz]

Tim Boreham | October 19, 2009
Article from: The Australian
LISTED airlines Qantas and Virgin Blue, struggling rag trader Pacific Brands and Coca-Cola Amatil have been rated among the biggest beneficiaries of the Australian dollar's strength -- but overall corporate losers far outweigh the winners.

In separate research, brokers Macquarie Equities and Goldman Sachs JBWere have assessed the specific earnings impact across the blue-chip sector -- and there are some surprising inclusions.

The accepted rule of thumb is that companies with predominantly offshore earnings will be hit as they have to translate foreign earnings (typically in $US) back to the local currency. Resource stocks are universally affected as most traded commodities are struck in $US terms.

On the positive side the surging currency is good for importers such as retailers and those who ship in manufacturing inputs, such as Coca-Cola.

But when it comes to individual companies' sensitivities the equation becomes much less clear cut: some have hedged their exposures while for others the currency joy (or pain) is offset by the impact of higher interest rates.

According to Macquarie Equities, the robust $A -- now at close to parity with the greenback -- is closely linked to global economic growth: higher growth means more demand for the commodities that underpin the $A.

"The movement in the $A and global growth are two sides of the same coin," the firm says. "So for economic-sensitive stocks, leverage to the economic recovery may partially, if not fully, offset the currency impact on earnings."

The biggest winners include Qantas and Virgin Blue (lower fuel costs and strengthening outbound travel), Boral (lower offshore debt costs), condom and glove maker Ansell, apparel importer Pacific Brands, diversified industrial Alesco and waste manager and car importer Transpacific.

Macquarie identifies the biggest losers as defensive stocks with an offshore earnings skew and which also are not exposed to this global growth. These include CSL, Cochlear, Resmed, Ramsay Healthcare and QBE Insurances. GSJBW cites BlueScope, Paperlinx, Caltex, Incitec Pivot and Aristocrat Leisure as other losers, but notes currency is only one of many variables affecting earnings.

Brambles, which is on GSJBW's winners' list, ostensibly should be a "loser". But as the world's biggest pallet provider it's exposed to an uptick in global trade.

GSJBW rates Ansell among those most affected, but Macquarie Equities believes the company (which strikes its earnings in $US) will benefit mildly.

Caltex is also an oddity because while it benefits from lower $US-denominated feedstock, its refiner margins are also struck in $US so the negatives tend to balance the positives.

Lincoln Indicators CEO Elio D'Amato nominates the biggest beneficiaries as retailers David Jones and Super Cheap Auto, Webjet (overseas travel), GUD Holdings (consumer goods importer) and Telstra. Even though it's domestically focused, Telstra is included because of high capital expenditure on technology sourced from offshore.

[dragonz]

Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading.

This will soon led to the other comodities following suit and this will ultimately led to a further demise of the US dollar. Here is a recent article



"By Robert Fisk


Tuesday, 6 October 2009


Iran announced late last month that its foreign currency reserves would henceforth be held in euros rather than dollars.






In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.


Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years."



The decline of the US dollar is so far on rumour. Just imangine what impact this will have when this becomes a fact.

Also there is a direct correlation between the $US and the price of Oil, which has seen an increase in the POO. Peak Oilers would have you belive that its a supply and demand issue but this has no founding.

Combine a strenthening $Aus to a decreasing POO and it changes the whole dynamics for Airlines.

[Skol]

As a contrarian the message that the $US is stuffed could be overdoing it, might be time to buy. When it gets low enough foreigners will buy US stocks.
In the meantime I see VBA finished up at .555 yesterday. I still have VBA I bought at .57 on the way down.

Alternatively I guess you could buy AUD stocks like PPX that have suffered as the $A has advanced against the $US.

[Skol]

Hey tricha, here's a chance to make money out of airlines.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...11-709726.html

VBA looks to be heading north, gotta love those airlines.

[tricha]

Hi tricha,

Take a look at American airlines (AMR) on the NYSE. Doubled in two days!
US Airways (LCC) a two and a half bagger in 5 days!

The point is that airlines are crap investments but great pump and dump candidates when oil corrects. Someone has made serious money in the last week...

Pump and dump, u r so right AMR, I'd be dumping on Monday.

Hundreds of jobs lost at failed airline


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/8419171.stm