Airlines r a great public service, endorsed by Skol.

[STRAT]

Have a look at this fellas.

Qantas vs POO.

The POO seems to have bugger all to do with the performance of Qantas and its SP while other economic factors at times have them rising and falling in sync. This can be applied to other airlines too. Seems obvious to me that Airlines wont die and if things head in that direction they will be bailed out just like the banks. There is no way Governments would let things slide back 100 years and if they were unable to prop them up the health of Airlines would be the least of our worries.

[Skol]

Since March 09 the airline index in the US ^XAL is up 90%, the oil index ^XOI up 35%.

In the last year the airline index is up 50% the oil index up 20%.

In the last 3 months the airline index is up more than 20%, the S & P 500 up 2%.

[Dr_Who]

Gosh you say some silly things, Tricha.
Here is a list of a few airline shareprice increases since March :-

Air France 9 - 18
China Eastern 12 - 36
Delta 4 - 12
Lufthansa 10 - 18
Continental 7 - 20
SouthWest 5 - 12
Qantas 1.40 - 2.90
Virgin Blue 14 - 57

Only someone with rocks in their head (or their head in the rocks!) would scoff at performances such as these.

But the overall sharemarket have gone up over 60% last year. You could be blind, threw a dart on a board and still get 60% last year.

One thing I have noticed is that air ticket price have not moved up much if any since 20 years ago. The only means for airlines to make money is by cost cutting and restructuring. This is evident with AIRNZ becoming a discount no thrills airline. Other cheap no frills airlines are growing much faster than traditional airlines.

[Phaedrus]

Phaedrus your a chartest and the problem with that school of thought is that you are always looking back.

Digger, all anyone can do is try and learn from the past and apply that knowledge to the present. No-one can look into the future. Right now, all we really know is that oil is in an on-going uptrend - and that airline stocks are in a much steeper on-going uptrend. Right now, it is painfully obvious which has offered the better return over the last months. This situation will continue - until it ends. At that point, I will change my mind and agree with Tricha that "Anyone that owns airline shares must have rocks in their head..." Unless/until that happens, Tricha's sweeping dismissal of airline stocks is just plain silly.

However i do agree with Tricha that if there is a coming oil price spike that you would be wise to off load airline shares.

Nah. Such an approach is based on the misconception that airline stock prices are negatively correlated with the price of oil - and it is patently obvious that they are not. (See chart) The time to off-load airline shares is when they stop outperforming the market. Or when they stop going up. Or when they start going down. Or when they start showing some technical weakness. To buy or sell airline shares on the basis of what the oil price is doing is demonstrably foolish. Don't take my word for it though - look at the chart and you can see for yourself!

But the overall sharemarket have gone up over 60% last year. You could be blind, threw a dart on a board and still get 60% last year.

Yes, but your return on airline stocks was likely to be considerably better than the overall sharemarket. Not a sector to be avoided! See chart.

[STRAT]

Airlines Rock eh Phaedrus?

Interesting choice of words but somehow I just cant picture you saying em out loud .

Happy New Year to you

[Huang Chung]

According to the radio, the 3 delayed flights into BNE this morning were all Virgin Blue / Pacific Blue (2 of them by several hours).

I remember Ansett's hideous on-time departure record before its demise. I hope this isn't an example of history repeating......

[Skol]

You've got a point there HC.
Many passengers prefer to pay a bit extra and fly on the full service carriers for exactly that reason, and others, better organised, great on-time performance, business class if you want it, loyalty programmes and you know you're going to get there when you're supposed to get there.

Had friends who went Bali and back on one of the budget carriers. Flight was delayed 24hrs ex-Bali (reason give was lack of crew) and came back to NZ via MEL instead of SYD.

[Skol]

Hey tricha, I think VBA might be on the verge of a breakout.
I bought some today.

Go on, buy some, those oilers are losers at the moment.
(Which is probably why we haven't heard much from you and bermuda for a while.)

[Skol]

On a down day the airlines are up.
Up 6c for QAN and 2c for VBA

[tricha]

man Skol we must keep reading from different books, I wouldn't touch airlines with a bargepole

Airline Stocks
Jan. 22, 2010, 6:06 p.m. EST · Recommend · Post:
Airline stocks wrap up week with a loss


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Alert Email Print Share By Christopher Hinton, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Airline stocks fell Friday, swept along in another 200-point sell off by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and on signs first-quarter international demand is lagging the domestic market.
The NYSE Arca Airline Index /quotes/comstock/10t!xal.x (XAL 33.54, +0.05, +0.15%) fell 2% to 34.01 points with 10 of its 13 components in the red. Friday's retreat left the index down 2.7% for the week.
Shares of US Airways /quotes/comstock/13*!lcc/quotes/nls/lcc (LCC 4.86, -0.19, -3.76%) lead decliners Friday among the legacy carriers, down 4% to $5.24, while United Airlines' parent UAL Corp. /quotes/comstock/15*!uaua/quotes/nls/uaua (UAUA 12.83, +0.04, +0.31%) led gainers on an 8-cent gain to $13.21.
Meanwhile, legacy carriers look poised to implement the first airfare hike for 2010, with American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United tacking on $15, $10 and $6 increases for thousands of domestic city pairs, according to Farecompare.com, which tracks ticket prices.
AM Report: Obama vs Wall Street

Wall Street is reeling following the White House's financial reform proposals. The News Hub panelists argue the merit of the effort.

March crude oil futures fell $1.54 a barrel in New York Friday, leaving it 4.7% lower for the week. That's down significantly from its 2008 peaks, but still up about 22% from average prices in 2009.
Higher jet fuel prices, falling demand and fierce competition are forcing airlines to look far beyond ticket sales for their livelihood, leading to changes that are going to aim at passengers' pocketbooks for a long time.
Aside from charging people for bags, seat changes and peak-travel times, carriers are increasingly looking at passengers as captive marketing audiences and potential customers for luxury goods.
Some industry insiders think airlines may eventually fly people at cost, and make their profits through merchandising and cross selling. Read more about airline merchandising.
Airlines post better results, but see January from different angles

Airlines began reporting their fourth-quarter results this week, and signs were encouraging with American parent AMR Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!amr/quotes/nls/amr (AMR 7.60, -0.02, -0.26%) posting a narrower-than-expected loss and Continental reporting a surprise profit
But Continental Airlines Chief Executive Jeffrey Smisek warned the enthusiasm over improving traffic and revenue trends may need some cooling off, as early signs for the first quarter points toward accelerated erosion.
Continental /quotes/comstock/13*!cal/quotes/nls/cal (CAL 19.42, +0.17, +0.88%) , like the other legacy carriers, has a lot of exposure to premium-paying business travel and international routes, both of which have declined sharply in the past year due to the recession. The corporate market is improving, airlines say, but at the rate of a trickle.
Meanwhile the industry is entering a seasonal low point for leisure travel.
"We are a long way from being out of the woods," said Smisek on a post-earnings call with analysts.
Also posting a profit was budget-carrier Southwest Airlines /quotes/comstock/13*!luv/quotes/nls/luv (LUV 11.39, -0.22, -1.89%) , but with less exposure to the business traveler and focused on the domestic market, it's expecting revenue growth in the first quarter with solid bookings.
"We think a few issues are at play that explains the differing trends," said Barclays Capital analyst Gary Chase, on the Continental and Southwest outlooks.
"First, at an industry level the December demand acceleration is likely carrying through better in the domestic market, pointing to a slightly softer start to the quarter than we expected in the international entities," Chase wrote in a note to clients.
"Second, Continental's capacity growth in January -- up 3% versus flat in February and March -- appears to be having greater impact than we had expected," Chase said. "Lastly, we believe Southwest's relative revenue performance to the industry is likely accelerating."
Next week, Delta Air Lines reports results on Tuesday, followed by United parent UAL Corp. on Wednesday and US Airways /quotes/comstock/13*!lcc/quotes/nls/lcc (LCC 4.86, -0.19, -3.76%) on Thursday. Read more about the earnings outlook.
Southwest shares climbed 1.6% to $11.87 with its domestic rival JetBlue Airways /quotes/comstock/15*!jblu/quotes/nls/jblu (JBLU 5.55, +0.06, +1.09%) gaining two cents at $5.65.
Following fourth-quarter results, equity research firm Raymond James upgraded Southwest to outperform from market perform.
Less industry capacity, improved route optimization and more passengers trying to avoid the baggage fees at other airlines should lead to revenue outperformance in the near term, said firm said in a Friday note.
Raymond James raised its rating for the budget airline to outperform from market perform, and lifted its 2010 earnings estimated to 55 cents a share from 25 cents.
The firm estimates Southwest's capacity will decline 5% in the first quarter from a year ago, supporting continued unit-revenue outperformance, though unit costs will likely be pressured.
Christopher Hinton is a reporter for MarketWatch based in New York