Airlines r a great public service, endorsed by Skol.

[tricha]

Achtung tricha,

I've got a confession to make. I broke my golden rule and bought a few VBA the other day. I couldn't resist the temptation, I just cracked under the pressure of watching it go up every day.

Since 16/7 up 67%.

Virgin Blue struggling to stay in the black






Steve Creedy | August 20, 2008

VIRGIN Blue's share price collapsed yesterday after the airline reported a 55 per cent fall in annual profit and could not guarantee investors that it would remain profitable this year.
The company revealed a thin $5 million second-half profit, warned the year ahead would be the most challenging in the airline's history and held out little hope for any growth in yield.
It added to the uncertain outlook by failing to declare a dividend, a move that helped drive the share price down 28 per cent, or 32c, to 84c.
The stock might take another hit on Friday when Toll Holdings shareholders take ownership of their shares in the airline.
Virgin's 2007-08 net profit fell to $97.2 million from $216 million in 2006-07, as the airline grappled with high fuel prices and a surge in capacity that outstripped demand.
The result included one-off after-tax charges of $42.8 million for new projects such as the launch of its VAustralia international service and domestic flights in New Zealand, as well as the introduction of new Embraer aircraft and new product.
The profit was at the high end of Virgin's guidance, and better than analysts' expectations, but not enough to prompt the airline to pay a dividend.
Underlying net profit fell 36.5 per cent to $140.5 million and revenue per available seat kilometre was almost flat.
JPMorgan analyst Matt Crowe said the airline's outlook was grimmer than anticipated.
"Their statement that it would be a challenge to be profitable and they don't expect yields to increase at all is pretty grim," he said.
Mr Crowe said the airline's share price had taken off in the lead-up to the result without any obvious reason but it was now back to a "reasonable spot", given current fuel prices.
But he noted the illiquid nature of the stock made it hard to make sense of day-to-day trades.
That would change on Friday when ownership of most of Toll's 62.7 per cent stake in the company transferred to shareholders as part of an in specie dividend.
Mr Crowe predicted many Toll shareholders would probably want to sell the stock, although others were likely to pick it up if prices tanked.
"You've just got a lot people who probably don't want to hold that sort of company," he said.
"They've bought Toll for a growth company, not an airline, and when they get the airline they'll probably part with it."
Shaw Stockbroking analyst Brent Mitchell was also unsurprised by the result.

"With the outlook, really it's self-evident that fuel prices, capacity and yield are going to be key factors going forward and they're difficult to predict in current circumstances," he said.

Mr Mitchell said takeover speculation could have been behind the ramp-up in Virgin's share price.

"Whether there was speculation on a takeover or not, I'm not too sure, but I wouldn't expect anything corporate to happen in the current environment ... for at least another one or two years," he said.

"You've got the Virgin Group sitting there and I don't think they've got the wherewithal to do anything at the moment."

Earlier, Virgin chief executive Brett Godfrey told reporters that the airline's domestic market had been particularly challenging in the second half and "fuel inputs played havoc with the cost base".

"During the second half to June, fuel, and jet fuel in particular, broke more records than the Australian swimming team," he said.

Mr Godfrey said Virgin Blue and Pacific Blue were expected to remain profitable this financial year if current market conditions and fuel prices held, but VAustralia would lose $55-$65 million.

Most of this would be pre-operational costs, but the airline would lose about $18 million because the aircraft would be under-utilised for the first year.

He warned that the airline expected tough conditions for up to three years but noted that Virgin had implemented a range of measures in recent months to mitigate the impact of increase fuel costs.

These included a $5 increase in average ticket prices across more than half its domestic routes, a 12 per cent cut in capacity growth, the redeployment of aircraft to international operations and a $50 million cost-cutting program.

[Skol]

tricha,
Yes, that was bit unexpected.
However since 16/7

AIR +13.6%

QAN +7.9%

VBA -3%

Still much better than AZA COE NZO OEL.

[BRICKS]

BRICKS is back in with an increased holding this morning to big a drop the curve will rise again and the planes will be doing there best don't forget the large increase in REVENUE
of cash MONEY..

[h2so4]

CapEx for airlines are enormous and must be maintained during tough economic times.Competition? It doesnt get any tougher in any industry.Forget price, where is your reasoning?

[Crypto Crude]

tricha,
Yes, that was bit unexpected.
However since 16/7

AIR +13.6%

QAN +7.9%

VBA -3%

Still much better than AZA COE NZO OEL.

hahahaaha... unexpected... VBA down 29%... then down 29% again the very next day... now down 10% today...its about to hit fresh lows...
As I said Skol, add My CUE and EPR To that list Skol....
this is a no contest over the medium/longer term...

.^sc

[Skol]

hahahaaha... unexpected... VBA down 29%... then down 29% again the very next day... now down 10% today...its about to hit fresh lows...
As I said Skol, add My CUE and EPR To that list Skol....
this is a no contest over the medium/longer term...

.^sc

As I've previously mentioned, the average bear market plunge for oil is 33%. That means there's a 50% chance that oil will drop below $97 so good luck with the oilers, you're going to need it.

[tricha]

As I've previously mentioned, the average bear market plunge for oil is 33%. That means there's a 50% chance that oil will drop below $97 so good luck with the oilers, you're going to need it.

Skol u do not get it do u, oil at $100 a barrel is stll a great price.

And then the peak, oh yeah the peak ( 2005) and then " The Decline " soon

U R one sick puppy, holding magic beds. Air beds

[drillfix]

As I've previously mentioned, the average bear market plunge for oil is 33%. That means there's a 50% chance that oil will drop below $97 so good luck with the oilers, you're going to need it.

Skol,

Who honestly knows or can tell with these markets and global conditions.

War starts, War finishing or pausing, Russia and Georgia, who knows where everything is going, the world is basically and unpredictable place, or for those who keep trying to predict it keeps getting proved alternatively, or so it seems~!

ps: this is not a ramp, or down ramp of oil~!

[tricha]

Hi Skol

Hmm what can I say, at least u had the guts to disclose and made a mistake or 10, like most of us , except for the Mighty One who has never lost a trade
I wonder what the T\A experts would say about this one, but then again they will only be telling history.

Line Type LineCandlestickOHLCPercent Period 1 Month2 Months3 Months6 Months1 Year2 Years5 Years10 Years
Moving Average 1 5 day10 day30 day60 day90 day120 dayNone
Moving Average 2 10 day30 day60 day90 day120 day180 dayNone

[Robomo]

I hear from a couple of reasonably reputable sources that Air New Zealand is doing due diligence on Virgin Blue. At it's current share price it might be a cheap way of AIR (AIZ-ASX) buying into the Aus domestic market, which is NZ's biggest tourist market.

However, given the Ansett debacle I'm sure Air NZ would be treading very cautiously!