Oil

[AMR]

hi hoop , nice work , different technique same conclusions.
good confirmation.

hey mick , no problem.

do you or anyone else have any thoughts on what aus oilers to look at.

its not yet confirmed but i have a hunch the equity markets and oil are about to run higher.

Me too here. It's as if the support at 11,000 is absolutely unbreakable. Maybe when the European giants declare subprime losses we will see some pain, but that could be many months away.

[Mick100]

I'm quietly optimistic dumbass but
I'll feel better about the markets once we are through october
Second half of october is usually positive for the markets

As far as oilers are concerned I'v held smallcaps , midcaps and a large cap over the years. The one that performed best is the large cap (STO) to date. I'v given up on investing in small caps, although if your lucky you can make a killing on these. Where I see really good value at the moment is in the producing midcaps. They have been absolutely smashed along with the smallcaps. I think the midcaps will recover quickly if oil runs again. One of my favourites at the moment is our own NZO.
Others that have been undeservidly beaten up are TAP, PSA. (they will look ugly on the charts)

disc. holding - NZO,STO, AED, TAP, PSA, AWE

[dumbass]

heres what im seeing in the dow.

the correction has unfolded in a 3 major waves labelled A B C

a common corrective relationship is where A = C in points

A = 2563 POINTS with C = 2673 POINTS , so quite feasable bottom in at 10462

multiple time frame indicator divergence, from weekly to daily to hourly charts at the bottom.

on the hourly a big bullish engulfing pattern which could be a wave 1 up

wave 2 down tested and rejected 61.8 retracement of wave 1

which is a classic elliot wave relationship.

elliot wave confirmation would come in 5 waves up and a 3 wave correction not taking out
10 462 bottom.

i would feel confident if 10 753 remains intact and the market rallys past 11 477 in the next week.

probably the biggest factor in favouring a bullish stance is the extreme bearish sentiment which should propel this rally upwards pretty violently.

at the moment caution and good money manangement is the most essential part of trading and a clearly defined risk is critical. there is still a chance this market may drive lower.
Also this is not a new bull market bottom but a MAJOR B WAVE 3 wave rally which should terminate in about 6 - 8 months before the MAJOR C WAVE comes back down to new lows

[dumbass]

i just took one of your oilers mick at random ,

there are some possible signs that TAP is bottoming.

massively oversold on rsi , couple of spinning tops on the weekly chart.

nice downtrend channel that may be the place to watch for a breakout.

the downtrend has stopped at the 161 extension of the jan -may 08 rally printing at 83.97.

which is pretty much the low so far.

i will work through the rest of your list and post some charts.

[bermuda]

heres what im seeing in the dow.

the correction has unfolded in a 3 major waves labelled A B C

a common corrective relationship is where A = C in points

A = 2563 POINTS with C = 2673 POINTS , so quite feasable bottom in at 10462

multiple time frame indicator divergence, from weekly to daily to hourly charts at the bottom.

on the hourly a big bullish engulfing pattern which could be a wave 1 up

wave 2 down tested and rejected 61.8 retracement of wave 1

which is a classic elliot wave relationship.

elliot wave confirmation would come in 5 waves up and a 3 wave correction not taking out
10 462 bottom.

i would feel confident if 10 753 remains intact and the market rallys past 11 477 in the next week.

probably the biggest factor in favouring a bullish stance is the extreme bearish sentiment which should propel this rally upwards pretty violently.

at the moment caution and good money manangement is the most essential part of trading and a clearly defined risk is critical. there is still a chance this market may drive lower.
Also this is not a new bull market bottom but a MAJOR B WAVE 3 wave rally which should terminate in about 6 - 8 months before the MAJOR C WAVE comes back down to new lows

So what you are saying.... is the market going up or down????

I dont understand this Elliot Wave theory. Either it is going up or down. I mean you have to make your mind up eh?

[Mick100]

So what you are saying.... is the market going up or down????

I dont understand this Elliot Wave theory. Either it is going up or down. I mean you have to make your mind up eh?

I'll try and explain bermuda. DA can correct me if I'm wrong
Bear markets go down with three waves
A - first down leg
B - upleg
C - 2nd downleg

The two down legs (a&c) are usually close to the same magnitude
Taking the bear market as a whole what we have seen so far is the first A downleg. Next 6-8 months we see the B upleg , then the C downleg which should be another 4500 points down

looks like a reasonable, logical forcast to me
,

[arco]

Bermuda

This may help.......

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets.htm





Oil is possibly in the ABC phase now, and this could then be followed by a further 5 waves up. Each of the down-legs in the 1-5 are also ABC's


rgds - arco

[dumbass]

So what you are saying.... is the market going up or down????

I dont understand this Elliot Wave theory. Either it is going up or down. I mean you have to make your mind up eh?

i've made up my mind, here it is in a simple version.

UP

target 12700

completely wrong below 10 462

worried about being wrong below 10 753

[Financially dependant]

Are we seeing a double bottom forming for oil?

I was thinking any fed support would see oil bounce of previous low?

[dumbass]

hi mick, i was lucky enough to spend some time with an oil trader and he gave me a chart with a count on it you may find usefull.
the chart is similar to what i posted but it has this big spike to 130 a couple of weeks ago which they have included in their count , so must be the real deal.
im guessing it must be a forward futures contract chart .
if you can tell me the ticker code i can post it.