Trader Sentiment And Positioning

[dumbass]

this is a sentiment guage i use to help position longer time frame trades

the idea is that when a market tops or bottoms there is an extreme reading between

commercial hedgers (usually on the right side of the market )

and speculators like myself (usually on the wrong side of the market , of course excluding peat , arco and roddy )

so as an example as euro usd tops out for a major trend change

the sentiment guage will pick up the commercials being extremely short against speculators being extremely long

at the present juncture , it feels like there is no one left to go long in euro however sentiment guage disagrees and it appears there is plenty more upside in this up move .

it seems on the cards there may be a correction due but in no way does the sentiment guage indicate a top

[Steve]

Where do you find/calculate this sentiment guage?

[arco]

Steve

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission publishes the Commitment of Traders report (COT) every week, and it measures the net long and short positions taken by traders in the futures market. It is a great resource to gauge market sentiment from the “big players” because of their large positions they are required to report to the government. Of course, it is very important to see what the “smart money” is up to because they move the markets and it may have an impact on your positions.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../COTreport.asp

rgds - arco

[dumbass]

comes out once a week , i think a friday

its posted on dailyfx site

here,s a sample

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/chartin...537409076.html

sorry i dont know how to make a link , but wack that in your browser

[GeorgeW]

Many thanks, Arco,

That is quite a treasure. I didn't know such report is freely displayed.
Nice, very nice

http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/co...ders/index.htm

George

[peat]

Oanda offers these insights into it customers positions thus allowing you to gauge their overall sentiment

Open Positions Ratio
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t...ositions.shtml

Open Positions summary
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t...nsummary.shtml

Open Orders Summary
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t...rsummary.shtml

Also a historical long short ratio
http://fxlabs.oanda.com/cgi/fxlabs.pl?id=8
Note that Eur$ longs over the last week have moved from %60 to %38


PS you dont need to be an Oanda customer to view them.

So there plenty of information out there on sentiment.

In the last two days %60 of Oanda customers have been short Eur$. So if you were using it as a contrarian indicator it would have worked. A week ago they were long tho, and hence correct. It seems they're selling into this surge now. Are they right or wrong this time?

Even tho I'm not a paying customer, Max sent me an email on Monday morning (price 1.4820) saying 155. Getting there.
Long term he says 1.7.

[Steve]

Thanks for starting this thread DA, and thanks for sharing your links Arco, GW and Peat.

It's amzing what information is available when you take the time to look...

[dumbass]

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/chartin...573386481.html

[dumbass]

signs are slowly emerging

US Dollar Index: The 52 week COT index is at 71, indicating that plenty more selling is possible. However, the 13 week index is at 0, which warns of a bearish sentiment extreme and potential turn. Conditions remain bearish but the USD is probably very close to a significant bottom. Watch for signs of strength.



Signal: Bearish but forming a bottom

[dumbass]

last weeks COT data indicated a bullish extreme in USD

this should provide the fuel for a move higher in euro against usd

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special...873299491.html