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Lizard .... so it was you started the decline in commodity stocks with this thread ..... pretty quiet on that front at the moment eh
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Hi Winner. Haha, you know it was well underway when I started this thread - I was just a bit startled that, if anything, resource stocks were making up a higher proportion of posts than ever before. Still, most of the posts on this forum are still on resource stocks it appears.
Actually, there seemed so little interest in anything else that I thought it would be rude to spam the forum with the usual sort of results season rabbiting-on I'm prone to doing with non-resource stocks. There were some good results in there though, which have made for good trades - particularly on the NZX. But back to sitting on my hands again for now.
Last edited by Lizard; 05-09-2008 at 02:11 PM.
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I agree Liz but can anything stop the oil bulls stampeding on ST?
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The decline in resource and energy stocks has accelerated recently and the materials, mining and energy sector indices have underperformed pretty much every other sector since July/August. Best of the picks seems to be the healthcare sector as suggested by Footsie.
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Yes great call on that. A very poor performance by the oilers and miners lately, seems they've been going down with the index and down with the commodity.
Can anyone here plot "Large caps vs small caps vs microcaps"? I have a feeling that the microcap miners are pretty screwed, especially the ones without cash.
Disclaimer: Do not take my posts seriously. They are only opinions.
AMR has sold all shares and is pursuing property.
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With that controversial call of yours ..... and a direct challenge to the resource junkies (many of who are unfortunately true believers) ...... you deserve to join the ranks of the great analysts who have moved markets .... the Cramer, Blodget and Meeker (even though were into tech stocks).
And didn't martha Stewart make a good call once?
Whatever it was a great call .... resource stocks down heaps since that post .... and still going down
Next challenge Lizard ...... whats the big thing for 2009 .... either things to stay out of or to get into
Cheers
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Hi Winner,
What will the weather be on 1st September? Too hard to pick! Calling resources down was like calling for a fine day in February. And calling it one week into a February drought. :o
I've lost my share of money and pride this downturn. So no gold stars for me. Best call I've made all year was to go back out to work where I had more chance of making money! 
Where we go from here - the long term it's still not clear whether we're investing for a season of deflation or a season of inflation, so pretty hard to call anything for more than a few weeks out.
(The contrarian call might be Telco's and local manufacturers?)
The conundrum - your comment somewhere "bubbles don't usually follow bubbles" rings very true. But (scary thought) what does it really say about the state of the world if resources stay down here for long? Prices weren't entirely speculation, were they? More likely, resource prices stabilise and the less indebted companies get to clean up on good assets - perhaps using equity dilution in the process and trading sideways for a few years, while setting a base for the next cycle.
If a downturn bites hard enough, it is often the new blood companies bearing fresh capital that become the new darlings in an upturn. Beyond that, I'm trying to remember at some point that gearing will be good again and "highly geared" companies (though perhaps not by recent standards) will one day add some fizz to the portfolio.
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This may shock you . . . what asset class has closed higher every year since 2000?
2000 -- $273.60
2001 -- $279.00
2002 -- $348.20
2003 -- $416.10
2004 -- $438.40
2005 -- $518.90
2006 -- $638.00
2007 -- $838.00
2008 -- Currently over US$870 or just shy of a 325% gain since 2000
GOLD
Last edited by Aussie; 18-12-2008 at 11:55 PM.
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 Originally Posted by Aussie
This may shock you . . . year after year, what item has closed higher every year since 2000?
2000 -- $273.60
2001 -- $279.00
2002 -- $348.20
2003 -- $416.10
2004 -- $438.40
2005 -- $518.90
2006 -- $638.00
2007 -- $838.00
2008 -- ?
GOLD
It'll be north of $1000 when 2009 finishes too 
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