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  1. #1
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    Default Warren Buffett on CNBC Sqawkbox

    When Warren speaks we should all listen.
    6 part 3hour video and transcript recorded live on CNBC Sqawkbox today.http://www.cnbc.com/id/26337298
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    I am becoming increasing concerned about recent comments made by Warren Buffett.

    Historically, he had been a massive but generally quiet mover and shaker.

    In the past year he has been anything but quiet.....far from it......you can hardly watch anything in regards to finance on TV without his face/voice being seen/heard.

    It is a very noticeable change.

    What also has changed is his tune, in my opinion.

    In recent years he's used his quite important "derivatives = weapons of finance mass destruction" and parable/story analogies in venues like Fortune Magazine to occasionally make a point known about his serious concerns in regards to the US economy.

    But lately he has become a very big and noticeable rah, rah cheerleader........

    It has been noticed by many amateur contrarians when he was part of the panel discussing the new movie IOUSA, he appears to be taking the role of head cheerleader in that everything will be OK, sunshine, and rainbows going forward.

    I hope he is right and I am completely off the mark.....but while I will continue to keep abreast of Buffett's public comments and known positions of Berkshire Hathaway........I am inclined to read into his comments, rather than accept them at face value.

    I hope I am completely wrong, but I get the sense he is an active participant in "talking up" incredibly fragile markets.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Halebop's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakedaemonian View Post
    I am becoming increasing concerned about recent comments made by Warren Buffett.

    Historically, he had been a massive but generally quiet mover and shaker.

    In the past year he has been anything but quiet.....far from it......you can hardly watch anything in regards to finance on TV without his face/voice being seen/heard.

    It is a very noticeable change.

    What also has changed is his tune, in my opinion.

    In recent years he's used his quite important "derivatives = weapons of finance mass destruction" and parable/story analogies in venues like Fortune Magazine to occasionally make a point known about his serious concerns in regards to the US economy.

    But lately he has become a very big and noticeable rah, rah cheerleader........

    It has been noticed by many amateur contrarians when he was part of the panel discussing the new movie IOUSA, he appears to be taking the role of head cheerleader in that everything will be OK, sunshine, and rainbows going forward.

    I hope he is right and I am completely off the mark.....but while I will continue to keep abreast of Buffett's public comments and known positions of Berkshire Hathaway........I am inclined to read into his comments, rather than accept them at face value.

    I hope I am completely wrong, but I get the sense he is an active participant in "talking up" incredibly fragile markets.
    An interesting view lakedaemonian. I'd tend to agree that anyone, no matter how rational, is inclined to talk their book. I'm still mostly cash and have unsurprisingly been happier than most to highlight falling shares and various economic risks.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakedaemonian View Post
    I am becoming increasing concerned about recent comments made by Warren Buffett.

    Historically, he had been a massive but generally quiet mover and shaker.

    In the past year he has been anything but quiet.....far from it......you can hardly watch anything in regards to finance on TV without his face/voice being seen/heard.

    It is a very noticeable change.

    What also has changed is his tune, in my opinion.

    In recent years he's used his quite important "derivatives = weapons of finance mass destruction" and parable/story analogies in venues like Fortune Magazine to occasionally make a point known about his serious concerns in regards to the US economy.

    But lately he has become a very big and noticeable rah, rah cheerleader........

    It has been noticed by many amateur contrarians when he was part of the panel discussing the new movie IOUSA, he appears to be taking the role of head cheerleader in that everything will be OK, sunshine, and rainbows going forward.

    I hope he is right and I am completely off the mark.....but while I will continue to keep abreast of Buffett's public comments and known positions of Berkshire Hathaway........I am inclined to read into his comments, rather than accept them at face value.

    I hope I am completely wrong, but I get the sense he is an active participant in "talking up" incredibly fragile markets.
    I just think he's smitten with Becky Quick .

    Last edited by Huang Chung; 29-08-2008 at 11:30 PM.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huang Chung View Post
    I just think he's smitten with Becky Quick .

    Hahahahahaha!!!!! Who knows??????????? Hahahahahah!!!
    Last edited by h2so4; 30-08-2008 at 07:27 AM.
    h2

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    Quote Originally Posted by lakedaemonian View Post
    lately he has become a very big and noticeable rah, rah cheerleader........

    It has been noticed by many amateur contrarians when he was part of the panel discussing the new movie IOUSA, he appears to be taking the role of head cheerleader in that everything will be OK, sunshine, and rainbows going forward.
    Just browsing outside my familiar patch ... and saw your interesting comment. He has been very honest so far. Why do you think he'll want to change now? Was one of the first to call a recession a recession months ago, while economists paid through the public purse are still undecided. He was also one of the first to opine that he saw long term pain.

    Political pressure do you think, or a new convert? He has delved publicly and more noticeably in derivatives in the recent past. Maybe time will tell ...

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by beacon View Post
    Just browsing outside my familiar patch ... and saw your interesting comment. He has been very honest so far. Why do you think he'll want to change now? Was one of the first to call a recession a recession months ago, while economists paid through the public purse are still undecided. He was also one of the first to opine that he saw long term pain.

    Political pressure do you think, or a new convert? He has delved publicly and more noticeably in derivatives in the recent past. Maybe time will tell ...
    I agree completely that Buffett was early to the party in calling for careful/conservative fiscal/monetary change.......usually a gentle but serious reminder that a BIG problem is potentially looming.

    He did it "way back when" with the dot-com boom/bust as well......read his quotes back then carefully.....there are often several layers to his carefully worded quotes.

    He has usually partnered with Carol Loomis(Fortune Magazine) and very FEW others in sharing his thoughts publically(besides his annual shareholder letter) for mass consumption.

    Historically, he's been quite media shy unless it relates to being a customer of the products his company produces/sells.

    NOW, he's the business equivalent of Paris Hilton.........big name, but nothing of substance coming from his mouth.

    Paris Hilton says, "That's hot."

    Buffett says, "We're going to be fine."

    I'm not buying it........those are words reserved to calm the lemmings from their inevitable dive off the cliff

    Credit crunch wave II looming
    US monetary/fiscal policy yin/yang is NOT very fung shei at the moment
    US Social Security funding hot potato
    US private + state and local government pension chaos
    US incredibly expensive foreign policy

    Business will always go on.......but I think Buffett is shining a really big turd

    Once things settle though, and as long as Berkshire Hathaway isn't TOO exposed to complex derivatives they'll have the cash to pick up the pieces for pennies on the dollar.

    I wouldn't be suprised if Buffett's being approached by BOTH parties to consider naming his successor, retiring, and accepting a position as Presidential Advisor/Financial Chaos Band-aid Applier.

    If Buffett's trying to calm markets, rather than speak his occasional bit of carefully worded harsh truth either things are even more fragile than believed or he's being tapped on the shoulder.

    Just my amateur opinion.

  8. #8
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    Very late last night Paulson was on CNBC spruking his Freddie/Fannie bailout plan........immediately followed by a CNBC staffer dragging Buffett to a phone borrowed from a resort community retailer, here's a taste:

    Buffett: Treasury 'Did Exactly the Right Thing'

    In stepping in to bail out and recapitalize collapsing home mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson "did exactly the right thing," said billionaire investor Warren Buffett.

    "I wouldn't change anything in the plan myself," Buffett said in an interview on CNBC. He said he expects this step will go a long way in calming the market and resolving the ambiguity surrounding the two companies.

    "It's best deal and the most sensible deal available now," he said. "Now, you can argue that there should have been some different rules put in decades ago, and it wouldn't have come to this."
    The government seized control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac on Sunday, launching what could be the biggest federal bailout ever, in an attempt to shore up the U.S. housing market and ward off more financial market turbulence.

    "If Bear Stearns was an 8.5 on the financial Richter scale, this was about a 9.9, or something of the sort," Buffett said. "The government really had no choice but to do something. And then the question is: did they do the most sensible thing, and they did do that." Buffett said.

    According to Buffett, the size of Fannie's and Freddie's portfolios helped get them into trouble.

    What is at stake for taxpayers, is impossible to determine at this time, he said. In order for the Treasury to lose money, both the common shares and the preferred shares will have to get wiped out, and "that very well could happen," Buffett said.

    Essentially, the Treasury is "on the hook" for the depth of the housing downturn, Buffett said.

  9. #9
    Senior Member moimoi's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Huang Chung View Post
    I just think he's smitten with Becky Quick .

    It was Becky that had come off the beach and scuttled up to the hardware store to call Warren....maybe your onto something huang lol.

    what was interesting from the interview was that Paulson had called Buffet (who hastily suggested he had nothing to do with the bailout plan) a day prior to making the announcement.

    cheers
    Moi

    oh and Becky is a hottie ;-)

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by moimoi View Post
    It was Becky that had come off the beach and scuttled up to the hardware store to call Warren....maybe your onto something huang lol.

    what was interesting from the interview was that Paulson had called Buffet (who hastily suggested he had nothing to do with the bailout plan) a day prior to making the announcement.

    cheers
    Moi

    oh and Becky is a hottie ;-)
    Maybe I'm just paranoid.....but it all seemed quite bizarre........Hank Paulson being lobbed softball questions with a -3 on a question hardness scale of 1 to 10, followed IMMEDIATELY by Buffett sounding like he had a gun to his head...maybe I'm reading far too much into it.....but it's feeling very much like the power players are displaying a very unified front that is out of character for some.

    The only high profile dissenting voice I'm hearing is, of course, Jim Rogers

    And yes...Becky is hot
    Last edited by lakedaemonian; 10-09-2008 at 10:54 AM. Reason: Because Becky is a hottie!

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