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04-01-2019, 10:30 AM
#3571
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
If (really) nobody buys than the market stays. SP can only drop if there are buyers on the way down.
It is bascially a game of chicken. Who chickens out (buys) early gets burned. Who chickens out (buys) late makes only a small gain. Only the ones who buy at the bottom make the mega bugs.
Trick is to recognise the bottom before everybody else does.
Would be interesting to simulate this using game theory.
Added to that, IMHO Jan is the prone to low volumes, little news and bouts of possible SP manipulation. I tend to sit tight at this time of the year.
Last edited by Leftfield; 04-01-2019 at 10:32 AM.
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04-01-2019, 10:33 AM
#3572
Good move, in 5 years time share price is likely close to 20 dollars, even if it might dip below your buy price for some time.
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04-01-2019, 10:35 AM
#3573
Originally Posted by forest
Good move, in 5 years time share price is likely close to 20 dollars, even if it might dip below your buy price for some time.
Like it ...and SUM will be 10 bucks plus on that basis
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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04-01-2019, 10:37 AM
#3574
Originally Posted by RupertBear
I waited and watched for 17 minutes before I bought some
Lol, that's more like it, sometimes your weakness can be your strength.
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04-01-2019, 10:54 AM
#3575
Originally Posted by percy
Not so as RYM Melbourne units are less than Melborne's average sale price,and most probably half in areas RYM have their villages.
I doubt its half but if it is say 75% that's fine...provided of course the elderly incoming resident can sell and provided Melbourne real estate doesn't tank 20-25% over the next two years or so.
From a TA perspective this looks absolutely dreadful and this right here is reason enough to stay well away, (licence to lose lots of money), but for the heck of it lets have another look at the fundamental's.
RYM's forward PE is currently about 24...Is that cheap ?, absolutely NOT !...well above its very long term average of about 20. RYM is not priced for a bear market, not anywhere even remotely close. People with a long memory will recall RYM shares got absolutely pummelled in the GFC despite underlying profits growing every year. From memory it got down to a forward PE of 12 in the GFC so the downside risk appears to be about 50% even from here and even after dropping over $3 in recent months, (readers may recall that only one person adamantly called this a sell at $14 and you guessed it, it was me). If you want exposure to this growth sector I believe OCA is the place to be trading on a forward PE of well under half RYM with a more defensive late stage needs based business model and about three times the dividend yield.
RYM looks like a very, very bad place to be in a bear market in my opinion. Newbies looking to flock to a big name apparent safe haven place in turbulent times look set to get an expensive lesson in what is defensive sector investing and what isn't.
Take care folks. Just because something has come down about 25% from a grossly overpriced situation does not mean it is a good buy !
P.S. Did some historical price research. Between the end of May 2007 and the end of February 2009 in less than 2 years RYM more than halved going from $2.55 down to $1.24. Couldn't happen again....or could it ?
Last edited by Beagle; 04-01-2019 at 12:31 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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04-01-2019, 02:00 PM
#3576
I understand you Beagle that halving is possible, but the point I like to make that anybody who would have been unlucky enough in 2007 to have purchased at the top and hold on to their shares still would have quadrupled the value and gained dividends along the way.
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04-01-2019, 02:14 PM
#3577
Yep imo this is a stock for the long term set and forget, unless you are a trader. This has been a long term foundation stock for our estate and we have done exceptionally well with the set and forget deck chair application/analogy Now wheres my sunblock 1000?.
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04-01-2019, 02:16 PM
#3578
Well yes, I understand its been a great long term performer...actually not all that much better than the S&P 500 which has quadrupled since the GFC low but that background is against arguably the greatest and longest bull market in shares and houses in our lifetimes so there is no guarantee whatsoever that this will repeat again over the next 12 years. NZ real estate is second only as most expensive in the world on a per capita basis to Hong King and Australia isn't far behind. Its most likely to only go one way from here.
No reason for RYM's PE to be trading above its long term historical average of about 20...in fact I would argue it should presently be trading at no more than 75% of its historical average, (about 15 x forward earnings in the current market looks about right to me) which suggests fair - good value is about $7.
TA really sucks on this and fundamentally it still looks very, very expensive relative to the market and the sector and uniquely in this sector in N.Z. has significant exposure to the rapidly tanking Melbourne market. Only reason I post this is so that newbies like little bear understand the risks. Old timers like you and Vaygor1 among others are big enough and...to cop some losses on the chin and not be hurt.
Last edited by Beagle; 04-01-2019 at 02:18 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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04-01-2019, 03:06 PM
#3579
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04-01-2019, 03:20 PM
#3580
Originally Posted by RupertBear
Thanks Mr Beagle.
This little Bear knew the TA really sucked and should have known better than to buy on a downtrend! Luckily only bought a wee few
Dont worry little bear, I'm sure I bought a couple more than you yesterday and I'm not in the least bit concerned.PS-This stock is loved by overseas investors and they can push the price up in short order so you will have no probs getting out with a wee profit should you so wish.
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