RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Onion]

yes this year; in fact, today.

Goodbye to the old Couta ratio -- wasn't that 2:1, RYM:OCA?

[Ggcc]

Well done holders. I sold out of SUM some time back just before covid crisis. Used those funds to top up OCA for about 65 cent average

[winner69]

Goodbye to the old Couta ratio -- wasn't that 2:1, RYM:OCA?

Maybe not goodbye yet ..... the Couta theorem has not been disproved yet - you may recall it was a 'revert to the mean' theory - in this case the SUM share price REVERTS to 50% of the RYM share price (50% being the long term average pre 2020). It was never that on a particular day SUM would be 50% of RYM but would revert to 50% as time moved on.

So give it time - the theory could still be relevant

Interesting the rise to 100% has happened since arly last year and mainly because of a rerating up of SUM and rerating down of RYM

Financially both RYM and SUM have performed about the same - Underlying EPS for both down about 7% and Book Value for both UP about 20% (RYM sightly better than SUM)

But SUM's PE ratio has gone from 19 to 30 while RYM's PE has fallen slightly from 34 to 28

SUM's P/B Ratio has increased from 1.8 to 2.2 but RYM's P?B has fallen from 3.6 to 2,2

Spooky that RYM and SUM value about the same by the market

So its all about perception - both performing financially about the same but SUM perceived to be better (sentiment)



And we all know what can happen to sentiment - so don't discard Couta's theorem just yet

[winner69]

You can see the $ effect of re-rating below (in particular of RYM)

The impact of RYM's P/B ratio falling from 3.6 to 2.2 has impacted share price by $7.28 since Dec 2019 ...OUCH. If the re-rating hadn't occurred the RYM share price would be over $20 now (and bear in mind financially they have been performing in line with sector peers)

SUM's slight re-rating up from 1.8 to 2.2 added $2.25 to share price

[Beagle]

I have stated all along that what matters is earnings and a number of times over the years I have predicted that one day SUM will overtake RYM's share price and so it has come to pass.
The theorem espoused by a former poster never had any basis in investment metrics and was predicated upon nothing more than RYM's reputation relative to SUM's, (popularity).
Forbar have SUM on a forward underlying PE in the low 20's.

In the long run the market is a weighing machine, not a voting machine, (Ben Graham), and you will seldom see a better example of that coming to pass with the way these two's price relativity has changed in recent years.

[Lescy]

Local Chch news about their Park Tce development which is still in consenting stage. Adjustments needed to plans to receive resource consent. This development sits on sites which have been cleared post-quake.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/pro...hbour-backlash

[silu]

Retirement giant Ryman Healthcare smacked down in Australia, state rejects $200m project
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...AHUYMOJGQMVP4/

article of interest. I only hold SUM in that sector nowadays

[winner69]

Sales are booming at Ryman


“We’ve had a record start to the year, with cash receipts of $403 million in the first quarter, up 82% on the COVID-impacted first quarter of last year,’’ Mr MacLeod said

Last two quarters best Gordon has seen in his 15 years there

[Beagle]

Gordy hasn't been the boss for 15 years. CFO for much of that time, not CEO. The magic left this company when Simon Challis left. They've failed to meet their 15% annual growth rate almost every year since he left.

Good market information though. SUM also seeing record new and resales, bodes well for other companies in this sector (OCA and ARV).

[winner69]

Apparently shareholders expressed frustration at languishing share price at the ASM

Chairman Kerr et al sort of said the market just doesn’t get it.

One even suggested Kerr should step down …I like that shareholder