RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Beagle]

Bail on SUM as RYM will takeover tomorrow up another 4% lol. They trade places, day-on, day-off (gets me slightly suspicious)...

Nice prediction on Ryman
The new Australian director has very strong credentials. Nice addition to the board.

[winner69]

The number of people over 75 has increased by 2.3% pa over the last 10 years. Projected growth rate is 3.5% pa over the next 20 years. Similar rates apply to over 65 year olds

Everybody talks 30% pa plus growth for the likes of RYM and SUM

Obviously got to come from more than the increase in the number of potential customers (old people) because that is going to be only 3.5% pa

Maybe the %age of old people going into homes is going to increase (so we get population growth PLUS a greater % of potential punters) - they call this increased PENETRATION in the trade. What are the drivers of having more people wanting to move into homes? There is a multiplier effect here - if the % says the same customer growth remains at 3.5% but each 1% point increase adds more than 1% point to the growth rate. (say 10% in homes now and that goes to 11% demand (number of units needed) increases by 10% for instance)

Suppose another drive of growth is market share - are RYM and SUM for instance expecting to grow share of punters going to their villages?

Outside of the demand side is a lot of the profit then coming from the fianancial impacts of valuations, customer churn (poor sods dying) and other factors

Looks like all are important - because if nothing changes demand (ie number of customers) is only 3.5% pa (in spite of the headlines like doubling the numbers of old people etc)

Interesting. Maybe financial engineering in some form or another is the real profit growth engine?

Sparks - have you found out for me yet the number of people living in retirement villages at the moment (even better if you had a number for 5 or 10 years ago as well). Might build a model to see how many units are needed in the future under different scenarios to see what a likely 'demand' growth rate might be

[Beagle]

Everybody talks 30% pa plus growth for the likes of RYM and SUM

Obviously got to come from more than the increase in the number of potential customers (old people) because that is going to be only 3.5% pa

The number of New Zealanders living in retirement villages continues to increase rapidly. Among over 75 year olds, the number of people who call a retirement unit 'home' has grown from 5% in 1998 to 9% in 2011. If that growth rate continues New Zealand will need more than 21,000 extra retirement units and 20,000 aged care beds by 2031.

Extract from Summerset CEO's AGM presentation on 30 April.

Ryman's stated objective is to achieve 15% growth per annum. I believe Summerset's profit growth will be higher than that for the next few years as it seems to me they've only recently hit the critical mass necessary for rapid profit growth. I'd be surprised if it wasn't quite a bit more than 30% for the next few of years in particular as they've only recently brought building development in-house and have stated they're looking to achieve substaintially higher development margins, (Ryman's development has been handled in-house for quuite a considerable time now).

In the States I understand retirement villages account for 15% of the aged population, sorry can't post a link as I can't remember where I read that. In my view the treand will continue based on a growing recognition of the quality of life a high quality retirement village can bring to one's retirement years.

I don't think a 15% penetration of the aged population within 15 years is unreasonable, feel free to extrapolate that trend into your models

[percy]

Good for another 25 cents on the SP!


RYM
01/05/2013 09:54
DIRECTOR

REL: 0954 HRS Ryman Healthcare Limited

DIRECTOR: RYM: Ryman Appoints First Australian Director

Ryman Appoints First Australian Director

Ryman Healthcare announced today the appointment of George Savvides as its
first Australian director.

Mr Savvides is Managing Director of Medibank, Australia's largest health
insurer. He is also Chair of World Vision Australia and is a member of the
Australian Institute for Population Ageing Research.

"We are delighted that George has accepted our invitation," said Ryman
chairman Dr David Kerr.

"George brings to the Board over 20 years of healthcare experience, in both
the commercial and the public sectors. His local expertise will be
invaluable as we seek to establish ourselves in the Australian market."

Under George's leadership, Medibank has enjoyed record membership growth and
strong financial performance. Medibank's revenue has grown to over AU$5
billion per annum, with a customer base of 3.7 million people.

George joins the Board as a non-executive independent director.

Construction is underway on Ryman's first Australian village in the Melbourne
suburb of Wheelers Hill.

Last year the company lifted its build rate in New Zealand to 700 retirement
units and aged care beds.

Statistics NZ estimates the number of New Zealanders aged 75 plus will more
than double to 538,000 over the next twenty years. In Australia the outlook
is similar, with the number set to double to 2.8 million.

Established in 1984 Ryman has become one of NZ's largest listed companies.
The company currently owns 25 villages in New Zealand and serves over 7,000
residents. Each village offers a combination of retirement living and aged
care.

Ends

Media advisory: For further information, photos, interviews or comment
please contact Ryman chairman Dr David Kerr on 021 362 403, or Ryman managing
director Simon Challies on 03 3664069 or 0274 968 762
End CA:00235715 For:RYM TypeIRECTOR Time:2013-05-01 09:54:46

An important and signifciant announcement.
As always, RYM just do it right first time.

[Lawt]

Well, one year, $6.50 target is about to be hit in little over two weeks after being announced. This is RYM's new theme song I'd say...

Quick Moosie - send over more coffee.

[Beagle]

A few weeks ago I added aggressivly at $5.41 on the basis that this is the best long term growth stock in the market and as I have a super long term viewpoint now the hghish PE doesn't matter. It never entered my mind that a few weeks later they'd be up a $1 to $6.41, I thought they'd be about $6.50 by the end of the year or maybe by April 2014.

Wish I'd gone even harder now.

[Beagle]

Yeah wouldn't it be great if you could have 20/20 vision of the future

[Snow Leopard]

I reserve the right to change my tune when the results come out and they reveal their evil plan for world domination but at this moment I see no justification for this share price.

I believe that Ryman will be worth this much in almost exactly 3 years time, 2016.

Just because it has a good model which gives the best certainty of consistent future growth does not mean you should pay any price for it.

We have a Ryman bubble, there is a much speculating in this as in certain other stocks on the exchange.

I sold some of these less than two weeks ago at $5.70, successfully rode ATM from 60c to 74c and have not made significantly more than I would have done not selling.

Two months ago you could buy for $4.59, unbelievable.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Still own lots.

[777]

And 100,000 go through at 6.47 after close.

[troyvdh]

777...you beat me to it...probably it was an insto...and probably want a return on that...I often reflect on when I last saw a SP curve like whats occurring here...sure DIL and Xero are there....when I reflect on the 80's.....many companies had similar trajectories in SP...but at the end of the day..it was all waffle and hot air....me thinks that the same could not be said at present times.
I at times "flirt" with a founder of RYM....its my belief that in a few years ...after another 1/5 split....this outfit continue to perform....cheers all.