RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[winner69]

Sparks

- your homework says RYM is a solid long term 'hold', you and nobody else knows what it may be worth one day
- you and some others think it has got ahead of itself pricewise. It probably has been ahead of itself for sometime
- some (even you seem to agree) the market might fall quite a lot - if so when, we don't know
- you seem keen to protect the profits you have already made, or most of them

The adages let profits run / never try to time the market / and as Mr P said the market giveth but the market taketh away just as quick

For stocks that keep rising I have for a long time used a thing called Average True Range (ATR) as a sort of trailing loss'. Google it and see what it means as investapedia or something will explain it better than me

Essentially when a stock is consistently rising over so does the ATR. I use the ATR as the price to sell if the price starts falling. You can have tight 'stops' by using a ATR of 2 or loosen it up a bit by using a factor of 3 or 4. Nothing worse than selling and seeing the price go up again eh. To me a tried and true method that suits me. Like I I like holding stocks for years if they keep rising but I am ready to sell if indicators look like its going to down.. You'll never sell at the top but collect most of the gains.

Here is a chart of RYM with the ATR at 4 (4 times Average True Range) shown. You can see it works well for RYM and would have kept you in for the last few years (my data was a bit wonky prior to 2011 so didn't go back any further). I confess that I don't sell the exact time it hits the ATR but wait a day or two - invariably the price seems to recover. Eventually you will leave a percent or 2 on the table but have made more than that in the times the price has recovered. Would have avoided selling in that recent slight dip.

On this chart the red line is at 5.51 after todays action. I wouldn't sell until it gets back to that price (or higher if the ATR goes up). I don't have any RYM so don't need to decide but sure you will do the right thing

Still having doubts sparks .....the 551 is now 578

Don't sell any yet

[winner69]

Winner69 - not selling yet. May not sell ever!

why ever sell if the black line is going up

[percy]

Good for another 25 cents on the SP!


RYM
01/05/2013 09:54
DIRECTOR

REL: 0954 HRS Ryman Healthcare Limited

DIRECTOR: RYM: Ryman Appoints First Australian Director

Ryman Appoints First Australian Director

Ryman Healthcare announced today the appointment of George Savvides as its
first Australian director.

Mr Savvides is Managing Director of Medibank, Australia's largest health
insurer. He is also Chair of World Vision Australia and is a member of the
Australian Institute for Population Ageing Research.

"We are delighted that George has accepted our invitation," said Ryman
chairman Dr David Kerr.

"George brings to the Board over 20 years of healthcare experience, in both
the commercial and the public sectors. His local expertise will be
invaluable as we seek to establish ourselves in the Australian market."

Under George's leadership, Medibank has enjoyed record membership growth and
strong financial performance. Medibank's revenue has grown to over AU$5
billion per annum, with a customer base of 3.7 million people.

George joins the Board as a non-executive independent director.

Construction is underway on Ryman's first Australian village in the Melbourne
suburb of Wheelers Hill.

Last year the company lifted its build rate in New Zealand to 700 retirement
units and aged care beds.

Statistics NZ estimates the number of New Zealanders aged 75 plus will more
than double to 538,000 over the next twenty years. In Australia the outlook
is similar, with the number set to double to 2.8 million.

Established in 1984 Ryman has become one of NZ's largest listed companies.
The company currently owns 25 villages in New Zealand and serves over 7,000
residents. Each village offers a combination of retirement living and aged
care.

Ends

Media advisory: For further information, photos, interviews or comment
please contact Ryman chairman Dr David Kerr on 021 362 403, or Ryman managing
director Simon Challies on 03 3664069 or 0274 968 762
End CA:00235715 For:RYM TypeIRECTOR Time:2013-05-01 09:54:46

An important and signifciant announcement.
As always, RYM just do it right first time.

[Lawt]

Well, one year, $6.50 target is about to be hit in little over two weeks after being announced. This is RYM's new theme song I'd say...

Quick Moosie - send over more coffee.

[Beagle]

A few weeks ago I added aggressivly at $5.41 on the basis that this is the best long term growth stock in the market and as I have a super long term viewpoint now the hghish PE doesn't matter. It never entered my mind that a few weeks later they'd be up a $1 to $6.41, I thought they'd be about $6.50 by the end of the year or maybe by April 2014.

Wish I'd gone even harder now.

[Beagle]

Yeah wouldn't it be great if you could have 20/20 vision of the future

[777]

And 100,000 go through at 6.47 after close.

[troyvdh]

777...you beat me to it...probably it was an insto...and probably want a return on that...I often reflect on when I last saw a SP curve like whats occurring here...sure DIL and Xero are there....when I reflect on the 80's.....many companies had similar trajectories in SP...but at the end of the day..it was all waffle and hot air....me thinks that the same could not be said at present times.
I at times "flirt" with a founder of RYM....its my belief that in a few years ...after another 1/5 split....this outfit continue to perform....cheers all.

[Beagle]

wow...

Look, I adore this company. I think management are fantastic, the product is excellent, the growth plans believable and deliverable.

But I can't rationalise the price at $6.45 based on my intrinsic value analysis using the trailing twelve months EPS of 16.8cps. It suggests Ryman is around 20% overvalued (the same model told me Ryman was the It is still slightly overpriced when I use next years earnings estimate of 19.6cps.

Either Ryman's earnings growth rate spikes to 18% plus over the next few years, and we get a serious bout of optimistic forecasting from management when they announce their results in two weeks, or this stock is getting ahead of itself.

People are baking in annual revaluations as part of normalised earnings IMO. To some extent with the ever escalating cost of construction, (in no small way affected by almost monopolistic product pricing by the major building suppliers), I feel this sort of approach isn't entirely unwarranted.

I also feel the market is saying that ultra low interest rates are here for the forseeable future and considerable expansion of historical PE's is therefore justifable and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, due to the new banking regulations money in the bank isn't safe anymore so smart money is looking for somewhere where it really is safe. In effect one faces an equity risk in the bank, (they could confiscate 20% or dramatically more of your money in a crisis), for a pathetic return of 4% on term deposit before tax, what a great deal, (NOT) !!

Ever since that change the Ryman price has become supercharged. Coincidence ? or a flight to arguably New Zealand premier growth and wealth creating stock that it could be argued is in fact safer than money in the bank ? You guys decide but I won't be selling, this stock is a winner.
Peope investing now are thinking of 2014 earnings and beyond incl revaluation gains not 2012 earnings without reval gains.

[troyvdh]

dear Moosie its hard to argue against your predictions ...,.however may I say a few things may be against you...BHP for example has been truly dreadfull...same for Rio...so goes NZ wealth...as both MKTS are connected....the building costs increasing in CHCH are obscene and in all likely hood false and embarrassing to most of us...many of of us (here in CHCH) are bewildered as to the new "construction world"....

re interest rates...I do not agree with you...