RYM - Ryman Healthcare

**Beagle** · 06-05-2013, 09:30 PM

Originally Posted by turmeric

The OBR is not in effect yet, it is still in consultation phase.
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/finstab/banking/4430900.html
Your money is still safe.

Its only a matter of time. I've heard what John Key has had to say on the matter and my money is on this coming in very soon. Its effectivly a done deal, you mark my words.

Sparky - Its only natural to want to whip some cream off the top when you're sitting on such fantastic gains..., just relax and enjoy some of it...after all if you can't enjoy some of the cream from time to time what's the point of it all

Moosie - The way I see it, due to the systemic banking issues thrown up by the GFC the developed world as a whole is locked into a low interest low growth, low inflation path for many, many years to come.

**Beagle** · 06-05-2013, 09:57 PM

Only time will tell moosie.

Here's a view on Ryman's EPS. If one assumes revaluation gains are baked into normalised earnings due to the natural churn of retrement village units and the ever escalating construction costs then :-
Reported earnings per share for 2011 were 20.1 c.p.s.
Reported earnings per share for 2012 were 24.3 c.p.s.
Estimated earnings per share for 2013 - est 29.2 c.p.s. (Simple extrapolation of last years percentage growth)
Estimated earnings per share for 2014 - est 35.0 c.p.s. ( As above)

Forward PE for 2014 at today's closing price of $6.47 = 18.48, which for a company with a fantastic growth record and great prospects in Australia doesn't look too expensive to me.

Note also this company's cash flow increased 27% last year and no matter how you slice and dice the EPS and valuation theory...we all know its really all about cash flow.

**Beagle** · 07-05-2013, 10:41 AM

Yes, got a bit forward looking with earlier comments, my mistake. I guess some people will wait for the legislation to be enacted and then look for other alternative investments, (I suspect the vast majority won't even realise the new risk they've inadvertently exposed themselves too), whereas those that realise the game is basically up for low risk term deposits are already doing something about it, hence the rush to high quality growth stocks like Ryman by forward looking investors.

The market is clearly looking for a very strong result from Ryman next week.

P.S. I think we need to change the title of this thread, Ryman is anything but boring

**777** · 07-05-2013, 10:59 AM

Of course it's boring. All it does is go up.

**Snow Leopard** · 07-05-2013, 11:59 AM

I reserve the right to change my tune when the results come out and they reveal their evil plan for world domination but at this moment I see no justification for this share price.

I believe that Ryman will be worth this much in almost exactly 3 years time, 2016.

Just because it has a good model which gives the best certainty of consistent future growth does not mean you should pay any price for it.

We have a Ryman bubble, there is a much speculating in this as in certain other stocks on the exchange.

I sold some of these less than two weeks ago at $5.70, successfully rode ATM from 60c to 74c and have not made significantly more than I would have done not selling.

Two months ago you could buy for $4.59, unbelievable.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Still own lots.

**Beagle** · 07-05-2013, 03:00 PM

Well First N.Z. Capital who some on here claim are N.Z.'s leading broker that do the best reasearch came out the other day and valued them at $6.95, (one would presume after recently meeting with company exec's and having some in depth discussions about current trading conditions and future plans...). Next weeks annual result is eagerly awaited.

P.S. A lot of stocks appear fully valued at present, only a very few of which have outstanding long term growth prospects.

**tosspot** · 07-05-2013, 06:24 PM

If you dont mind me asking sparky how much of RYM do you own. over $100,000?

**Arbroath** · 07-05-2013, 06:57 PM

Great company and well managed but now well overpriced. Agree with Sparky that it's probably c. 20% overvalued. Thought it looked fair value at $4.50-4.75 area but as often happens the market gets carried away with stocks that it loves.

**hilskin** · 07-05-2013, 10:29 PM

A question for the experienced investors on here.
How do you think RYM will hold up if there is a correction in the market. I am a small time investor and I hold a small amount of shares in RYM (1000 shares purchased at $5.00 ) which if i sold tomorrow would give me a tidy little profit. I wish i brought more at the time and then I would have no problems selling some to realize the profit and still be in a good position to sit through a correction of the market if it happens, but I don't.
Do I sell now and look to come back in at a lower price point or do you believe RYM will hold up through a market correction so I should just hold as it is such a great company with huge potential. At the end of the day it is crystal ball stuff but I am just interested in your opinions on this company if there is a big correction in the market.
Cheers