RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Placebo]

Up 5c today... is the jinx broken [^]

Boss: Forbarr's valuations apply to the here-and-now, I don't know of brokerages that say "we believe in 5 years time this stock will cost X dollars". Would be a brave call IMO.

The market seems to agree with the 660 figure

[Lizard]

Hi Boss. I like your analysis, which is similar to what I did on MET when I bought in from $1.40 - $2.20. The reason I chose MET over RYM is that they provided more detailed historical information, which enabled me to model the likely amounts of amenities contribution and resales gains to be booked to profit each year. In addition, I thought their capital gains would be better, being centred more around the North Island and especially Auckland - historically better performers for capital gain. Of course, although a good performer, it hasn't actually performed as well as RYM. I think this has largely been the better pace of development at RYM, and, possibly better margins on development.

Like you, I have made my valuation based on the increase in shareholders equity rather than the reported profit, benefiting from the fact that analysts have been slow to make the switch from valuing based on bottom-line profit - a figure which really represents ancient history for these companies.

[TheBossMan]

Very nice Lizard, you're spot on. I liked MET too and if I recall their RNOA was better than Ryman for most of 2003-5.

One of the less known secrets about Ryman is to choose undervalued sites and in some cases poorly managed sections, although situated strategically close to the city centres. They have stayed away from developing in remote areas, as the residents' children may not like to travel far to visit them with the grandkids.

As a matter of disclosure, I've now sold all of my Ryman's shares. This has been purely because of my cashflow problems and that I need the money to buy a property and also to invest in Indian firms, where I'm likely to get better returns in the medium-term. I realise I've sold too early when there is still a couple of bucks left, but a variety of circumstances forced me to sell them.

However, I'll follow this stock closely and contribute to this thread, as this is the first company for which I've done a comprehensive valuation and even if the SP reaches $8, I'd be happy with my efforts. Best of luck for those fortunate to be still holding and remember to send me the christmas card.

Disc: None held

[Placebo]

Very nice Boss, and you'll be pleased to know that, once WAM winds up as it looks it will do, I will be happy to park at least part of my windfall in RYM.

[TheBossMan]

good idea Placebo. $6.60 as a result of F.Barr's recommendation.

[minimoke]

Looks like the competition could be heating up: "... Giant Australian-owned retirement village specialists have bought $256.1 million of assets in New Zealand, taking control of two of the largest privately owned aged-care chains...."

Article link is http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/st...ectid=10376239

[TheBossMan]

yep, it is a good industry to be in and hence the interest. Ryman and METlife are way ahead in the game.

[TheBossMan]

Ryman to build a $50m retirement village in New Plymouth.

Very likely they would have paid a huge price to acquire the land, but it should not affect the valuation in the long run.
-------------------------------
Listed retirement village operator, Ryman Healthcare, today announced they
have purchased a 7.89 hectare site in New Plymouth for their 19th retirement
village.

The sunny, North facing site on Barrett Road will, once fully developed,
provide homes for more than 220 residents and employ at least 50 staff.

"We are delighted to secure such an outstanding site, which offers views to
the sea on one side, and a magnificent framing of Mt Taranaki on the other"
Ryman Development Manager, Ray Versey, said today.

The land is sufficient to develop a fully integrated retirement village of up
to 72 townhouses, 50 serviced apartments, a village centre and up to an 80
bed care centre.

The village centre will feature full dining facilities, an indoor heated
swimming pool, library, internet cafe, gymnasium, beauty salon and an all
weather bowling green.

"The development is still in the concept stages but we hope to lodge for
resource consent in the next few months," Mr Versey said.

Ryman, one of New Zealand's most experienced retirement village providers, is
a five time winner of the Australasian Aged Care Housing Award for the Best
Retirement Village in New Zealand.

Ryman Healthcare this week opened the Jane Winstone Retirement Village on the
famous old Sacred Heart College site in St John's Hill, Wanganui. The
company recently acquired land for new villages in Palmerston North and
Nelson.

Ryman is currently building in Auckland, Napier, Wanganui, Lower Hutt,
Wellington and Invercargill.

The company provides homes and care services to more than 2700 New
Zealanders, employing more than 1400 staff.
----------------------------

[Snow Leopard]

At the risk of having TheBoss telling us how he told us so or, even worse, Placebo mumbling:

Up 40c to $7.00.

I dare say the reason will become apparent in due course

[TheBossMan]

Well, it is partly due to the good press in the weekend Dominion. Also, people could be trying to put their money in "defensive" stocks.

Lifestyle villages are trending up, especially when retired people from US/UK see NZ as an attractive location to spend the rest of their lives. Demand for units in places like Nelson and warmer regions is set to continue.

good on you for those holding on...

disc: hold none