RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[born2invest]

I never pay attention to macro economics.

"We will continue to ignore political and economic forecasts which are an expensive distraction for many investors and businessmen. Thirty years ago, no one could have foreseen the huge expansion of the Vietnam War, wage and price controls, two oil shocks, the resignation of a president, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a one-day drop in the Dow of 508 points, or treasury bill yields fluctuating between 2.8% and 17.4%. But surprise: None of these blockbuster events made even the slightest dent in Ben Graham's investment principles. Nor did they render unsound the negotiated purchases of fine businesses at sensible prices. Imagine the cost to us, if we had let a fear of unknowns cause us to defer or alter the deployment of capital. Indeed, we have usually made our best purchases when apprehensions about some macro event were at a peak. Fear is the foe of the faddist, but the friend of the fundamentalist"

[born2invest]

Certainly not saying forecasting macro trends is easy, quite the opposite. HOWEVER, QE, it's duration, and it's effects on equity markets has been pretty clear cut. Jumping on that bandwagon has been a no brainer!!

So are you refering to the share prices going up or the underlying business benefiting?

Because the short term direction of the share price frequently bears no resemblance on how the business itself is doing.

[muss1]

Just to clear up my view:

Ryman is a great company and I think they can achieve their quoted NPAT growth of 15%. I think it looks expensive at the moment and am trying to work out whether it is justified and able to be supported due to market conditions etc. I am a long term holder and am looking for an opportunity to top up. I don't think this is justified until there is a decent sized correction. Haven't come up with an SP for that opportunity yet..

[born2invest]

I'm referring to the SPs and I agree with what you are saying.

Maybe Ryman is due a correction at some point, who knows (clearly there is disagreement on this thread). All else equal though, I don't think it will happen so long as QE continues. I've based (in part) the timing of my equity investments based on the bigger macro picture, but of course I have then tried to pick quality companies as well. It's worked for me so far, so I'm going to stick with it. I will likely start selling off some of my holdings early next year.

So do you try to time your share purchases with NZ interest rates, exchange rates, etc?

[born2invest]

Haven't come up with an SP for that opportunity yet..

Then how do you know when the opportunity comes along?

[muss1]

Then how do you know when the opportunity comes along?

Note the "yet".. When I get a minute. Just interested in people's overall view

[born2invest]

Note the "yet".. When I get a minute. Just interested in people's overall view

So you follow other peoples ideas rather than doing your own independent research and reaching your own conclusions?

[muss1]

So you follow other peoples ideas rather than doing your own independent research and reaching your own conclusions?

Haha. You can't honestly believe what you just said? More of a troll surely.

I've already told you why I think, but I haven't put a value on it YET. My opinion hasn't changed from what I've read over the last few days in this thread. I will work out where I want to have another bite at Ryman.

If you don't agree with people discussing ideas then why are you even here?

[born2invest]

Haha. You can't honestly believe what you just said? More of a troll surely.

I've already told you why I think, but I haven't put a value on it YET. My opinion hasn't changed from what I've read over the last few days in this thread. I will work out where I want to have another bite at Ryman.

If you don't agree with people discussing ideas then why are you even here?

I agree with others discussing ideas.

I just come up with my own valuations rather than following others.

[Snow Leopard]

Ryman has a current (well 23-Oct-2013) value of $5.049 (note the 3 decimal places there, it is precise and accurate).

Any valuations above or below this are plain wrong. End of story.

So currently it is drastically overpriced and the only reason I have not sold any is that the price keeps going up.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger