RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Bjauck]

Bjauck- The repayment to the resident is fixed so they do not suffer capital loses (atleast not with RYM, sum,met). Some operators charge the refurb cost to the exiting resident (RYM definitely doesn't though they may reserve the right if the place is trashed)

Consumer in Feb 2013 produced a comparison of retirement villages charges which can be found here http://www.consumer.org.nz/reports/r.../market-growth . In their table it claims that any capital loss on resale is paid by MET residents in addition to the up to 30% amortisation of original purchase price. RYM and SUM residents are not liable for capital loss (according to this table). In the table, the only other provider to charge for capital losses is BUPA.

I still have not seen current licence agreements. I imagine they can change at any time. In a static or declining property market, whether an operator has an additional charge for decline in value could have a material bearing on a prospective resident's choice of operator.

[skid]

Hypothetical but actually pretty close to my guestimates (based on FY2013), which I have dug up from the dusty back shelves of my hard drive:

The average re-sale of occupation rights : $358K
The average previous sale or resale of same occupation rights: $309K
Average return of monies associated with previous sale: (above less fees) $256K.

Basically each existing unit is currently worth about $10K per year in net inflow of occupation loans: total $37M

New sales are actually very important as they represent $358K per new unit of cash and represent the bulk of net cash inflow: total $179M.

And of course it is the influx of new 'borrowed' money that creates the virtuous circle:
Build new units (and buy other plant & property) with borrowed money;
Sell new units and get more borrowed money;
repeat and rinse.
This is made all the merrier in the asset ledger by the difference between the cost of building the unit and the market value of that same unit (revaluations).
Ryman are very good at this.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: All figures are approximate and may be totally wrong.

Thats all good in a rising property market--but not so good in a falling market.
The world share markets and NZ property (and OZ to a lesser extent) are the 2 main outside forces
Best not to disregard them IMHO

[Vaygor1]

Oh, I can well imagine. They had a SELL at $3.50 in March of this year. If Nachi Moghe (the Morningstar analyst covering RYM) is reading this website, per chance, then I hope he shaves his head as an act of humility, and commits to wearing sackcloth for the next year.

Is that why Nachi Moghe is an anagram for "Him. Can he go?".

[Harvey Specter]

The retirement home beat up in the Hearld has started. The first articles were pretty weak so dont expect they will have any impact on the shareprice of the listed trio.

[Slam dunk]

Report out from First NZC today...they're expecting RYM to increase their build rate in Aus over the next 5 years to be equal to NZ build rate. That is, an increase in total build rate from 700 to 1400 units in c5 years. Nice!!

[Vaygor1]

The retirement home beat up in the Hearld has started. The first articles were pretty weak so dont expect they will have any impact on the shareprice of the listed trio.

I was looking up the web over the weekend to review any news involving SUM,RYM, and MET (in particular RYM due to its recent announcement) and didn't find much at all. I did find though, on various forums on ShareTrader that a number of shares unexpectedly dropped over the last few trading days despite positive announcements, the most notable being FPH. As such, with little more info from RYM forthcoming for a while, I don't expect to see any major rebound this week, or even before about Feb 2014 due to the general lack-of-stock-market-interest over the Christmas and holiday period... even a further drop from an increase in sell volumes from the mum-and-dad investors needing some extra cash over the festive season?

Notwithstanding the above, regarding RYM's short-term share price, as per the lyrics from kiwi band The Clean, anything could happen and it could be right now.

[winner69]

RYM price still trending upwards in the linear regression channel - at about 1% per week .... good eh

No worries vaygor - just the regular ebb and flows of the market

[troyvdh]

dear winner...you have to admit...whats occurring...re sp....does not happen that often....like I mean...how many sp trajectories...remain so...get my drift.....

I hasten to add of course that I am not complaining...hell no

Hold only 5000 bought a while back

[winner69]

dear winner...you have to admit...whats occurring...re sp....does not happen that often....like I mean...how many sp trajectories...remain so...get my drift.....

I hasten to add of course that I am not complaining...hell no

Hold only 5000 bought a while back

Is it overvalued? Who cares, must have been overvalued for a long time

Do 40 to 50 cents fall matter? Not really, just what happens when buyers and sellers meet in the market.

Can it continue going up forever? Probably not forever but who knows. All I do is keep an eye on th chart. So I build rates are going to be same as nz in 5 years the line will probably keep going up, up and up

[troyvdh]

cheers winner...as an aside if have asked RYM if they are aware of ST and its posts blah blah...given that a few have been quite critical...so we shall soon have a reply.