RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Jasemc]

Think a lot of people playing this stock at the moment easy money for now.

[Jasemc]

Well done!

[Joshuatree]

Out now . Hope it is up to expectations.Lotsa good numbers.
Profit +17.9%
Rev +12.1%
fair value movement of prop +46%
total income +45%
NPBT +35%
NPATre $195Mill +42%
Earnings per share +43%
Div + 15%

[percy]

Yet another cracker result.Well done RYM.

[Beagle]

Reasonable but not outstanding result in my opinion and I agree that it will be interesting to see the market reaction after a huge ramp up in the SP over the last three years. Increase in build rate to 850 units a year but not till 2017....
Lower build rate in 2014 and lower new unit sales compared to pcp.
Much lower growth in cash flow this year compared to last.
Core EPS excluding revaluations of 27.3 c.p.s. puts them on a PE of 32.2 on a growth rate in EPS of 18%.

[stoploss]

Just been listening to the dial in . It is very good to hear the executives talk in such a positive manner. They have come a long way in the 15 years since the listing . One can only wonder at the possible growth over the next 15 years in Australia. Congratulations to the team @ Ryman. These are still firmly in the bottom drawer.

[stoploss]

down she goes

Originally Posted by NewGuy
I would suggest that RYM is nearing bubble territory with a PEG ratio of about 1.5 compared to only 0.5 for SUM. However, I agree that any correction is unlikely to occur over the next few months.



Hi newGuy,
Just a quote from someone a lot smarter than any of us ..." markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" So words like Bubble , or Coutas "lot priced in " or " over exuberance" should be used sparingly .
Remember people thought AAPL was expensive @ $ 50.00 and $ 100, $ 200, $ 300, $400, $ 500, ........ ( probably a few share splits on the way as well ) So the lesson is stay with the winners .

NewGuy, thought we did the bubble thing a few months ago ........

[Vaygor1]

if the SP continues to grow like it has, the PE will soon be off the chart and way into bubble territory (IMHO)

The PE is a ratio so will only climb if the SP growth outstrips earnings growth.
Earnings/Share (Basic and diluted) are up 43% from last year. Number of shares has not changed so Earnings are up 43%
By my calcs, this means the PE ratio drops by 30% assuming a constant share price.

As per my last few posts, SP growth should be measured from 2007 imho, not from 2010 when the SP was a bargain.

[Beagle]

My policy is not too pay for growth that isn't there. Using a fair value long term PE of 8.5 for a zero growth company and adding in consistent growth at 18% per annum my simple model gives me a long term fair value PE of 26.5 times for Ryman.
26.5 times core EPS of 27.3 c.p.s. = $7.23 fair value. I wouldn't buy or own the stock above this level.
EPS growth is not 43%, this includes revaluations.

[Jasemc]

probably bounce up as day gets to an end. Couta1 might have some easy money again.