RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Vaygor1]

Yes mate but will we be here to see it in 20 years ?

Property Developer sees the market cooling.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...day:dailybrief

Vaygor1 - I think the Reserve Bank are determined to cool the property market down and the market is starting to ask have we hit a peak with house prices and if so what does that mean that in the long run ? Are these Retirement village operators going to face declining profit margins on resale in the medium term ?
The market has had an exceptional run in Auckland. Are you coming back to N.Z. ?
Certainly if you look at it from an issue of affordability with the average house price in Auckland now ~ $700,000 you'd have to wonder. You've only got to get the slightest doubt on future growth on a PE of 35 and the market can correct quickly.
We're already down about 7-8% in Rym and SUM in the last 3 months.

Hi Roger.

The reserve bank is sure trying to cool the market, but the the government won't want property values to start going negative.
I have posted this graph before I think, not sure if it it was on this thread.

Attachment 6079

The only year the since 1992 the median has dropped by any real margin was in 2009 and it took a Global Financial Crisis to do it.

The 7 year cycle from sale to resale of a retirement unit irons this out further. Eyeballing the chart above, I get the following:

Attachment 6083

This shows that the last year (or last two years if using a 6-year cycle) of realised property value increase through the resale of occupation rights should be the worst to-date for RYM, and yet their last two years' results have still been sterling.

So in this respect, and with retirement unit demand further outstripping supply as per the graph in my last post, I am comfortable.

[couta1]

Hi Couta.

Can you clarify where you get the number 13 from? From RYM's announcement yesterday (Refer https://www.nzx.com/companies/RYM/announcements/253278 ),

New villages are being planned at:
1 Birkenhead, Auckland
2 Devonport, Auckland
3 Brandon Park, Melbourne
4 Pukekohe
5 Newtown, Wellington
6 Tropicana Farm, Blockhouse Bay, Auckland
7 Greenlane, Auckland
8 Rangiora, Canterbury

I note that they have not included the new college site at Wheeler's Hill in this list, are there any others?

On top of this, there are 3 under construction but as such I wouldn't count them as Land Bank, especially numbers 1 and 2 below which now have residents I understand.

1 Bruce McLaren Retirement Village, Howick, Auckland
2 Weary Dunlop Retirement Village, Wheelers Hill, Melbourne
3 Petone

Hi Vaygor, That 13 was a wrong figure it should be 10 counting the new college site at Wheelers Hill and you would count Petone as it is still only at the earthworks stage,cheers

[Beagle]

Hi Vaygor1,

Fair enough but just FYI I had the GM of one of the major Australian owned real estate companies in my office last week and he told me the Reserve bank's policies have been extremely tough on the provinces and that's before the last 25 bps increase. Prices down on average $30,000 in many of the provinces year on year.

That there is plenty of demand going forward in the retirement sector, that's a given.

Hi Percy,

You make a good point about funeral parlours with great humour, good post

[percy]

"I say is that the smell of roast pork for lunch?"
"No, they are cremating old Percy who died the other day.!"

[Joshuatree]

Or dehydrate you and tan your hide and make 10,000 bookmarks

[Vaygor1]

In New Plymouth, the crematorium with its belching chimney is right next door to the water treatment plant. Maybe a market there for bottled drinking water with extra nutrients, from the source. Yum

[Beagle]

The Oracle of Plymouth...yes folks rock up... this very special water will give you magic powers conferred upon us by the legendary share trader uncle Percy himself...get that goodness right inside you

[winner69]

Was last week but good on ryman
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU140...lage-brand.htm

More credible Han some other awards in the sector?

[Joshuatree]

...."No one has ever escaped our dementia wards (but we seem to always have a few extra stroppy patients when we headcount)".....

[Vaygor1]

Was last week but good on ryman
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU140...lage-brand.htm

More credible than some other awards in the sector?

Thanks Winner.
Yes, in my view this award is a lot more credible than some of the awards that other players in the sector claim.

On a separate note. I see SUM down to $3.00 today.