RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Rob Optimist]

What's happening with Ryman guys?

[couta1]

What's happening with Ryman guys?

Has been under MA200 for a while and has had no news for some time may have to wait till closer to next set of results to see any significant price increase, notice that Sum also testing the old $3.20 level again after its lastest set of good results both stocks at around the price they were 2 years ago so pretty stagnant overall.

[percy]

Ryman share price is looking weak trading at $7.79 today, which is under both the 50 day EMA [moving average] $8.10, and the 200 day EMA $8.03.It did drop to $7.22 on the 17th October last year.Will be interesting to see if it tests that price again.
The full year result is due mid May.

[777]

Not a dividend yield company. That appears to be where the money is going at present.

[Rob Optimist]

Thanks for the info, see what happens I think

[Snow Leopard]

(posted on 20-Mar-2014)
Attachment 5606
YoY for specified time period
(SP accuracy not guaranteed)

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Attachment 7211

Happy Anniversary
Paper Tiger

[kizame]

Of the super charts menu on ANZ securities, performance for the 2 years to 18 February 2015
SUM up 24%
MET up 51%
RYM up 74%
NZX50 up 37%
and just to put the sector into context because I think the whole sector has run too hard and PE's are really stretched...here's a couple of stocks, still with very modest PE's notwithstanding recent performance for comparison
HNZ up 91%
AIR up 109%

Hmmm...does performance for the last five minutes really matter...or should we focus on the quality of the management and their ability to execute well over time and whether a stock's PE multiple is stretched or not ?

PE s really stretched? Crikey I don't think so mate,look at the growth potential of RYM and a pe of 17?

Actually they are pretty good value in my books,but of course timing with the help of charts is key.

[Beagle]

Underlying earnings is what counts. Underlying earnings takes full account of all income actually earned in the year including the resale of occupation licences during the year at higher values than they were previously sold for and takes into account all realised development margins and any income these companies make from the actual operation of their villages, which in SUM's case is ostensibly nothing. International financial reporting standards (IFRS), requires property companies to declare income inclusive of the revaluation of all property to current market value each year. This gives a false view of earnings as values can track up, down or sideways and no matter which way they track the company doesn't actually earn money on the unit value changes until the year in which they are subsequently resold.

Simply put, a profit isn't a profit until it is actually realised. IFRS accounting standards accounts for unrealised profits which may not in fact be earned for a decade out or potentially even longer when the unit is eventually vacated and resold to another occupier.

SUM are the best of the bunch at clearly articulating the difference between accounting methodologies...LOL at least they get that right. RYM and SUM on circa 30 times underlying earnings and MET on about 18.

In my opinion RYM and more especially SUM have got a bit ahead of their fair value and we may now be in a long slow grind of under-performance while earnings growth slowly catches up to the SP. Both stocks have significantly under-performed the market in the last year and I expect they'll continue to under-perform for at least one more year, probably significantly longer. Its interesting to note consensus 12 month broker price targets are very close to where SUM and RYM are currently trading whereas consensus for MET is circa $5.80 v the current SP of $4.75. Clearly on a discounted cash flow basis the brokers are using MET is the only stock in this sector to offer any real value.

Disc - Own MET. Happy to wait indefinitely for $6.50 for RYM. Most likely in my opimnion is RYM won't go down to $6.50 but will track sideways and with earnings growth over the next year or two will probably be fair value around where they are now, in due course. For those that want (for whatever reason), to use IFRS earnings its worth noting that while RYM is on 17 times IFRS earnings MET is on about 9.

[kizame]

Hmmn very interesting Roger,well I'll continue to watch the charts and see when either the sideways stall has ceased,or the slow trek down has turned.

[Vaygor1]

Gee this share must still be extremely boring.

FY announcement in 2 days and not a word on this thread in the past 2 months.

That $6.50/share looking more and more elusive Roger.

My forecast... Underlying profit up around 17% on previous year and a divvy of 7.2c/share for H2 (Total of 13.5c/share for the full year).

Disc. Still a happy holder.