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22-05-2015, 06:47 PM
#2271
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23-05-2015, 03:33 PM
#2272
Ryman another great year with earnings (underlying) up 15% plus
That should have added $1.34 to the share price
But the market thought Ryman was way overvalued and took $2.25 away.
From March 14 to March 15 share price down $0.91, in spite of Ryman making heaps more money.
Market reratings down can be painful. Ryman still at historically high multiples ......the rerating might just continue
Last edited by winner69; 23-05-2015 at 03:34 PM.
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23-05-2015, 06:01 PM
#2273
Originally Posted by winner69
Ryman another great year with earnings (underlying) up 15% plus
That should have added $1.34 to the share price
But the market thought Ryman was way overvalued and took $2.25 away.
From March 14 to March 15 share price down $0.91, in spite of Ryman making heaps more money.
Market reratings down can be painful. Ryman still at historically high multiples ......the rerating might just continue
Just goes to show how intelligent the market really is aye, pass another Tui mate.
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25-05-2015, 10:23 AM
#2274
Where do you see fair value then Couta, and how long do you expect current growth to last? You seem to know better than the market.
My very simple model has 13% growth p.a for the next 20 years and 2% growth thereafter at a discount rate of 10%. Gives fair value at around $9.50, I think the market has it about right.
Keep in mind if Rym grows at 13% for the next 20 years it will we 11.5 times the size it is now, which means it will probably be expanding further abroad than aus. However due to company history and well established demographics peaking in 20-30 years Rym is probably the only company I would project such growth over such a long term.
Originally Posted by NewGuy
IMHO, underlying earnings is the only truly relevant metric for this sector. Unrealised gains are already captured in the projected growth rate of future profits and therefore do not need to be added back in. Doing so leads to double counting and is unhelpful for valuation purposes.
I agree with this and only use underlying earnings, as newguy says unrealised gains are taken into account with the growth forecast.
Last edited by James108; 25-05-2015 at 10:36 AM.
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25-05-2015, 11:12 AM
#2275
James like yourself I see growth continuing for a similar timeframe at a rate ranging between 15-18% per year but after that I see a stagnant growth period as occupancy rates fall post the baby boom peak and then the stock will become more of a dividend play IMHO. Re the market remember this is the same market that took the likes of Xero to $45 last year so is very fickle and often wrong and I believe is in a correction phase at present otherwise I think Rymans price would be sitting at around the $8.50 range post its results.
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25-05-2015, 11:40 AM
#2276
Great retirement planning stock and one of the very few you can be really confident about regarding the consistency of their long term growth rate. Someone in their fifties need look no further. Buy $100K of stock now and retire in one of their new units in 20 years using the proceeds of the sale of RYM shares. Investing doesn't get any simpler than that
Last edited by Beagle; 25-05-2015 at 11:42 AM.
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25-05-2015, 01:20 PM
#2277
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25-05-2015, 01:40 PM
#2278
Originally Posted by NewGuy
Meanwhile the SP is back to where it was when I sold out last February...
I sold out July 14. Cant see a reentry point yet.
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25-05-2015, 02:01 PM
#2279
Originally Posted by Harvey Specter
I sold out July 14. Cant see a reentry point yet.
Anytime at these levels if your going long,went to $7.22 and I doubt you'll see it there again unless some major macro event unfolds.
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25-05-2015, 02:37 PM
#2280
Very soon... NZ economy on borrowed time. Greece can't repay.... needs extension before defaults.
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