RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Beagle]

Good to have you back on board Roger, now you hold MET and RYM you wouldn't be thinking of adding SUM other one to your portfolio now would you

LOL not unless SUM one puts a gun to my head Nope, I only invest in companies with boards and management that have an absolutely impeccable record of integrity.
First class management and top quality boards and governance will always create more value over time than any other single factor IMHO. As Mercedes-Benz say "The best or Nothing" although I am not too sure about them anymore but that's another story for another time.

[winner69]

Ryman another great year with earnings (underlying) up 15% plus

That should have added $1.34 to the share price

But the market thought Ryman was way overvalued and took $2.25 away.

From March 14 to March 15 share price down $0.91, in spite of Ryman making heaps more money.

Market reratings down can be painful. Ryman still at historically high multiples ......the rerating might just continue

[couta1]

Ryman another great year with earnings (underlying) up 15% plus

That should have added $1.34 to the share price

But the market thought Ryman was way overvalued and took $2.25 away.

From March 14 to March 15 share price down $0.91, in spite of Ryman making heaps more money.

Market reratings down can be painful. Ryman still at historically high multiples ......the rerating might just continue

Just goes to show how intelligent the market really is aye, pass another Tui mate.

[James108]

Where do you see fair value then Couta, and how long do you expect current growth to last? You seem to know better than the market.

My very simple model has 13% growth p.a for the next 20 years and 2% growth thereafter at a discount rate of 10%. Gives fair value at around $9.50, I think the market has it about right.

Keep in mind if Rym grows at 13% for the next 20 years it will we 11.5 times the size it is now, which means it will probably be expanding further abroad than aus. However due to company history and well established demographics peaking in 20-30 years Rym is probably the only company I would project such growth over such a long term.

IMHO, underlying earnings is the only truly relevant metric for this sector. Unrealised gains are already captured in the projected growth rate of future profits and therefore do not need to be added back in. Doing so leads to double counting and is unhelpful for valuation purposes.

I agree with this and only use underlying earnings, as newguy says unrealised gains are taken into account with the growth forecast.

[couta1]

James like yourself I see growth continuing for a similar timeframe at a rate ranging between 15-18% per year but after that I see a stagnant growth period as occupancy rates fall post the baby boom peak and then the stock will become more of a dividend play IMHO. Re the market remember this is the same market that took the likes of Xero to $45 last year so is very fickle and often wrong and I believe is in a correction phase at present otherwise I think Rymans price would be sitting at around the $8.50 range post its results.

[Beagle]

Great retirement planning stock and one of the very few you can be really confident about regarding the consistency of their long term growth rate. Someone in their fifties need look no further. Buy $100K of stock now and retire in one of their new units in 20 years using the proceeds of the sale of RYM shares. Investing doesn't get any simpler than that

[couta1]

Meanwhile the SP is back to where it was when I sold out last February...

Ditto for Summerset

[Harvey Specter]

Meanwhile the SP is back to where it was when I sold out last February...

I sold out July 14. Cant see a reentry point yet.

[couta1]

I sold out July 14. Cant see a reentry point yet.

Anytime at these levels if your going long,went to $7.22 and I doubt you'll see it there again unless some major macro event unfolds.

[gv1]

Very soon... NZ economy on borrowed time. Greece can't repay.... needs extension before defaults.