RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[winner69]

However Sharetrader.co.nz is also sub-titled "NZ's Number One share market forum for investors". ​

We are all traders - some short term and some medium term and some long term

Very few (if any) true investors on here

[couta1]

We are all traders - some short term and some medium term and some long term

Very few (if any) true investors on here

On this particular stock, I can think of one (Vaygor 1) but otherwise the true investors are probably the Guests forever watching the posting action on the various threads.

[minimoke]

This is one stock i just let sit there with no cause for concern. My portfolio is very heavily overweighted with RYM but i cant be bothered reducing it as it continues over the long term to perform very well. Consequently its on a very wide stoploss as i remain confident any fall will come back up in not too bad a time. Ill probably keep holding till im ready to move into one of their homes in which case ill get a massive discount on purchase. Simply put - its a grief free holding. (Unlike skt which keeps threatening my stoploss but doesnt quite get there!)

[Soolaimon]

I "invested" in RYM 8 years ago and have held since and will continue to do so. Very happy.

[Vaygor1]

This post was sparked in-part by coming across the rubbish MorningStar are commenting on about RYM, their advise to Hold, and their current fair-value price.... "Ryman's Outstanding Growth Will be Hit If House Prices Fall; We Raise our Fair Value to NZD 9.10 [HOLD]"

After holding and accumulating RYM for 9 years, I have tried, tested, and witnessed an enormous variety of methods and means to evaluate this share from both my own analyses and those from a wide range of holders and non-holders alike. No one method being completely right or completely wrong.

The historical growth of this company along with its future growth has been, and will continue to be the easiest to accurately predict out of any NZ publicly listed share due to its consistent growth, fundamental business model, and board integrity.

So, for reasons I may chose to divulge (if pressed), the price of a RYM share under rational average market conditions reached $10.00 today. If 15%/annum capital growth + a low annual dividend (growing at a not-low 15%/annum) is acceptable then that is the minimum this share will achieve over the long term if purchased today at $10.00.

Last week this figure was $9.97. This time next week it will be $10.03

My current view is RYM's H1 result (due out in 3 months) will be on the low side just like it was last year predominantly due to the timing of their village openings. If historical irrational market behaviour is anything to go by, one may well get an opportunity to buy at under $9.00 (as low as $8.50 even) before April 2017... or one may not.

[macduffy]

My current view is RYM's H1 result (due out in 3 months) will be on the low side just like it was last year predominantly due to the timing of their village openings. If historical irrational market behaviour is anything to go by, one may well get an opportunity to buy at under $9.00 (as low as $8.50 even) before April 2017... or one may not.

I doubt whether the timing of the village openings, per se, is the important factor here. As an example, the Bob Scott village opened in December last year but appears to only now be getting into "full gear" as building continues apace. Plenty of future growth there.

[winner69]

This post was sparked in-part by coming across the rubbish MorningStar are commenting on about RYM, their advise to Hold, and their current fair-value price.... "Ryman's Outstanding Growth Will be Hit If House Prices Fall; We Raise our Fair Value to NZD 9.10 [HOLD]"

After holding and accumulating RYM for 9 years, I have tried, tested, and witnessed an enormous variety of methods and means to evaluate this share from both my own analyses and those from a wide range of holders and non-holders alike. No one method being completely right or completely wrong.

The historical growth of this company along with its future growth has been, and will continue to be the easiest to accurately predict out of any NZ publicly listed share due to its consistent growth, fundamental business model, and board integrity.

So, for reasons I may chose to divulge (if pressed), the price of a RYM share under rational average market conditions reached $10.00 today. If 15%/annum capital growth + a low annual dividend (growing at a not-low 15%/annum) is acceptable then that is the minimum this share will achieve over the long term if purchased today at $10.00.

Last week this figure was $9.97. This time next week it will be $10.03

My current view is RYM's H1 result (due out in 3 months) will be on the low side just like it was last year predominantly due to the timing of their village openings. If historical irrational market behaviour is anything to go by, one may well get an opportunity to buy at under $9.00 (as low as $8.50 even) before April 2017... or one may not.

Good one mate

Suppose using the same rationale / methodology on Summerset i would suggest one would get a value well in excess of $6 (today and increasing by the week)

[minimoke]

This post was sparked in-part by coming across the rubbish MorningStar are commenting on about RYM, their advise to Hold, and their current fair-value price.... "Ryman's Outstanding Growth Will be Hit If House Prices Fall; We Raise our Fair Value to NZD 9.10 [HOLD]"

So, for reasons I may chose to divulge (if pressed), the price of a RYM share under rational average market conditions reached $10.00 today. If 15%/annum capital growth + a low annual dividend (growing at a not-low 15%/annum) is acceptable then that is the minimum this share will achieve over the long term if purchased today at $10.00.

Last week this figure was $9.97. This time next week it will be $10.03

You've lost me. Rational market today has RYM at $9.64. Last friday $9.45

[Vaygor1]

You've lost me. Rational market today has RYM at $9.64. Last friday $9.45

Hence my use of the term Rational Average Market. The market is seldom rational at any time.

[Vaygor1]

I doubt whether the timing of the village openings, per se, is the important factor here. As an example, the Bob Scott village opened in December last year but appears to only now be getting into "full gear" as building continues apace. Plenty of future growth there.

The villages are opened in multiple stages, but the initial opening of a village causes the biggest leap in Underlying Profit, before which the asset is not recognised above the book value they purchased the land for.

Last financial year, RYM H1 presentation:
- increase in underlying profit of 6%
- increase in unrealised valuation gains lifted the IFRS after-tax profit by 23%
- built 166 units and no care-beds
- forecast H2 build of 450 units and 330 beds by the opening of 4 villages (Petone, Birkenhead, Pukekohe, and Rangiora)
- Gordon MacLeod quote “A strong 2nd half will be driven by Initial stages of 4 new retirement villages coming on-stream, and stronger resale pricing”.

Last financial year H2 result saw a lift of 26% in underlying profit. This brought the full year result up to 16%.

Stronger resale pricing may possibly be a factor this year coming up but I don't see any major difference between the forthcoming H1 and H2. Nothing will be coming online this H1 regarding Auckland's Greenlane, Devonport, and Tropicana sites, nor Melbourne's Brandon Park. All these 4 are underway to varying degrees.

RYM have indicated that the build-completion timing for this financial year will be much the same as last year.