For independent living (approx 42% of Ryman's portfolio) , it's between 60% to 70% of the local house price.
For serviced units (approx 20% of Ryman's portfolio), it's between 45% to 50% of the local house price.
For aged care beds (approx 38% of Ryman's portfolio), I am unsure but believe it to be equal to or less than services units.
I can't see house priced dropping by 30% anytime soon.
Even if they halved, it wouldn't have any real impact.
When ya gotta go, ya gotta go.
You rather conveniently overlook talking about the Melbourne real estate market...seen some reports indicating that's in a pretty grim state
Pretty sad state of affairs when RYM can't sell units in their premier Remuera retirement village which according to some rumors having being built on a former dump site is suffering from land subsidence issues. I believe anecdotal reports of an oversupply of units in Auckland are quite possibly correct which would explain why SUM other company is struggling to get meaningful sales traction with their big Ellerslie and Hobsonville villages. That said RYM are as cunning as a very hungry beagle discounting the heck out of their weekly fees to get units sold off the plans and all the oldies are thinking about is their fixed for life dirt cheap weekly fees and overlook the fact that RYM are "absolutely creaming it" on the sale price of the unit. I think your last statement is far more applicable to OCA care suite units for the (generally) over mid 80's demographic. I still think most people move into other retirement villages for lifestyle choice reasons not through compulsion.
I do love a good debate with you
Last edited by Beagle; 02-11-2018 at 11:24 AM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
You rather conveniently overlook talking about the Melbourne real estate market...seen some reports indicating that's in a pretty grim state ......
Hi Beagle.
I'm not the slightest bit worried about the Melbourne 'downturn'. Melbourne house-price growth, even over the short term, looks much the same as NZ....
Using the chart below (created 2 years ago now) Melbourne house prices would need to drop by over 35% before an average local residence' house wouldn't meet the cost of a RYM independent living apartment there. Over 60% drop for a serviced unit. Given the chart above, I can't see that happening anytime soon when the city only experienced a max 10% drop through the GFC on any given year.
In Australia, the new sport for economists seems to be outdoing each other in calling the size of their housing market declines. Macquarie analysts now say the overall decline could be -10% in nominal prices with Sydney and Melbourne being more like -20% from the peak. At those levels, that would make it the largest housing market retreat in 40 years.
Just as well economists are useless at, well, most things
At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.
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Originally Posted by Vaygor1
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