RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[BlackPeter]

From memory, Ryman use some sort of long-term average to calculate values so not dependent on single year changes in value.

Would not make any change to my statement ... it just would mean that any drop would take longer to get into the books but as well longer to get out again.

[Balance]

Just finished reading a recently issued report by one of the major broking houses in Australasia on NZ's Retirement Village sector.

Nothing really new which have not been discussed and debated ad nauseam here in the Meet, Sum & Oca threads.

Nevertheless, a few key points to note from the report (report goes to their institutional & international client base so bound to have some influence) :

1. Demographics trend continue to provide strong tailwind for long term performance of the sector, population of 75+ to double over next 10 years (250,000 more), and

2. Short term headwinds of increased costs and lower unit resales to adversely impact on profits in 2020/21.

Sensitivities:

1. Increased costs in order of biggest impact - OCA, ARV, RYM, SUM & MET

2. Devaluation of asset values when gearing hits 50% (trigger point for debt concerns) - RYM (14%), SUM (15%), OCA (25%), ARV (26%) & MET (38%).

3. Most highly geared so likely to require capital raising - RYM (40%), SUM (33%), OCA (31%), ARV (27%) & MET (16%).

[tomm]

Just finished reading a recently issued report by one of the major broking houses in Australasia on NZ's Retirement Village sector.

Nothing really new which have not been discussed and debated ad nauseam here in the Meet, Sum & Oca threads.

Nevertheless, a few key points to note from the report (report goes to their institutional & international client base so bound to have some influence) :

1. Demographics trend continue to provide strong tailwind for long term performance of the sector, population of 75+ to double over next 10 years (250,000 more), and

2. Short term headwinds of increased costs and lower unit resales to adversely impact on profits in 2020/21.

Sensitivities:

1. Increased costs in order of biggest impact - OCA, ARV, RYM, SUM & MET

2. Devaluation of asset values when gearing hits 50% (trigger point for debt concerns) - RYM (14%), SUM (15%), OCA (25%), ARV (26%) & MET (38%).

3. Most highly geared so likely to require capital raising - RYM (40%), SUM (33%), OCA (31%), ARV (27%) & MET (16%).

Thanks for the info's mate Look like we will hold at the moment .

[Beagle]

Just finished reading a recently issued report by one of the major broking houses in Australasia on NZ's Retirement Village sector.

Nothing really new which have not been discussed and debated ad nauseam here in the Meet, Sum & Oca threads.

Nevertheless, a few key points to note from the report (report goes to their institutional & international client base so bound to have some influence) :

1. Demographics trend continue to provide strong tailwind for long term performance of the sector, population of 75+ to double over next 10 years (250,000 more), and

2. Short term headwinds of increased costs and lower unit resales to adversely impact on profits in 2020/21.

Sensitivities:

1. Increased costs in order of biggest impact - OCA, ARV, RYM, SUM & MET

2. Devaluation of asset values when gearing hits 50% (trigger point for debt concerns) - RYM (14%), SUM (15%), OCA (25%), ARV (26%) & MET (38%).

3. Most highly geared so likely to require capital raising - RYM (40%), SUM (33%), OCA (31%), ARV (27%) & MET (16%).

So often referred to as the reference standard in this sector but its well worth noting that despite the massive reputation and gold standard pricing on the NZX RYM have the slowest average underlying growth rate in the last 5 years. RYM 14%, MET 15%, ARV 16% and SUM 34%. (OCA haven't been around 5 years).

[winner69]

Koalas must be saved

Might impressive village when they open though

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12329843

[Beagle]

Koalas must be saved

Might impressive village when they open though

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12329843

What about the local lizards and skinks ? Seriously, I think Koala's are very special and its devastating that so many were lost in the massive recent bush fires so if there's any risk to the Koala population RYM should maybe build a Koala sanctuary within their village ?

[winner69]

What about the local lizards and skinks ? Seriously, I think Koala's are very special and its devastating that so many were lost in the massive recent bush fires so if there's any risk to the Koala population RYM should maybe build a Koala sanctuary within their village ?

That would be an attraction in itself

Might add a few thousand to the price of the units .....and off course running the sanctuary covered in the fees eh.

[Beagle]

That would be an attraction in itself

Might add a few thousand to the price of the units .....and off course running the sanctuary covered in the fees eh.

Could even have sessions where dementia patients and other residents get to cuddle a Koala...for a fee of course
Some coffee shop here in Auckland has an attached cuddle a cat operation where people pay $10 to stroke and cuddle cats.

I have been thinking for quite a while there's money in a Fat Beagle Café where I could own a few Beagle's and charge a $10 entry fee and people could enjoy unlimited patting and petting. Maybe Ryman could open such cafés at their villages and make a fortune ? They need some new interesting innovation that they haven't thought of before.

[Cyclical]

Could even have sessions where dementia patients and other residents get to cuddle a Koala...for a fee of course
Some coffee shop here in Auckland has an attached cuddle a cat operation where people pay $10 to stroke and cuddle cats.

I have been thinking for quite a while there's money in a Fat Beagle Café where I could own a few Beagle's and charge a $10 entry fee and people could enjoy unlimited patting and petting. Maybe Ryman could open such cafés at their villages and make a fortune ? They need some new interesting innovation that they haven't thought of before.

Yeah, well it's well know that touch and cuddle is good for the oldies (in fact probably for all of us after the last few weeks). I wonder if Jacinda has some spare time to do a round... Another benefit of your koala sanctuary is that it would be a good driver to get the grand kids to the homes more regularly.

[Gerard]

For those of you that would like more detail, the link below takes you to all the planning application documents for Ryman's Mount Eliza village. On the architectural plans folio are some great artist impressions of what the village will look like in completed form. Certainly an "up market" look and interestingly, there are several "premium" apartments included; floor area up to 250sq/m + balconies + best views. These will no doubt be aimed at the high end potential resident. At least one of the more recent Ryman NZ villages have included premium offerings rather than just the normal "cookie cutter" approach.

P192453-60-70-Kunyung-Road-MOUNT-ELIZA

Resource consent documents and plans of the Karori village can also be found on the Wgtn CC website.

It is anyones guess how retirement village operators will be affected by the economic effects of covid 19. On the one hand, house sales may slow right down (and prices drop) thus making sales of retirement village units also slow down. Any price drop in a surrounding area will be reflected on the unit price (Ryman usually set prices having regard to the house prices in the area around the village). On the other hand, potential residents (often having to make a needs based decision to move to a village) may "meet the market" and buy a retirement unit anyway. As units are often about 2/3's - 3/4 of median house prices, the seller will still free up significant cash. If they have taken a hit on dividend income recently, this may also prove to be an added incentive to downsize and free up cash for replacing "lost" income.