RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[winner69]

Down another $ today, 8% !.

Could we go sub $ 5-00 ?

When overseas funds start selling/exiting it can get brutal ....espwhen they sense trouble / cap raises etc

The love affair has ended after many years .....

[ronaldson]

Ryman have the lowest Deferred Management Fee, 20%. The RV model is built upon rising prices for Villas and OCAs, with the outgoing resident (or, usually, their estate) not sharing in capital gains. But they aren't liable for capital losses either.

Might we be approaching the situation where resales cannot be made at increased prices and may actually need to be at a lower price point, perhaps not even sufficient to pay out the outgoing party? Or, if not quite that low at least below the prior sale price thus " clawing back " some of the DMF from Ryman?

You would think that where the turnover arising from an exit occurs quite quickly, and at least some resales must arise in that situation, that cashflow would/could be negative and the DMF may not even have been able to be fully claimed for a short-dated occupation.

That would start to be scary.

[Lease]

Ryman have the lowest Deferred Management Fee, 20%. The RV model is built upon rising prices for Villas and OCAs, with the outgoing resident (or, usually, their estate) not sharing in capital gains. But they aren't liable for capital losses either.

Might we be approaching the situation where resales cannot be made at increased prices and may actually need to be at a lower price point, perhaps not even sufficient to pay out the outgoing party? Or, if not quite that low at least below the prior sale price thus " clawing back " some of the DMF from Ryman?

You would think that where the turnover arising from an exit occurs quite quickly, and at least some resales must arise in that situation, that cashflow would/could be negative and the DMF may not even have been able to be fully claimed for a short-dated occupation.

That would start to be scary.

Capital raise will solve the problem. RYM never have been capital raise since listing. It's OK to do cap raise if they need.

[Balance]

Capital raise will solve the problem. RYM never have been capital raise since listing. It's OK to do cap raise if they need.

That’s why they are listed - to raise capital if required and of course to facilitate secondary liquidity.

To date, original shareholders have been doing the ‘capital raising’ very successfully - selling down their stakes at ever higher share prices.

[limmy]

When overseas funds start selling/exiting it can get brutal ....espwhen they sense trouble / cap raises etc

The love affair has ended after many years .....

If I remember correctly, there was a time not very long ago, when RYM was heading towards becoming the largest company listed on the NZX by market capitalisation. Does anyone else remember this ?

[iceman]

If I remember correctly, there was a time not very long ago, when RYM was heading towards becoming the largest company listed on the NZX by market capitalisation. Does anyone else remember this ?

Yes some of us do

[BlackPeter]

If I remember correctly, there was a time not very long ago, when RYM was heading towards becoming the largest company listed on the NZX by market capitalisation. Does anyone else remember this ?

Clearly - Ryman used to be hyped up in the lofty heights around and above $15 per share.

However - it works both ways. At current it is in my view well hyped down. Pretty sure in some years people will ask whether anybody still remembers how cheap Ryman was in late 2022.

Just physics ... if the pendulum swings too far into one direction then it comes back and swings too far into the other direction.

[Balance]

Clearly - Ryman used to be hyped up in the lofty heights around and above $15 per share.

However - it works both ways. At current it is in my view well hyped down. Pretty sure in some years people will ask whether anybody still remembers how cheap Ryman was in late 2022.

Just physics ... if the pendulum swings too far into one direction then it comes back and swings too far into the other direction.

Could be gravity in action rather than pendulum swing?

Difference is that Ryman is now loaded up with debt in a down cycle.

Used to be referred to as the jaws of the crocodile closing - property values falling (upper jaw) while costs (especially interest) rising (lower jaw).

All signs point towards capital raising in the offing.

[BlackPeter]

Could be gravity in action rather than pendulum swing?

Difference is that Ryman is now loaded up with debt in a down cycle.

Used to be referred to as the jaws of the crocodile closing - property values falling (upper jaw) while costs (especially interest) rising (lower jaw).

All signs point towards capital raising in the offing.

Lets face it - while the amount of interest bearing credit they have is higher than that of some other retirement villages - it is still only 23.5% of total assets (as per FY22 balance sheet). Not really a big worry, isn't it?

However - if they find that a capital rise is cheaper for them than paying the interest ... what's the biggie? I am sure many shareholders will be happy to chip in ... and hey, other than for some other retirement villages it would be their first CR after IPO.

Agree however that a Cap rise at their lofty SP heights might have made more sense, but I guess this is the thing about the benefit of hindsight ...

[X-men]

capital raising coming soon? anyone has a hint?