RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[winner69]

CEO Umbers always been a man with I’ll fortune

His run of bad luck continues

[LaserEyeKiwi]

wow big shock not. sales and margins being compressed which is normal for property development company this part of the cycle

conserve the cash

Don’t hold or follow the retirement sector closely, but I thought the demand / supply of demographic trends would be the core fundamental driver of sector performance, rather than the traditional housing developer cycle.

Think Bjauck & Snoopy have the reasoning down though, wealthy retiring boomers stuck in their homes at present, unwilling to take a price far below there previous peak values, therefore delaying their move into retirement villages.

I would wonder if there maybe is a big catchup event at some point as they eventually get tired of waiting and accept lower prices.

[Toranaman]

CEO Umbers always been a man with I’ll fortune

His run of bad luck continues

Midas touch!
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/rich...0180214-h0w2yi

[bull....]

Don’t hold or follow the retirement sector closely, but I thought the demand / supply of demographic trends would be the core fundamental driver of sector performance, rather than the traditional housing developer cycle.

Think Bjauck & Snoopy have the reasoning down though, wealthy retiring boomers stuck in their homes at present, unwilling to take a price far below there previous peak values, therefore delaying their move into retirement villages.

I would wonder if there maybe is a big catchup event at some point as they eventually get tired of waiting and accept lower prices.

thats the fundamental problem with some of these people on this forum , they dont get these RV'S make a large chunk of money from property development. demograPHICS is overrated in my opinion on demand perspective

[winner69]

Midas touch!
https://www.afr.com/rear-window/rich...0180214-h0w2yi

Got the sack shortly after that

[DavidB]

Ouch, I've checked the share price performance of Ryman over the last three years. What an extraordinary destroyer of wealth this stock has been in that time if you have held it. From $15.70 a share on 12 March 2021 to $5.11 a share today at lunchtime. That's down 67.5%. That's got to hurt.

I have always viewed all of the retirement villages as first and foremost a play on property development and the real estate market. When house prices are rising the profits via revaluations will roll on in, because the villas, units, apartments, etc they get revalued upwards as well. But when the market turns or stalls they don't.

The fundamentals of the underlying business as a retirement village, rest home, hospital-level care provider, etc., are much less attractive and this has been evident in the financial returns that are published every year. This sector, particularly the rest homes and the hospitals is notoriously difficult to run at a profit, being as it is, largely dependent on Government subsidies. The government is never generous in this regard, more so in the coming years because basically, the Government is broke (thanks Labour).

As for the baby boom being the demographic to drive profits going forward. It's too early for that. About 1/4 to 1/3 of the baby boomers have yet to reach the age of 65, they are still working, well most of them are. None have yet turned 80. So it will be some years yet before that cohort of the population will be ready for retirement village living which in the main attractes those over the age of 75, and particularly 80.

[Toranaman]

Ouch, I've checked the share price performance of Ryman over the last three years. What an extraordinary destroyer of wealth this stock has been in that time if you have held it. From $15.70 a share on 12 March 2021 to $5.11 a share today at lunchtime. That's down 67.5%. That's got to hurt.

I have always viewed all of the retirement villages as first and foremost a play on property development and the real estate market. When house prices are rising the profits via revaluations will roll on in, because the villas, units, apartments, etc they get revalued upwards as well. But when the market turns or stalls they don't.

The fundamentals of the underlying business as a retirement village, rest home, hospital-level care provider, etc., are much less attractive and this has been evident in the financial returns that are published every year. This sector, particularly the rest homes and the hospitals is notoriously difficult to run at a profit, being as it is, largely dependent on Government subsidies. The government is never generous in this regard, more so in the coming years because basically, the Government is broke (thanks Labour).

As for the baby boom being the demographic to drive profits going forward. It's too early for that. About 1/4 to 1/3 of the baby boomers have yet to reach the age of 65, they are still working, well most of them are. None have yet turned 80. So it will be some years yet before that cohort of the population will be ready for retirement village living which in the main attractes those over the age of 75, and particularly 80.

But how come Summerset can perform so well in the same market?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...nits-this-year

[ronaldson]

Shesh. Not good. Bad news. Dont buy.

Buy tower.

Correct Rawz. And don't forget to at least be a fly on the wall at the AGM on Wednesday morning!

[Mr Slothbear]

Got the sack shortly after that

he should get the sack from ryman in my view.

he is not the right fit and his experience isn’t relevant.

that and i have not seen any positive results from him in anything hes done

[Bjauck]

But how come Summerset can perform so well in the same market?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/...nits-this-year

That was a story from August last year. It will be interesting to see if Summerset actually delivers on its forecast from back then.