RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Ggcc]

LOL I'm not biting anymore

Only time will tell who is correct, but I am thinking Summerset will surpass Rymans sp within 5 years.... take into account a possible share split for SUM may occur.

[777]

Dividend gone and RYM up to $12.00.

[minimoke]

Dividend gone and RYM up to $12.00.

Hmm, puts me up about 2,350% (excluding dividends) on this share. I wont be concerned if SUM does half as well for me.

[Vaygor1]

...Irrespective of [FY Ending 31-Mar-2018] result, the Shareprice around June 2019 (about 22 months from now) will be circa $15/share (or equivalent if there is a split). This because RYM's underlying profit for 31-Mar-2019 will be close to $240 million.

The Shareprice figures above of course are subject (as always) to the whim of the market.

Hey Vaygor - $240m profit is an eps of 48 cents

PE of 20 would give a share price of $9.60 ant not your $15

About today’s price - spooky eh

The above written October 2017.
I'm interested in any comments you might have about your comment above Winner.
I think my forecast is nicely on target.

[Beagle]

I agree that $240m is achievable for FY19 which gives 48 cps but where I see the PE as being good value based on historical norms is 23.5 which suggests $11.28 as a target price for RYM. I note brokers average target price is $10.60. http://www.4-traders.com/RYMAN-HEALT...072/consensus/ and average rating is underperform which is what I also think they'll do for the rest of the year from here.

RYM have enjoyed a very strong run recently. Too strong for the fundamental's in my opinion.

OCA (the dark horse of this sector) could do a real bolter this year being on a FY19 estimated PE, (my estimate) of just 10-11 which is too cheap for this sector considering their care reputation which is second to no one including RYM.

With RYM at over $12 you're paying a Rolls Royce forward PE for very early in the FY19 year of over 25...nothing ever goes wrong with Rolls Royce right ?...oh hang on a minute...

[Vaygor1]

....With RYM at over $12 you're paying a Rolls Royce forward PE for very early in the FY19 year of over 25...nothing ever goes wrong with Rolls Royce right ?...oh hang on a minute...

Fair price for RYM at the moment is approx $11.50 so yeah.... about 6-7% overvalued based on 15 years historical SP vs Underlying Profit (UP) analysis... but based on the bright year ahead, no one is paying a Rolls Royce price at the $12.20 mark... just a bit more than history suggests.

RYM will have a boomer this financial year. They have, in my opinion, already stolen some of the current financial year's UP and put it in the announcement for Financial Year End 31-Mar-2018 just to get it near the 15% mark. They can easily afford to.. but, again in my opinion, they have (albeit slightly) contravened a key criterion for defining "Practical Completion' before which UP on new builds can be claimed.

[Beagle]

Fair price for RYM at the moment is approx $11.50 so yeah.... about 6-7% overvalued based on 15 years historical SP vs Underlying Profit (UP) analysis... but based on the bright year ahead, no one is paying a Rolls Royce price at the $12.20 mark... just a bit more than history suggests.

RYM will have a boomer this financial year. They have, in my opinion, already stolen some of the current financial year's UP and put it in the announcement for Financial Year End 31-Mar-2018 just to get it near the 15% mark. They can easily afford to.. but, again in my opinion, they have (albeit slightly) contravened a key criterion for defining "Practical Completion' before which UP on new builds can be claimed.

Agreed. Better to wait till they're trading under fair value in my opinion.

[couta1]

Agreed. Better to wait till they're trading under fair value in my opinion.

Nearly all the stocks on the NZX are currently over cooked bar a few IMO, I'm only buying stocks where I see value over the next 12 months.

[Beagle]

Nearly all the stocks on the NZX are currently over cooked bar a few IMO, I'm only buying stocks where I see value over the next 12 months.

Agreed. RYM have just shed their dividend so there's no logical reason to pay 107% of fair value right at the moment which will most likely lead to frustration as it underperforms in the short run.

I think with the market where it is you are very wise to try and focus on what's best value and likely to appreciate the most in the next year. OCA and TNR two obvious candidates.

[voltage]

Beagle who is TNR