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  1. #3171
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Yoda View Post
    Are we going to breakout this time?
    it seems to be taking off a bit lately and reaching its previous highs. A reasonable profit should see it at $11 or 12 next year ?
    I think the increase in underlying profit for this financial year's H1 result will be mediocre as last year's was.. maybe slightly worse.
    I also think the full year result (ending 31-Mar-2018) will not attain an underlying profit increase of 15%+ which it didn't last financial year either.

    The above due to the fact I can't see them completing enough new developments this financial year on time to deem them practically complete.

    The caveat to the above is that, for some reason, their resales skyrocket to make up for it, either by increased volume or resale price, or both.... or I guess, if they alter their accounting policy and redefine how completed a development must be before it is 'realised' as underlying profit.

    I am a huge supporter of RYM and a very happy holder... have been in for the long term and will continue to hold/accumulate for the long term.

    The smaller the annual increase in underlying profit for this financial year (ending 31-March-2018), the greater the annual increase for the same will be for Full Year ending 31-March-2019 year.

    If I am right, there will be some good buying opportunities post this financial year's half and full year result.

    Irrespective of this year's result, the Shareprice around June 2019 (about 22 months from now) will be circa $15/share (or equivalent if there is a split). This because RYM's underlying profit for 31-Mar-2019 will be close to $240 million.

    The Shareprice figures above of course are subject (as always) to the whim of the market.
    Last edited by Vaygor1; 19-10-2017 at 05:35 PM.

  2. #3172
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Hey Vaygor - $240m profit is an eps of 48 cents

    PE of 20 would give a share price of $9.60 ant not your $15

    About today’s price - spooky eh
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  3. #3173
    The past is practise. Vaygor1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Hey Vaygor - $240m profit is an eps of 48 cents

    PE of 20 would give a share price of $9.60 ant not your $15

    About today’s price - spooky eh
    Hi Winner.

    Not sure if that is an apples-for-apples comparison.

    Published eps uses earnings per share under IFRS calc methods, not underlying Profit.

    ie For underlying profit, the must recent audited full year result was $184 million or 35.6 cents/share.
    By my calcs a fair Shareprice for this underlying Profit is $10.26 so right now the share is a bit cheaper than it has historically been using this measure... this is because market sentiment prevails due to perceived slow-down in RYM growth.

    Using the current latest audited Underlying Profit of 35.6 cents/share and utilising your method with a PE of 20 produces a SP of $7.12 ... considerably lower than it is at present.

    Value your input as always, and happy to be corrected.

  4. #3174
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Vaygor1 View Post
    Hi Winner.

    Not sure if that is an apples-for-apples comparison.

    Published eps uses earnings per share under IFRS calc methods, not underlying Profit.

    ie For underlying profit, the must recent audited full year result was $184 million or 35.6 cents/share.
    By my calcs a fair Shareprice for this underlying Profit is $10.26 so right now the share is a bit cheaper than it has historically been using this measure... this is because market sentiment prevails due to perceived slow-down in RYM growth.

    Using the current latest audited Underlying Profit of 35.6 cents/share and utilising your method with a PE of 20 produces a SP of $7.12 ... considerably lower than it is at present.

    Value your input as always, and happy to be corrected.
    I think I think you just confirmed what I was implying in that RYM’s PE whether you use real or underlying profits will be lower in 2019 than what it is currently.

    To what degree goodness knows and I only used 20 as a reasonable number compared to the current 27 ......and it just happened to give a value of $9.60
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #3175
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Hi Vaygor1 - Got chatting to Couta1 about RYM yesterday and we both agree they're going to have a big Fy19 BUT by my estimations RYM and SUM will have very similar underlying EPS in the current year. The only reason RYM is trading higher than SUM is its long standing reputation. The longer SUM keep growing earnings faster than RYM, (CAGR of 48% for 5 years is very impressive and I'm expecting similar this year) and the more SUM refine their care offer which they're working hard on the more I expect the gap in their relative SP's to close.

    Fact is SUM have taken a serious haircut to their forward PE whereas RYM haven't over the last 12 months or so.
    Much as I have tremendous respect for RYM's outstanding long term track record I see more potential with SUM. I wouldn't discount the possibility of some relative PE contraction between these two as SUM keeps piling on the runs either.
    SUM will find support SUM day soon
    Last edited by Beagle; 20-10-2017 at 02:53 PM.
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  6. #3176
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    Hey winner, just a minute or so ago the Sum price was exactly 50% of the Ryman price, my ratio theory has stood the test of time ,regardless of whether it should or not.

  7. #3177
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Hey winner, just a minute or so ago the Sum price was exactly 50% of the Ryman price, my ratio theory has stood the test of time ,regardless of whether it should or not.
    There are some things that are just more than a coincidence, just maybe

    Good theory ..tested over time
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  8. #3178
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Hey winner, just a minute or so ago the Sum price was exactly 50% of the Ryman price, my ratio theory has stood the test of time ,regardless of whether it should or not.
    I thought your ratio went in a band something from 55% to about 66%. I think this is the lowest its ever been, (could be wrong). Either way seems pretty strange seeing as both companies are forecast to have ostensibly the same underlying eps this year and SUM are growing considerably faster. Good opportunity to switch anyone ?
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

  9. #3179
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beagle View Post
    I thought your ratio went in a band something from 55% to about 66%. I think this is the lowest its ever been, (could be wrong). Either way seems pretty strange seeing as both companies are forecast to have ostensibly the same underlying eps this year and SUM are growing considerably faster. Good opportunity to switch anyone ?
    My theory put forward in 2013 was that Ryman was roughly worth double that of Sum, winners chart showed it sat within a certain range most of the time, reversion to the mean can be a powerful thing.

  10. #3180
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    My theory put forward in 2013 was that Ryman was roughly worth double that of Sum, winners chart showed it sat within a certain range most of the time, reversion to the mean can be a powerful thing.
    Interesting theory for 2013. Maybe investors haven't noticed SUM has been growing annual underlying earnings at 48% per annum average and RYM at about 15% ? Over time I would have thought on a fundamental basis this gap should close and although they might have been worth double at one point the current situation looks rather illogical to me. Oh well, it is what it is...
    Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.
    Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine

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