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  1. #3616
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    Patient Panda...thankyou...outstanding wisdom indeed.

  2. #3617
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    property prices dropped again in jan in syd , mel looked forward to see how the aus village operators are handling this
    bull

  3. #3618
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    property prices dropped again in jan in syd , mel looked forward to see how the aus village operators are handling this
    Yes, it's a good thing that RYM don't have any Sydney villages.

  4. #3619
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    Quote Originally Posted by Patient Panda View Post
    Great, looks like RYM will be able to pick up some more land at a discount for future developments
    Yeah, lets not worry that they overpaid for all their existing Melbourne land and have locked themselves into some very expensive developments...no worries.
    Last edited by Beagle; 06-02-2019 at 01:25 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  5. #3620
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    fwiw Aveo Group (AOG.ASX) has just announced their HY result and it's not pretty https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...asx-2A1132236/
    I think the headwind in the OZ property market is way stronger than over here so I have sold all my remaining RYM shares at $11 last week.

  6. #3621
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    Quote Originally Posted by silu View Post
    fwiw Aveo Group (AOG.ASX) has just announced their HY result and it's not pretty https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...asx-2A1132236/
    I think the headwind in the OZ property market is way stronger than over here so I have sold all my remaining RYM shares at $11 last week.
    not pretty , key takeaway was this settlements are taking longer as people are having trouble selling there homes. just goes to show what would happen here if property fell over
    bull

  7. #3622
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Absolutely. Better to invest in retirement places where people need to pay less to buy in and have less discretion over their decision (needs based vs nice to have).

    People buy into a Ryman unit with the view "why not afford this luxury if they can"? However - if they can't (e.g. due to a drop in property prices, they can wait.

    People who become dependant on care can't wait ... they would buy into an OCA care suite because they need the care - they don't have the luxury to wait.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  8. #3623
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Absolutely. Better to invest in retirement places where people need to pay less to buy in and have less discretion over their decision (needs based vs nice to have).

    People buy into a Ryman unit with the view "why not afford this luxury if they can"? However - if they can't (e.g. due to a drop in property prices, they can wait.

    People who become dependant on care can't wait ... they would buy into an OCA care suite because they need the care - they don't have the luxury to wait.
    ^^^^ This.
    Things are really ugly in Australia. The pace of declines in Melbourne and Sydney is accelerating as we headed into early 2019 with prices down 1.3% (annual rate 15.6%) in January 2019 much faster than monthly declines in late 2018. RYM a SELL in my view.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  9. #3624
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    At the half year result (to Sept 30) Ryman said house prices in Melbourne would have to fall 38% in the respective areas that Ryman is selling a 2 bedroom independant unit in, before a purchaser would not realize and surplus cash in the transaction. For a serviced unit (needs based) the drop would to be greater than 50%. (see Ryman presentation slide 38). In addition, RYM are sitting on a total $215m of unconditional pre sales but not yet booked to P & L. At this stage units built and for sale in Melbourne is a very small proportion of total stock. Auckland house prices are steady, and provincial NZ prices have gone up in the last year (Hawkes Bay for instance - see stuff article this morning). Ryman have experienced house price deflation (GFC) before and the net result was a slow down in the rate of their underlying profit increase to 5% (2009), but still a record result. At $14 Ryman's share price was I think well ahead of results. At <$11 share price, moderate house price deflation v increasing demand from a growing demographic, share price value is more debatable.
    Last edited by Gerard; 13-02-2019 at 01:06 PM.

  10. #3625
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    Underlying PE at $11 is still in the early 20's which in my opinion is too high for their slowing underlying growth rate for this part of the housing cycle.
    Forward PE of ~ 23 for RYM, ~ 15 for SUM ~14 for ARV or ~ 11 for OCA...you pays your money and takes your chances.
    I've always been a value guy so will stick with what I know works for me.
    Last edited by Beagle; 13-02-2019 at 12:50 PM.
    No butts, hold no mutts, (unless they're the furry variety).

  11. #3626
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Default Ryman presentation in Christchurch - March 12, 6pm

    NZSA retail shareholders presentation at "the Papanui" in Christchurch: Ryman Healthcare is one of the presenters:

    https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...l=1#post749287

    As per link - if you want to join the dinner after the presentations, please RSVP by March 8th.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  12. #3627
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    Ryman scaling back its proposed Mt Eliza village in Victoria.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12209893

    It's a great location and will be a shame if it can't be properly utilised.

  13. #3628
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    Might be a stupid question but if Ryman see a significant amount of growth in Australia in the years ahead, why not dual list here and the ASX? Wouldnt that get more eyes on the company? I really don't know if the compliance cost is exorbitant and therefore prohibitive? I'd say making an NZ company more Australian would only help in the West island?

  14. #3629
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    Quote Originally Posted by dabsman View Post
    Might be a stupid question but if Ryman see a significant amount of growth in Australia in the years ahead, why not dual list here and the ASX? Wouldnt that get more eyes on the company? I really don't know if the compliance cost is exorbitant and therefore prohibitive? I'd say making an NZ company more Australian would only help in the West island?
    Retirement operators are a bit on the nose as investments in Oz these days. Best to stay off their boards for the present, I would think.

  15. #3630
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    Down 3.8% today, retirement sector unloved atm with more to come with this winters "winter of discontent " !!

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