RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[h2so4]

Depends on your comparison timeframe. Couple of people on here about 4 years ago went out on a limb and called that there was going to be a number of years of underperformance, because of a significant period of outperformance before that. They were right but I no longer hold that view. They listed in 1999 at $1.35 and have had a 5:1 share split, so adjusted IPO price is 27 cents. 19 years later they are >$12. This is more than 44 times your money so over the lifetime of the company they have dramatically outperformed.

If one looks out a decade I think on the balance of probabilities they will beat the market. Currently they're about $1 north of where I see good value, so are simply fair value in my view.

Fair value with a fantastic brand, great business model, excellent management and very strong demographic tailwinds = substantial wealth creation in the years ahead provided the politicians don't sabotage this sector.

10 years is a long timeframe for a beagle...LOL

[Ggcc]

https://www.noted.co.nz/money/proper...ement-village/

[dabsman]

From the way this is trading there must be big expectations on not only this year but big increases in revenues year on year. I'm still hoping on a share split this year...

[Patient Panda]

From the way this is trading there must be big expectations on not only this year but big increases in revenues year on year. I'm still hoping on a share split this year...

Yes these expectations are well founded. The next couple of years will see their biggest ever villages come to fruition. I am sure we will get an average of 15% eps growth at a minimum. Divi payout ratio only 22% or so IIRC so will be expecting an increase to divi as well.

esit; its also only around $1 more than where I see good buying value so hardly overvalued too much. There are many others boasting much more stretched multiples.

[dabsman]

Yes these expectations are well founded. The next couple of years will see their biggest ever villages come to fruition. I am sure we will get an average of 15% eps growth at a minimum. Divi payout ratio only 22% or so IIRC so will be expecting an increase to divi as well.

esit; its also only around $1 more than where I see good buying value so hardly overvalued too much. There are many others boasting much more stretched multiples.

Yeah I dont see it being overvalued - I see it as a big beast getting into its stride. Just think about embedded value and sales numbers and in time resales when these sites in Aussie come online? By then they will have confidence in the model over there and secured 10 more sites at least and maybe into different states as well. A juggernaut!

[Patient Panda]

Yes and importantly resident satisfaction at all time high and almost zero empty units.

RYM comprises 70% of my listed equities so not hard to see I’m a believer

[Timesurfer]

Off to a rocky start on this one ryman-healthcare-paid-28m-for-victoria-universitys-karori-campus

[Ggcc]

Off to a rocky start on this one ryman-healthcare-paid-28m-for-victoria-universitys-karori-campus

Wow paying more than market value........ They must have done the figures to justify that sort of price?

[macduffy]

Wow paying more than market value........ They must have done the figures to justify that sort of price?

I'm sure they have. But I doubt that there was any accurate way to set a Rateable Value for the site, given it's prior use and subsequent history. A classic case of value being what a willing buyer will pay for it.

[Baa_Baa]

I'm sure they have. But I doubt that there was any accurate way to set a Rateable Value for the site, given it's prior use and subsequent history. A classic case of value being what a willing buyer will pay for it.

Precisely. Will be interesting to see what they do with it, such a large site right in the middle of Karori. More interesting may be the reaction of the nimby's, especially if a Bob Scott monstrosity is the plan. At least it won't have a busy railway line running right past it.