RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[TheBossMan]

technical analysis?!! lol. That suggests you don't understand the meaning of valuation based on a residual earnings model, which is intrinsic to fundamental analysis.

[Snow Leopard]

Told you he was touchy

r
PT

[Placebo]

[:0]



[xx(]

[TheBossMan]

Seems like you have nothing to add to a healthy discussion on a company's prospects and the underlying security valuation. You'd rather keep focussing on people and their intentions (as perceived by you). I stand by my valuation and when it touches $8 soon, I'm sure you'd remember all the "ramping".

And where is your disclosure in all these? Are you someone who was sitting on the fence thinking Ryman's SP would go down so that you can buy? Or did you sell too early and regretting it now? Maybe you never understood Ryman's business model and growth drivers and instead chose to waste time picking on other posters who dared to contribute.

I challenge you to prove my analysis is wrong. Are you good enough to do it?

[TheBossMan]

$6.40 now...not bad for a stock on NZX which was only $5 pre-Xmas.

[Snow Leopard]

TheBoss, I have overcome a Tigers natural instinct of continuing to play with his prey.
Thank you for your analysis of this company over the last few pages, it is appreciated and I have little quarrel with it.
I regard Ryman as an excellent company with good forward prospects and it is the second biggest holding in my long-term portfolio, Mainfreight being the largest.

Now please relax and enjoy the forum

regards
Paper Tiger

Disc: I am being incredibly nice here.

[Placebo]

Boss: Please take a chill pill. As PT has explained my position on RYM and the effect my comments have on the share price preclude me commenting. However, I have read your analysis and though a little optimistic I too see this as a long-term growth stock.

Nobody is attacking you, it is all a bit of fun. Try to relax. Go home and kick the cat.

Note to the gods of share price movement: O wise ones please accept that this comment, though on the RYM thread, is not a comment on RYM and is merely to smooth the ruffled feathers of the Boss, who is clearly not a ramper . And anyway, as we all know, the reasons prices go up and down have nothing to do with what we think or fundamentals of a company. They are a product of complex factors best explained via Chaos Theory.

[Snow Leopard]

quote:originally posted by Placebo
Go home and kick the cat

If he does, no more Mr Nice Guy

[Placebo]

At the risk of driving down the share price I make the following observation.

Forsyth Barr has revised its valuation upward, after reviewing its assumption on average unit sales per annum. As attached:

quote:Key Points

Ø We have increased our long-term assumption of annual New Sales from 200 units to 250 units.

Ø This change in assumption has a significant impact upon our RYM valuation as New Sales are a key driver of management fees and resales.

Ø Our revised valuation is $6.60 and in view of the valuation gap and robust nature of the RYM business model, we have maintained our BUY recommendation

So not quite as bullish as The Boss, but bullish nonetheless

[TheBossMan]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Forsyth Barr has revised its valuation upward, after reviewing its assumption on average unit sales per annum. As attached:

quote:Key Points

Ø We have increased our long-term assumption of annual New Sales from 200 units to 250 units.

Ø This change in assumption has a significant impact upon our RYM valuation as New Sales are a key driver of management fees and resales.

Ø Our revised valuation is $6.60 and in view of the valuation gap and robust nature of the RYM business model, we have maintained our BUY recommendation

So not quite as bullish as The Boss, but bullish nonetheless

My valuation also assumed new sales of 250 units, which is not overly optimistic, considering Ryman's record, market demands, land bank, pace of development, availability of funds, and most importantly in-house architects and construction engineers.

Forsyth Barr is projecting $6.60 over what horizon? My valuation of $8.30 was for a five-year projection, and on very realistic figures. My gut feel is it is a $10 company, but I dont have any numbers to back it up. Assuming a negative growth in NZ property sector, I expect a dip in the share price next year, when the properties are re-valued.