RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[winner69]

My concern is the effect a declinig SP will have on SUM, who although having a far more focused approach may get tarred with the same brush if the sector is perceived too no longer be flavour of the decade.
Incredible as it may seem, there's growth stocks on a 2015 PE of less than 10, HNZ and AIR are two that spring to mind.

No doubt SUM will be affected but not to the same extent.

PE on last years earnings (underlying) is over 30. Even at $28m profit this year PE is still at 27 odd (current price). Possibility that even SUMs PR will revert back to 20 odd

Watch those charts ... esp the 100MA or the 200MA squiggly lines

[percy]

Agreed, although honestly I doubt they'll be able to meet their own target of 15% growth in the medium term. The collapse of the Australian motor vehicle industry and all the related component manufacturers and the downstream effect of that on the south Australian economy and Melbourne in particular is something I believe many people including Ryman are underestimating. Add in the slowdown in China and the effect on Australia's mining industry and the Australian $50 billion dollar deficit and you have the perfect storm. That said if one is inclined too try and expand in Australia it almost beggars belief why they didn't choose a warmer state...I would have thought it would be completly obvious that people want to retire somewhere warm and that Queensland would have been the obvious choice. While they're trying to expand over there and using all their best staff to do so are they losing focus in N.Z. ?
My concern is the effect a declinig SP will have on SUM, who although having a far more focused approach may get tarred with the same brush if the sector is perceived too no longer be flavour of the decade.
Incredible as it may seem, there's growth stocks on a 2015 PE of less than 10, HNZ and AIR are two that spring to mind.

Most people who have a house in this area,would be able to sell it,have a couple of world trips,buy a couple of new Mercs,a Ryman unit and still have plenty left over.
Again we must say "well done Ryman,you have done it again."

[troyvdh]

Dear Percy..good point...and I for one appreciate your admiration for what a certain paint manufacturer (British paints ?)

However can we agree that the fortunes of all retirement companies are linked with the health of the NZ residential property market ?.

I was going to say "at the end of the day" but could not stomach it.

cheers.

[percy]

Dear Percy..good point...and I for one appreciate your admiration for what a certain paint manufacturer (British paints ?)

However can we agree that the fortunes of all retirement companies are linked with the health of the NZ residential property market ?.

I was going to say "at the end of the day" but could not stomach it.

cheers.

"At the dawning of a new day" when Nanna needs to go into a retirement home,she needs to go now!! Nanna's health,safety,security has nothing what so ever to do with the state of the property market.
Craigs and other brokers tried to link retirement villages fortunes to residential property market without success a number of years ago.Any new attempt will fail too.
Just think when Nanna needs to go,she needs to go now !!!! In a lot of cases she is living alone,just had a fall, or something,family live out of town,are worried, and need to act straight away.
This was recently brought home to me by my elder brother who lives in Hobart.He had some bad health last year,worried his wife will not be able to manage their property should anything happen to him.He is looking to move them into a village.He is a retired property valuer.His comments were " property is very hard to sell in Hobart at present,we will have to meet the market."

[winner69]

Dear Percy..good point...and I for one appreciate your admiration for what a certain paint manufacturer (British paints ?)

However can we agree that the fortunes of all retirement companies are linked with the health of the NZ residential property market ?.

I was going to say "at the end of the day" but could not stomach it.

cheers.

McCains is you've done it again

British Paints was "Trust British Paints Sure Can" ......must be embarrassing for them that dirty Rolf made that jingle famous. Trust Rolf Sure Can .... Jake the Peg and Tie Me Kangaroo Down Sport etc etc all take on a new meaning

[troyvdh]

Gee Percy ..that was/is a good post.My father resides in a Bupa establishment.
What you are saying is surely not wrong.....and no offence or what ever..intended....at all...and yes you are correct..when Oma or Opa need to go ...then they need to go..no question....but surely Retirement home providers can only flourish if folk can afford to buy...Am I wrong...

cheers

[troyvdh]

Dear Winner ...I apologise...I understand now why you are a legend...cheers......(I hate that)

[percy]

Gee Percy ..that was/is a good post.My father resides in a Bupa establishment.
What you are saying is surely not wrong.....and no offence or what ever..intended....at all...and yes you are correct..when Oma or Opa need to go ...then they need to go..no question....but surely Retirement home providers can only flourish if folk can afford to buy...Am I wrong...

cheers

Right here goes.Our house has a rateable value of approx $560,000.I have no idea what it would sell for.I guess somewhere between $500,000 and $600,000. I think our house is about NZ average value.Without checking I expect we could get a very nice unit in most NZ retirement villages for about $350,000 to $450,000. Enough left over to buy a few more Heartland shares.!!!
I will add the fact there are a great deal of New Zealanders who have no mortgage on their property,so there is no shortage of people who can afford to go into a retirement village.

[winner69]

Dear Winner ...I apologise...I understand now why you are a legend...cheers......(I hate that)

and you will be guru when RYM do a share split again .... and we will recall yes Troy told us that

[percy]

McCains is you've done it again

British Paints was "Trust British Paints Sure Can" ......must be embarrassing for them that dirty Rolf made that jingle famous. Trust Rolf Sure Can .... Jake the Peg and Tie Me Kangaroo Down Sport etc etc all take on a new meaning

Life is very hard.Adjusting to one's heroes having feet of clay.I went to a Rolf Harris concert as a boy.Thought he was great.So I am very disappointed in him.
Worse, was I always wanted to be like Rock Hudson ,until he came out of the closet !!!!