RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[Beagle]

I'll be with you mate when the time is right. Buffett was right, best of breed.

[Vaygor1]

Vaygor, to me those 3 points are the most important ones (though is your 2009 point meant to be for 2008?). They represent the points when Ryman shareprice is extremely under/over valued.

Times when you should be buying to get excessive above average returns or selling (or not buying) to lock in excessive returns previously made.
…….

Totally agree.
What is interesting is that the line of best fit with those 3 years ('06, '09, & '13) included, is practically identical to the line of best fit with all 3 years removed. This fact helps me to gain a bit more confidence in the trendline.

Pretty sure I have the 2009 point correct, if you did . Got the share price for each year from your original linear plot here...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post511046

And I took the Underlying Profit/share from this chart here...
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...l=1#post511414
by dividing each year's figure by 500,000,000 shares.

Hence raw data table is:

Attachment 6354

There may be a slight anomaly in the 2009 year (and all the other years for that matter) as your share price data was dated January of each year. RYM super-low best buy share price during my main buying period was around late 2008. I picked up a lot of shares in very late Nov 2008 for a great buy of $1.38 but this was not quite the lowest price reached around that time (which was about $1.24 if I recall correctly)…so your 2009 figure could be more relevant to 2008.

Incidentally, I used the RYM trendline formula for Summerset 31-Dec-2013 Annual Report figures just for curiosity.
SUM U-lying value $22,154,000, No. of shares 216,543,091. Plug them in and I get a Shareprice of $2.368 and that figure drops to $2.355 if you take the extra one million odd shares issued since then. Only about 5 months before the Year-End 31-Dec-2014 report is out so current share price of $2.64 looks about right at the minute (according to this method) if you assume their under-lying profit will increase by 16% this financial year. Bit dangerous to use this analysis, RYM and SUM a bit different in business model and scale from each other.

Come back to me if you think I need to readjust a figure or two in my log/log plot.

[winner69]

Vaygor,

re using the formula for Summerset. Without really thinking it through wouldn't using the same slope imply that SUM should be valued on same long term multiple as RYM?

Maybe a good enough assumption to make and of course not enough history to test. But within NG's exciting news may be SUM should have steeper line!

Interesting though

[Beagle]

RYM has earned the respect of the market over a long, long period of time with their consistent EPS growth and market leading efficiencies with construction and even leaving SUM's questionable governance standards aside as a separate issue, in my view Ryman should command the respect of a decent PE premium to SUM.
I have SUM on a 2014 forecast of 8.4 cents EPS and feel a fair PE for them is at absolute most 25 = $2.10 BUT, if they're worth a PE of 25 I reckon Rym is worth a PE of 30.
Problem comes when you look at the projected average growth rate of RYM I don't think a PE of 30 is appropriate so maybe 25 for Ryman and 20 for SUM which sheets SUM's fair value back to $1.68 !!!!

[winner69]

Jeez Roger, SUM at anything less than $1.90 is 50% off it's all time high.

Lets hope you wrong with your forecast else here will be many sorry people

[Beagle]

Selling most of my holding at $3.58 a few months back is looking like the best decision of the year for me
They be okay though, there's a broker forecast out there at $4.50 so everyone has this wrong and the broker is bang on the money, right

[couta1]

Hey come on guys go easy on the down ramping and throwing out these loose figures like $1.68 for Sum, a lot of people are hurting at the moment and I'm not just talking about myself(Yes I still sleep at night) Enjoy your success with timing it right but mix your comments with a bit of compassion and constraint please,cheers

[percy]

Hey come on guys go easy on the down ramping and throwing out these loose figures like $1.68 for Sum, a lot of people are hurting at the moment and I'm not just talking about myself(Yes I still sleep at night) Enjoy your success with timing it right but mix your comments with a bit of compassion and constraint please,cheers

Markets are devoid of any feelings.
They overshoot,undershoot and go their own way.
They can stay wrong for a long time.
What we say and do will have very little, if any affect on the NZ index.
What I do when things look awful is look at RYM and SUM villages,and say to myself would I like to live here? If you think no,you sell,if you think yes,you know you are right! Easy!But wait,"It really works."!!!

[couta1]

Markets are devoid of any feelings.
They overshoot,undershoot and go their own way.
They can stay wrong for a long time.
What we say and do will have very little, if any affect on the NZ index.
What I do when things look awful is look at RYM and SUM villages,and say to myself would I like to live here? If you think no,you sell,if you think yes,you know you are right! Easy!But wait,"It really works."!!!

My post was not aimed at the market or with any thought of having any influence on the market I just feel for other members of the forum who are suffering at the moment and I don't think stirring and making too light of things is good for those toughing it out currently. I have no problem with holding Sum or Rym at a large paper loss as I work in their villages frequently but others don't have the luxury of that coalface experience and the comfort that comes with it if you get my drift.

[percy]

My post was not aimed at the market or with any thought of having any influence on the market I just feel for other members of the forum who are suffering at the moment and I don't think stirring and making too light of things is good for those toughing it out currently. I have no problem with holding Sum or Rym at a large paper loss as I work in their villages frequently but others don't have the luxury of that coalface experience and the comfort that comes with it if you get my drift.

This is a forum.You get the good,the bad and the ugly.
I usually make up my own mind on shares I buy by trying to do as much research as I can.Then if the company surprises on the upside I buy more.If they surprise me,with something I do not like, I sell,whether at a profit or not does not worry me.I am gone.
On sharetrader sometimes it pays not to listen to "the noise".There are a lot of threads I seldom read,and a lot of posters I do not bother to read either>!!!!