RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[axe]

Attended this evenings Fisher's Funds Wellington Roadshow. A very general presentation overall but Ryman did get a very special mention. In a good light too.

[Goldstein]

What I do when things look awful is look at RYM and SUM villages,and say to myself would I like to live here? If you think no,you sell,if you think yes,you know you are right! Easy!But wait,"It really works."!!!

Percy, I don't agree.

RYM are obviously doing something right, but their villages are quite frankly hideous. I drive past the monolithic RYM building in Orewa most days and I can't say it has what you would call street appeal. To call it a retirement village seems a stretch to me, and to name it after an artist a rather poor joke.

There's clearly a different thrust between SUM and RYM. I would suggest that RYM look after their shareholders while SUM look after their residents.

[Vaygor1]

Vaygor,

re using the formula for Summerset. Without really thinking it through wouldn't using the same slope imply that SUM should be valued on same long term multiple as RYM?

Maybe a good enough assumption to make and of course not enough history to test. But within NG's exciting news may be SUM should have steeper line!

Interesting though

Depends on how far out you mean by long term.
Remember the slope is not linear. It only looks linear because it is on a log/log scale.

In plotting the identical log/log trendline on a linear graph, it comes out as shown below in blue, which doesn't appear too far off linear to the naked eye. Trouble is us humans have difficulty intuitively detecting a change in slope unless it is reasonably pronounced and sudden. If you put your cheek near the screen and look along the blue line, the curve is a lot more apparent than when looking at it as one normally does from front on.

But if the blue-line slope was constant and remained at the same slope as it was when the underlying profit was in the 2 cents/share to the 6 cents/share vicinity, then you end up with the red line.

Note when underlying value is $0.66/share… this analysis (used as 1 amongst other methods) may help a willing seller decide that a hypothetical current market price of say $15 was too low, and patiently wait for the market to correct to $20

Just where SUM might sit on the blue curve is quite easy to calculate (I did it last post) but this relies on the pretty big assumption that SUM's curve is identical to RYM's.

Attachment 6358

Strange as it may seem, your line of best fit originally posted (after doing all this) now appears it might be incorrect, not because of it's slope, but because it is straight.

[Bjauck]

Percy, I don't agree.

RYM are obviously doing something right, but their villages are quite frankly hideous. I drive past the monolithic RYM building in Orewa most days and I can't say it has what you would call street appeal. To call it a retirement village seems a stretch to me, and to name it after an artist a rather poor joke.

There's clearly a different thrust between SUM and RYM. I would suggest that RYM look after their shareholders while SUM look after their residents.

We live in a ex-British country in Polynesia named after a Netherlands province with a capital named after a War Duke. If the buildings are dry, well-made and with good facilities, then the residents are doing better than most of us. SUM and RYM need to provide services with appeal to both residents and investors. Is Summerset a play on Somerset the bucolic English county? or a play on Somerset Maugham, the English author? A certain Norah Barlow coincidentally did very well from her time with SUM...

[percy]

Percy, I don't agree.

RYM are obviously doing something right, but their villages are quite frankly hideous. I drive past the monolithic RYM building in Orewa most days and I can't say it has what you would call street appeal. To call it a retirement village seems a stretch to me, and to name it after an artist a rather poor joke.

There's clearly a different thrust between SUM and RYM. I would suggest that RYM look after their shareholders while SUM look after their residents.

We agree on RYM's Orewa.
I have visited RYM villages in ChCh.I would live in Beckenham Courts,Ngio Marsh, Margaret Stoddart,and Anthony Wilding.Diana Isaac village does not appeal to me.
I would prefer SUM village in Nelson to RYM's.

[Harvey Specter]

I understand they have started work in relation to the Birkenhead site. Will see if I can find more details tonight.

https://www.google.co.nz/maps/place/...9eda0a505a4a6f

[Vaygor1]

Hi Winner.

From my last post it occurred to me that I can map this trendline of Underlying Value (UV) onto your EPS chart.

By lining up both the 2002 UV (2 cents/share) & 2014 UV (24 cents/share) points physically onto the corresponding 2002 & 2014 EPS points on your chart on the x-axis only (as the EPS and corresponding UV for each year were 'snapped' at the same time)…. and also lining up the share price on the y-axis I get the following:

Attachment 6360

Assuming this UV to EPS transform is valid, which it might not be (blue line still 'looks' a bit low to me), your line-of-best-fit is about as good as it can get really, given its linear.

You can see that for an EPS of 45 cents/share, the linear red line equates this to a rational-market share price of just under $7/share where the blue line gives an answer of about $7.50.

Going the other way, a rational-market price of $8 a share means an EPS of about 55c for the red line and 47c for the blue line. Enough to make a difference for some on their buy/sell decisions I suppose.

If you need to get from Hammersmith to Covent Garden, I would catch the blue line.

C'mon Everton!

[winner69]

RYM at 722 at end of this week ..... continuing its steady slide down from highs that were in overvalued territory.

Updated channel chart below. Has just broken the bottom channel line. Some would say bad news as support broken and anything could happen, A short term trader might say what the heck and trade the channel and make 10% on the rise back to the upper channel line ....before it starts it downtrend again.

You will see I have extended the channel lines out to sub 7 buck territory but fully expect to update with the scale starting with a 5 or if it overshoots on the downside and goes to a PE of 12 or something maybe even a 4 in front of the price

When will it stop going down ..... no idea .....only the squiggly line will tell me when

[couta1]

Keep playing those squiggly line games there winner, my squiggly line gutometer tells me she will hit double digits in a couple of years unless of course they do a share split in the interim period, you might have to extend that upper channel line in anticipation aye

[winner69]

Keep playing those squiggly line games there winner, my squiggly line gutometer tells me she will hit double digits in a couple of years unless of course they do a share split in the interim period, you might have to extend that upper channel line in anticipation aye

I agree couta. In a year or 2 RYM will be 10 bucks and probably even more

Great return is 5 bucks to 10 bucks - think it could be doubling your money.

Best part is that at 5 bucks I get 60% more shares than I had when I sold out above 8 bucks

That's the plan anyway and I patient