RYM - Ryman Healthcare

[percy]

Ryman is perhaps the only one that actually makes some of its money from the day to day operation of its villages and to that extent is a little more insulated from a sudden down-draft in revaluations that the others rely on for most of their profit.

No debate about the tailwinds or lack of demand for services, debate for me centres on whether that's already fully reflected in the SP with these lofty 30+ PE's or perhaps still a little over-cooked ?
Priced for absolute perfection and what if there's some chink in the perfection story just around the corner...like Friday ?
Retail Office wharehouse priced around 11-13 PE and divvy yield's 6-7 times this sector.

No problem with the long term fundamentals and no problem buying into the tailwind story if your investment horizon is 20-30 years it doesn't matter if you pay a PE of 30+, long term growth will see you right in the long term but what if one decides one wants to sell in 2-3 years and PE's contract with an increase in interest rates and lower resale margins being achieved by retirement players with slower growth in house prices / declines in same perhaps ?
Look what's happened to SUM's SP when they suddenly have a year of no or negative EPS growth...or was that just Norah shooting the company in the foot ?
I'm happy to wait to see where the perfection story starts to develop a flaw or three

I guess it is all a matter of timing.
I brought into RYM at about $2.07 and progressively sold down,as the market over shot.I am left with a holding that owes me nothing,however I am again looking to add to our holding,as I think the market has under valued them recently.The sp is now above both the 50 day and the 200 day EMA,which signals a buy to me.
Much the same with SUM, although not a free ride, I think av cost down to about 35 cents per share.Until SUM's share price goes above both the 50 day and 200 day EMA I am not buying more.

[longy]

I guess it is all a matter of timing.
I brought into RYM at about $2.07 and progressively sold down,as the market over shot.I am left with a holding that owes me nothing,however I am again looking to add to our holding,as I think the market has under valued them recently.The sp is now above both the 50 day and the 200 day EMA,which signals a buy to me.
Much the same with SUM, although not a free ride, I think av cost down to about 35 cents per share.Until SUM's share price goes above both the 50 day and 200 day EMA I am not buying more.

That sounds good to me that the SP is above the EMA at current... so out of interest when do you sell? I have sold out completely but just got back in yesterday.

[percy]

That sounds good to me that the SP is above the EMA at current... so out of interest when do you sell? I have sold out completely but just got back in yesterday.

The best advice on timing buying and selling has been given by KW.
Go to Forum,then Investment Strategies,then Using TA to time entries and exits.

[Beagle]

Yep, clear break up through 100 day MA. If its sustained through to Friday afternoon RYM holders appear to have ridden out the correction. Looking at the super charts on ANZ securities and comparing RYM with NZX 50 for the 12 months to 19/11/14 RYM is up 1% and the NZX is up 13%. Meanwhile over in the cheap PE part of the NZX50 I couldn't help notice HNZ is up 27%, PGW 16% and AIR 31%. Interesting albeit small short term analysis on whether cheap PE stocks are a better bet that expensive ones. I expect a basket of those three cheap PE stocks, (which are still cheap), to easily outperform RYM over the next`12 months regardless of whether this RYM correction is over or not. When something is priced for absolute perfection, I can't see where the upside is. Maybe Norah has played havoc with my vision in this sector, only time will tell.

[winner69]

RYM sure on fire the last week .... while SUM still trending down

I still reckon the price will be much lower one day .... that's my plan and sticking to it

[couta1]

RYM sure on fire the last week .... while SUM still trending down

I still reckon the price will be much lower one day .... that's my plan and sticking to it

He says as he tries not to imitate an ostrich or a mule? maybe a bit of both

[troyvdh]

...Without wishing to be repetitive ...and acknowledging the wisdom expressed by many....RYM's performance ..in my opinion will continue to be outstanding ..indeed stellar....for perhaps decades to come...given my limited degree of knowledge of the founders of this company...the only proviso perhaps would be perhaps an unprecedented fall of NZ residential house values...which given NZ's location in the world is probably unlikely....cheers...

Hate to disagree Winner

[winner69]

...Without wishing to be repetitive ...and acknowledging the wisdom expressed by many....RYM's performance ..in my opinion will continue to be outstanding ..indeed stellar....for perhaps decades to come...given my limited degree of knowledge of the founders of this company...the only proviso perhaps would be perhaps an unprecedented fall of NZ residential house values...which given NZ's location in the world is probably unlikely....cheers...

Hate to disagree Winner

Troy I agree whole heartedly with what you say. I have never run said anything bad about the company. It is fantastic company and will continue to churn out increasing profits. Even this year I expect another 20% plus or minus a bit increase in profit.

Ryman is best in breed and the envy of other operators.

My point is that Ryman shareprice cycles through periods of extreme under and over valuation (even though profits keep going up every year) I think it is overvalued at the moment and beginning that cyclical move to being undervalued. It happens quite often. Hence I patiently waiting at the moment.

Ryman probably will be $15 plus sometime in the future. I intend to be a shareholder when that happens, hopefully buying when they have a 6 in front of it, even better a 5

That's my strategy and I sticking to it

[winner69]

He says as he tries not to imitate an ostrich or a mule? maybe a bit of both

Don't get it mate but probably offensive but I am thick skinned

You have your strategy which you sticking to and I don't rubbish you for that.

Check in again when RYM shareprice starts with a 6 - my head might have come out of the sand by then

[troyvdh]

Thanks winner for your reply...For the record I for one hope that RYM never achieve a $15 share price given that (in my believe anyway) NZ folk remain so financially illiterate re finance MKTS that most see a stock at a high dollar value as less value than blah blah...Im sure you get this...And I hasten to add that this ignorance is not likely to improve soon...sadly....My son attended CBHS....last year and left with virtually nil savvy about finances ...other than what I had told him...as I have posted before the last SP split was around $11.30 ?....years ago....cheers