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  1. #2421
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    If the shortage of housing in Auckland is as acute as the experts tell us then stoploss is on the money. Retirees will still be selling their homes - less auctions, more negotiated offers and bargaining? - and RYM and its "imitators" will still thrive. Time and age catches up with all of us!

  2. #2422
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    99% of all retirees buying Ryman units are mortgage free and most have houses worth more than the intended unit purchase.
    Yes, they are the ones who can afford to lower the sell price. NZ has ageing population, no doubt about that!

  3. #2423
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    99% of all retirees buying Ryman units are mortgage free and most have houses worth more than the intended unit purchase.
    Hi mate,

    Over time I think we'll see that percentage change. I'm seeing more people using their homes as ATM machines against my advice. I guess a certain percentage of people learned nothing from the GFC, go figure ?

    Stoploss - I am patient...sad reality is over the last two years the SP hasn't done much which suggests the stock got well ahead of itself 18 months or so ago at $9.00.

  4. #2424
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    Hi mate,



    Stoploss - I am patient...sad reality is over the last two years the SP hasn't done much which suggests the stock got well ahead of itself 18 months or so ago at $9.00.
    Buy at elevated multiples = low (if not negative) returns over the subsequent few years

    In Rym case when pe >30 the next 3 years returns have negative

    Almost a rule, works for markets, stocks and fatten even housing
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  5. #2425
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    Default Beginning of a major correction ?

    http://www.interest.co.nz/property/7...behalf-vendors

    But won't matter as apparently the retirement sector is completely immune to property price corrections

  6. #2426
    ShareTrader Legend Beagle's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Buy at elevated multiples = low (if not negative) returns over the subsequent few years

    In Rym case when pe >30 the next 3 years returns have negative

    Almost a rule, works for markets, stocks and fatten even housing
    Another 18 - 24 months of sideways and we're all good to go on this one mate

  7. #2427
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger View Post
    http://www.interest.co.nz/property/7...behalf-vendors

    But won't matter as apparently the retirement sector is completely immune to property price corrections
    The apartments referred to in the article were hardly representative of the wider Auckland property market - one had a "leaky building" history, one was a leasehold property and in the case of the other two, the agent started the bidding at, or close to, their recent sale prices. Not surprising that no-one was prepared to bid them even higher than that!

    Yes, a correction, probably, but I doubt that we will look back and call it a major correction.

  8. #2428
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    Probably the best commentary on NZ residential property is found in Tony Alexander's BNZ Weekly Overview, which recently started up again after a long break:

    "Just a quick comment regarding the widespread anecdotal evidence we have been receiving for up to three months now regarding fewer people attending Open Homes and a lower proportion of properties selling successfully at auctions. Some people are seeing evidence of prices falling. This is not likely to be the start of a downward trend. Instead it is likely to be asking price cuts by over-optimistic sellers who had been essentially taking the proverbial by holding out for an unrealistic price in the hope that some mug would feel panicked enough to pay through the nose so they avoided missing out. The fundamentals still strongly support prices going higher though, as we have noted for some time now, rising at a slowing pace now that the Reserve Bank has knocked many of the uninformed, undercapitalised people driven by FOMO out of the market. Chinese buyers have also backed off as they see a lengthening series of small roadblocks put in their way, consider wealth lost through China’s sharemarket rout, and struggle to get funds out of China amidst a new crackdown on capital outflows by the authorities."

    Alexander is far closer to the money on property than "Interest.co"

  9. #2429
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    I think Ryman's the cream of the crop in Retirement villages and they will attract the top end with deep pockets. So the oldie looking to sell up out west to buy in Ryman might not be the best example. If an oldie in Epsom cant sell up for 800k then I would start to worry....
    There's many other villages out there to suit different price ranges but Ryman is dear and targets a certain group of buyers.

  10. #2430
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    I spoke with the general manager N.Z. of one of the major real estate franchises last week. Market's turned completely on its head Rodge was what he told me. Its now a buyers market.
    This from a very smart guy who's also one of the top Auckland auctioneer's...been in real estate for 30 years and really knows his stuff. Tony Alexander is a good economist who's relying on official REINZ date that is out of date and will change when official stat's confirm what I'm hearing from smart people on the ground regarding October's conditions. The worm has well and truly turned BIG TIME.
    Last edited by Beagle; 02-11-2015 at 03:07 PM.

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